The mean annual rainfalls for both the locations are more than 1200 mm with a standard deviation (SD) of more than 371 mm and coefficient of variation (CV) of more than 30.3%. The coefficient of variation indicates that the rainfall was highly variable at these two locations. The average annual rainfall varied from 491.7 mm (1981) to 2167.1 (1991) and 234.8 (1989) to 2387.3 mm (1956) at Sagar and Damoh, respectively (Table 1).

The annual and monsoon (23^rd - 39^th SMW) rainfall series were normally distributed. About 90% of annual rainfall is received from the southwest monsoon during monsoon season. Average rainfall during the monsoon season is 1104.5 mm and varied from 440.6 to 1896.3 mm with SD of 320 mm at Sagar. The annual rainfall contribution was 2.5%, 4.4% and 3.5% to the pre-monsoon (10^th - 22^nd SMW), post monsoon (42^nd - 50^th SMW) and winter (51^st - 9^th SMW) season rainfall, respectively. The CV (more than 100%) indicated that the rainfalls during these seasons are highly variable. The rainfall ranged from zero to 201.5 mm, zero to 246.0 mm and zero to 196.2 mm for respective seasons, respectively. Coefficient of skewness and coefficient of kurtosis showed that rainfall series in all the three seasons were not normally distributed. At Damoh, similar pattern of rainfall during monsoon season was observed as at Sagar.

In monsoon season, the highest (1953.4 mm) and lowest (219 mm) rainfall was recorded during the year 1956 and 1989, respectively (Table 1). The potential evapo-transpiration was estimated to be 1457.2 mm and 1476.7 mm for Sagar and Damoh, respectively indicating annual water deficit by 658.8 mm and 634.9 mm for respective locations. Fisher statistics (g₁/SE(g₁) and g₂/SE(g₂)) were computed to test the normality at 95% level of significance. It is evident from the Table 1 that the frequency of rainfall series during post monsoon, pre-mon- soon and winter season were not normally distributed except annual and monsoon season at both the locations. The mean seasonal rainfall varied from 30.5 to 54.4 mm with high degree of variability, since the CV is more than 100%.

The initial rainfall probability {P (W)} of getting 10 mm rainfall per week was 67% and 69% during 25^th and 26^th SMW, respectively at Sagar district (Figure 3) and hence, field preparation should be done during this period. The initial as well as conditional probability of wet week followed by wet week {P (W/W)} of getting 20 mm rainfall was more than 80% in 27^th SMW. Therefore, this week is more suitable for sowing of crops. The top dressing of urea may be done during 32^nd SMW as the {P (W/W)} of getting 20 mm rainfall during this period is more than 95% (Figure 3). Similarly, the conditional probability of dry followed by dry {P (D/D)} of getting 10 mm rainfall is 78% in 35^th (27 August-2 September) SMW (Figure not shown), and hence, pesticides may be sprayed to control insects, pests and diseases in all the affected crops. This period is also suitable for carrying out inter-cultural operations in the crops.

^*, Significant at 5% probability level.

The initial and conditional rainfall probability analysis at Damoh revealed that initial probabilities {P (W)} of getting 10 mm rainfall per week was 76% during 25^th (18-24 June) SMW (Figure 4). Thus, the seed bed preparation could be initiated during 25^th SMW, since an amount of 10 mm rainfall per week can be taken as the minimum requirement for seedbed preparation and even sowing in already tilled fields for rainfed kharif crops. However, sowing can be done during 26^th SMW as the conditional probability of wet week followed by wet week of getting 20 mm rainfall was 76% - 94% during 26^th - 27^th SMW. More than 50% probability of 20 mm rainfall during a week is considered as the wet week and is ideal for the crop sowing operation [22] . The {P (W/W)} of 40 mm rainfall during 27^th to 37^th (10-16 September) SMW was ranged between 56% to 80% (Fig- ure 4), hence, proper drainage provisions should be made in deep and medium black soils. The top dressing of

urea may be done during 32^nd (6-12 August) and 33^rd (13-19 August) SMW as the {P (W/W)} of getting 20 mm rainfall during this period is more than 90% [29] . Similarly, the conditional probability of dry followed by dry {P (D/D)} of getting 10 mm rainfall is 67% and 83% in 34^th (20-26 September) and 39^th (24-30 September) SMW, respectively, and hence, pesticides may be sprayed to control insects, pests and diseases in all the affected crops. Since the conditional probability of getting 10 mm rainfall is less than 20% during the crop season, therefore, intercultural operations may be planned as and when sunny days appears for 2 - 3 days.

