Natural systems are already responding increasingly making their presence by extreme weather events in the recent decades like floods, droughts, tsunamis, earthquakes along with world’s rivers, lakes, wildlife, glaciers, permafrost, coastal zones, disease carriers and many other elements of the natural and physical environment leading to imbalance and natural hazards. Many activities like UNESCO, UNEP, IPCC and UNHSP at international level during last decade have been developing a basis for the rational use and conservation of the resources of biosphere, to overcome the impacts of climate change for the improvement of the relationship between man and environment within the natural and social [1] . The assessment reports of IPCC 2007 and 2013 have stated that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. Gradually each decade is getting warmer from the previous one. Confidence in precipitation change averaged over global land areas since 1901 is low prior to 1951 and medium afterwards [2] [3] .

The most notable changes observed are related to the urban and hydrological system where urban areas have increased from 100,000 to 5,000,000 and as per United Nation’s projections, half of the urban population would live in urban areas with 85.9% around in 2050 for developing and developed countries. Build up associated with urban areas have also had noticeable change of 145.68% as compared to 54.05% change in Population Growth from 1971 to 1999. Also UN report of 2013 stated that the urban population will increase from 29.1 in 1950 to 66.6 in 2050. As per the State of resource, UNESCO [4] reported that water is predicted to be the primary medium through which early climate change impacts will be felt by people, ecosystems and economies [5] . Hydrology has suffered drastic changes in its components felt changes in recharge that dropped from 45% - 50% in 1961 to −10% to −30% in 2050 as per the UNEP and IGRAC.

Many changes in hydrological cycle are both positive and negative in different aspects of urban and water systems. Increased annual runoff may produce benefits for a variety of both in stream and out-of-stream water users by increasing renewable water resources, but may simultaneously generate harm by increasing flood risk [6] . Water scarcity on the other hand is already becoming a burning issue in most of the cities and countries. Precipitation pattern is also showing a temporal variation in its behavior in many of the urban and rural areas [7] . Second, Rising temperatures are accelerating the hydrological cycle and causing rivers and lakes to freeze later in the autumn. Predictions are already being made for irregular, variant and extreme possibilities of weather events. IPCC 2007 Human activities and urbanization is likely to affect climate change which in result will impose extreme weather events [1] [8] .

Both observational records and climate projections provide strong evidence that freshwater resources are vulnerable, and have the potential to be strongly impacted by the increasing urban areas. The variations in climate change are having impacts on many natural cycles like extreme precipitation-related weather and climate events, observations and reports indicate areas with heavy precipitation increasing intensities, increase in areas affected by droughts, and intense tropical cyclone increase, damaging to crops, soil erosion, land degradation, lower yields, damage to ability of land to cultivate. More intense rainfall events will increase runoff percentages and will overload the capacity of sewer systems and water and wastewater treatment plants more often. One reason is that precipitation variability is very likely to increase, and more frequent floods and droughts are anticipated.

Thus changes in land use and land cover due to urbanization are likely to impact water requirement as some places leading to water scarcity and some with flash floods. Dynamic land use changes and soil transitions bring challenges not only for Social, hydrological, geological and urban Systems but also for over all ecological systems and decision making processes creating an urgent need for planning and developing parallel solutions to changing world.

Urbanization is a major issue in now a day’s scenario and water scarcity and flash floods too are directly linked with urban areas correlating the increasing Build up areas.

However constant increase in urban areas is lacking and ignoring the effects of urbanization and thus hampering the working natural courses of environmental systems like water cycle and continuously harming the environment as well through on surface and sub surface water variations. Though efforts have been constant for creating balance between two, still urbanization being at its fast pace is keeping thoughts and actions behind. Thus spatial planning needs a fast, improved and scientific as well as technical thought for planning and implementation of these balancing ideas in accordance with due consideration to maintaining natural regime along with development.

To maintain balance between ever dynamic population increase and decrease of underground water availability, the gap between increases in population resulting more Build up areas and rate of water availability has to be reduced.

