The development agenda for Kenya is being widely affected by climate change and its resultant impacts, which could cost the economy a significant percentage of the country’s GDP. Thus, the cumulative impacts of climate change have the potential to reverse much of the progress made towards the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Kenya’s development blueprint-Vi- sion 2030.

Most of the people in Kenya are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because of their poverty; with about 46% of the population classified as poor [1] . The reliance of the majority of the population on rain-fed agriculture and livestock production puts them in a vulnerable position first because of the negative impacts that adverse weather conditions have on their production systems and also due to fluctuating market prices for their produce, both locally and internationally.

Mean annual rainfall in Kenya follows a bimodal seasonal pattern with the long rains generally occurring in March to May, while the short rains occur in October to December. These seasonal patterns have become unreliable resulting in frequent crop failures. Most farmers also lack relevant weather forecast data and information that would assist them to reduce their losses and/or to diversify to more suitable crops, such as drought resistant crops during the dry periods and the slow-maturing varieties when the conditions are wetter than normal.

In general, therefore, climatic fluctuations have significant impacts on Kenyan society, via agriculture, food security, water, health, natural disasters and the environment. Climate thus sits at the nexus of two principal concerns, poverty and sustainable development. For instance, extreme climate events in the country are often associated with very severe socio-economic impacts that include lack of food, water, energy, and many other basic needs including destruction of infrastructure as well as loss of lives. Such impacts have tended to retard socio-economic growth of the country with the ultimate enhancement of poverty.

Vulnerability mapping, climate monitoring, prediction and timely early warn- ing of the extreme climate events are therefore, some of the best strategies for mitigating their negative impact on humanity, property and the environment as well as taking advantage of any positive impacts. Accurate and timely information on the characteristics of the extreme climate events including the associated vulnerabilities are, therefore, crucial inputs in sustainable development planning.

This paper, therefore, addresses the vulnerability and impacts aspects with the goal of generating knowledge necessary to inform the allocation of resources as well as developing policies and adaptation plans for vulnerable areas, sectors, groups, etc., to aid in minimizing climate change risks in the country.

“Climate change vulnerability” is the degree to which a system is susceptible to adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes. It is driven by dimensions of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. In other words, it is a function of these three parameters as presented in Equation (1) and empirically in Equation (2).

where:

V = Vulnerability to climate change,

E = Exposure to climatic stimuli,

S = Sensitivity to climatic stimuli,

A = Adaptive Capacity.

A number of studies have been undertaken in the country that are related to the current study but have not adequately addressed the issue of climate change vul- nerability and impacts assessment, which is the subject of this paper.

Climate Network Africa [4] has documented the potential impacts of climate change in Kenya in a number of sectors including: energy, water resources, biodiversity, forests, wildlife and tourism, agriculture, and human health.

The Drought Monitoring Centre-Nairobi (DMCN) [5] undertook a project on factoring of weather and climate information into disaster management policy in Kenya with a view to reducing the impacts and vulnerabilities of various socio- economic sectors to climate induced hazards. These sectors included water resources; agriculture and food security; natural resources, environment, forestry, tourism and wildlife; human settlement, health and public safety; energy, industry, transport and communication. The report has documented sectoral vulnerabilities, identified gaps and recommended strategies to integrate climate/ weather into development planning policies so as to make the country resilient to the real and perceived weather/climate change shocks. Traditional climate monitoring and prediction methods continue to contribute significantly to the management of the various climate related activities in Kenya, thus contributing to the resilience of some communities to climate related shocks.

DMCN [6] undertook a pilot project to understand how communities in Western Kenya use indigenous methods to detect the vulnerable periods to climate shocks and the management practices that ensure resilience of the communities. The project was intended to build a partnership between the climate scientists and traditional climate forecasters and rainmakers in Kenya with a view to improving the dissemination and application of climate outlooks in the country so as to enhance resilience. The report has useful information for understanding the traditional methods used not only for predicting seasonal rains, but also for mana- ging associated disasters.

A Drought Post-Disaster Needs Analysis (PDNA) was conducted in Kenya [7] at the request and direction of the Ministry of Finance with technical support from the European Union, United Nations, and World Bank. The aim of this assessment has been to develop a quantitative estimation of the impact of the drought on the socio-economic development of the country and recommendations of immediate recovery and long-term resilience-building in the country. The findings that have emerged show, in no uncertain terms, Kenya’s vulnerability to droughts in which the country has experienced drought of varying intensities across various areas.