The chances of taking rainfed rabi crops are more at Sagar in comparison to Damoh as the conditional probability of wet followed by wet is more than 60% during second week of January. However, at both the locations with the advancement of time, probability of getting rainfall is reducing and it was recorded that from 38^th (17- 23 September) SMW, the initial probability of getting rainfall of 20 mm reduced to 40%, clearly indicating that supplemental irrigation is required for long duration varieties. The study also shows long-term rainfall probability studies may be important parameters for varietal selection to achieve assured production in a particular region. Short duration varieties of rainfed crops should be selected in the above mentioned regions, where, rainfall starts receding within 38^th SMW. Therefore, ICRISAT bred chickpea cultivars, such as, ICCV-96029 (matures within 75 days), ICCV-2 and ICCV-93929 (both matures within 85 days) and IARI bred mustard cultivars like Pusa Agrani, Pusa Mahak, Pusa Tarak, Pusa Mustard 25 and Pusa Mustard 27 (all maturing between 100 - 110 days) should be selected for this region so that terminal droughts may be escaped.

The minimum weekly rainfall amount expected at 60%, 70% and 80% probability level is presented in Table 4 for both locations along with their weekly long-term mean. As discussed above rainfall at 80% probability is assured rainfall and at 50% probability is the median limit for taking risk. At Sagar, the probability of more than 10 mm from 26^th SMW is above 80%, and farmers can initiate their field preparation operations from 26^th week and in subsequent weeks i.e., 27^th (July 2-8) onwards probability of receiving more the 20 mm rainfall is more than 70%, which is ideal week for sowing of kharif crops in the region. The 30^th and 31^st SMW are also ideal time for the crop fertilization based upon the rainfall pattern and intensity. At Damoh, the expected amount of rainfall is 16 mm at 70% probability level during 25^th SMW, sowing of kharif crops can be initiated for early duration crop varieties. Proper drainage network is essential for black soil dominant Damoh district as the expected amount of rainfall at 70% probability level is more than 60 mm during 30^th to 33^rd SMW. Long duration crop varieties can be taken at Damoh in comparison to Sagar as the rainy days are two week more at Damoh. Moreover, chances of taking double cropping are also more at Damoh by taking short duration crop varieties during kharif and early sowing of rabi crops.

At both the location, rainfall in the range of 18.9 to 79.2 mm is expected from 26^th to 37^th week (June 18-September16). Overall expected rainfall days are more than 84 at both the locations suggesting that medium duration varieties of various crops can be ideal in the region. However, at Damoh the expected amount of rainfall at 70% probability level was 16 mm during 25^th ( June 18-24) SMW, suggesting that sowing can be done one week prior in comparison to Sagar. The intermittent rains of more than 20 mm rainfall was also expected at 70% level during 36^th to 37^th SMW, but thereafter probability of getting even 20 mm rainfall per week is not 70%, suggested that long duration varieties may be more suitable with supplemental irrigation.

The prevalent kharif season crops of the region include green gram, black gram, sorghum and maize depending upon the soil type. In view of the above studies, it is suggested that the kharif rainfed crops such as groundnut, black gram, green gram and sesamum should be sown during 27^th SMW in both Sagar and Damoh region. The ideal combination of crops of the regions can be sorghum for the grain purpose intercropped with cowpea for the fodder purpose. Livestock integrated with the agricultural/food production systems is the cornerstone for rural economy of the farmers, therefore, the current suggested cropping systems integrating food-fodder system with rainfall probabilities may fetch an additional green fodder of 150 - 200 q·ha⁻¹ to the farmers apart from the sorghum grain yield and improve their livelihood. Therefore, overall the current study reveals that past rainfall record analysis may be a handy tool for future rainfall probability projections, which alternatively can be of immense importance in the crop and other field operation planning in rainfed agricultural system as well as improving their livelihood.