Urban planners have to be updated with natural cycle and modern means as well as best technologies for maintaining the balance between urban system and natural system, but there is a huge gap between basic main streaming of knowledge of natural processes with physical planning studies and its requirement for balanced development.

Figure 2 depicts the broad methodology adopted to observe the correlations between soil, development and water. The study was carried out by observing individual systems first and then their interactions with other systems with most affecting variables. Urbanization, soil properties and water moisture content with water table variations were most observed parameters for a span of 40 years to get correlations among systems.

The two methods for simulation used were:

1) By keeping precipitation and slope, width constant for respective years and;

2) By changing precipitation on hourly and daily basis to observe long term run off changes and short term peak flow changes.

Model results obtained were tested for accuracy by regression model and the difference between observed and simulated Hydrographs were checked for least error.

The runoff changes for constant precipitation with changing Build up were analyzed first. The combinations of inter location runoff and the intra location runoff were used to form the Correlation Equation and the constants (y = Ax² + bx + c) where y is runoff and x is Build up.

The correlation observations for each catchment for each decade was plotted

to see the trend line and the resulting equation. To calibrate the hydrologic model the LULC data was prepared in an 8 m grid. The time series data was made for hourly rainfall event.

Finally, the simulation was run for different years as per conditions prevailing for that specified times and the continuity errors as well as flow routing errors were minimized to get accurate results. The obtained report of the rainfall runoff was then observed and compared for viewing results and changes in the parameters. The correlation analysis was performed to obtain a correlation and best fit method was used to get minimum error value.

The correlation thus formed was observed for various catchments individually, i.e., inter location and then with others with same characteristics over all the study area, i.e., intra location.

The simulation was run with following time series:

1) Critical rainfall runoff analysis from June to September;

2) Critical rainfall runoff analysis for peak hour (24 hours);

3) Rainfall-Runoff analysis with varying precipitation;

4) Rainfall-Runoff analysis for Build up as per rule and Build up as per actual.

The study area selected covers two Urban Areas constituting several wards of Bhopal District, State Madhya Pradesh, and Country India (Figure 3). The areas selected have two different urban Catchment forms. One with developing character with specific geological setup and other with developed character and different geological set-up. Both areas have recently being facing water level drop; one has a recharge zone character and other have discharge zone character. The wards coming within these natural boundaries have been taken for observation and analysis. It consists of Area Colony, Shahpura, ChunaBhatti and Manit. The study area comprises of Natural Drainage of Kaliasot River along with Kaliasot Dam, Bhadbhada area (Soil way of Upper lake), Southern Portion of Upper Lake, Hills like Samasgarh, Forest Areas near Chichli, Nayagoan, The study area spreads over 117,800 sq.kms. Covering major portion of urban areas some developed according to physical planning aspects whereas some developed drastically in short span, of the Bhopal district (M.P.). It refers to Survey of India Toposheet No. 55 E/8 and bounded by latitudes 23˚10'N to 23˚15'N and longitudes 77˚23'30''E to 77˚27'E.

Bhopal-India (highlighted in Figure 3).

The watershed map of Bhopal (1990), in which different catchment were identified for analysis of water prospect map and hydrogeology wells (Figure 4) of the city for maximum recharge potential and areas experiencing sudden decline in water table. Some areas which had been showing satisfactory reactions to urbanization processes were also selected to observe the basic factor underlying their performance in natural as well as urban cycle. Also the ward map (localities demarcated as wards by Bhopal Municipal corporation at local level plan) for the

same area was obtained to ascertain the areas already developed and areas still developing.

Peak runoffs in almost all catchments have shown changes out of which areas

with basalt and sandstone covered with less rough areas had maximum peak discharges. Infiltration has been constantly reducing in years as evaporation and peak flows

After observing the behavior of soils, Build up and land cover the best combination of all four were sorted to its best as shown in Table 6. The roughness values demonstrate the land cover in form of vegetation and bushes.

Sharma, S. (2017) Geological Behaviours in Urban Areas for Surface Runoff and Recharge. Open Journal of Soil Science, 7, 181-201. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojss.2017.78014