A World Bank report [8] which is a flagship product of the Africa Water Resources Management Initiative (AWRMI) prepared with the support of the Ke- nya Country Team, Mainstreaming Fund for the Environment, the Bank Netherlands Water Partnership Program, World Bank Institute and Environment Department, and SIDA―is a critical step in the World Bank’s policy dialogue on water resources management reforms and investment planning that was at the time being promoted by the Government of Kenya through the Ministry of Water and Irrigation. The report represents a pioneering attempt by the AWRMI to focus on the economic implications of water resource management in Kenya (and indeed in Africa), looking specifically at two of the most important water-related issues that make the economy and people of Kenya highly vulnerable―the effects of climate variability and the steady degradation of the nation’s water resources. In both areas, the report finds significant economic impacts on water resources by both drought and floods―a very serious drag on the country’s economic perfor- mance.

A study on the “Economics of Climate Change in Kenya” [9] funded by DFID and DANIDA and undertaken by the Stockholm Environment Institute (led by the Oxford Office, in conjunction with the SEI office in Nairobi) together with international and local partners, has assessed the impacts and economic costs of climate change, the costs and benefits of adaptation and pathways of low carbon growth for Kenya on a number of sectors including coastal zones; agriculture; energy; health; extreme events; water resources; and ecosystem services. The outcome of the study provides the following key messages for the country:

1) Existing climate variability has significant economic costs in Kenya.

2) Future climate change will lead to additional and potentially very large eco- nomic costs.

3) Adaptation can reduce the economic impacts of climate change but it has a cost. The costs of adaptation are still emerging and are uncertain. However, this does not mean that no action should be taken. Instead it requires more robust stra- tegies.

The Kenya Government and DMCN [10] undertook a study to enhance the capacity of the country to manage and cope with flood related disasters. The country had identified that there was a need to assess the vulnerability of the population living in the flood prone areas of Kenya, develop risk zone maps, review, collate and synthesize all studies/activities related to flooding in western Kenya and also to examine the reasons for continued flooding despite numerous past studies/ac- tivities among others.

Mombasa city has a long history of frequent natural disasters associated with extreme climatic events. A GIS based study [11] , provides a first quantitative estimate, both now and through the 21st century, of the number of people and associated economic assets exposed to coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storm surges. It gives a good indication of the potential impacts that the city might experience and indicates the magnitude of impacts which need to be considered in planning decisions. The analysis shows that the projected socioeconomic change and the location of population growth play a significant role in the overall increase in population and asset exposure to extreme water levels. This study concludes that significant numbers of people in Mombasa are, and will continue to be, vulnerable to flooding due to extreme water levels during this century. However, forward planning to address projected population growth can reduce exposure levels to a significant degree. Appropriate adaptation measures, such as the construction of defenses, can be expected to reduce the flooding risk but this was not considered as part of this study.

Otiende [12] has undertaken a case study to assess the physical and economic impacts of climate change hazards with a focus on riparian floods and estimated cost of adapting to the present and future flood risk in Kenya. The study attemp- ted to quantify the economic cost of actual impacts and the losses accrued from the deviation from likely economic activity as a result of specific flood events wi- thin the decade 1997-2008. The 1997/98 El Niño and the 2006 flood events associated with widespread impacts across the country were considered. The geogra- phical focus of the study was the Budalang’i and Kano flood plains in Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in western Kenya and Tana River flood plains in the south- eastern part of the country. The study has revealed that the high vulnerability to flood risk in western Kenya is as a result of high poverty rates, poor land use pa- tterns (deforestation and settling and cultivating along riverbanks), low education and illiteracy levels and the state of infrastructure that is in neglect.

In this section, results are systemically presented and discussed on the basis of the objectives already outlined.

The author would like to thank all the institutions and personnel who in one way or another played a role in ensuring the relevant data used in this study was availed. I commend my fellow researchers at the Institute for Meteorological Training and Research for their constant encouragement as I continued to develop this paper. Last but not least, my sincere gratitude goes to the anonymous reviewer(s) whose comments considerably improved the manuscript.

Marigi, S.N. (2017) Climate Change Vulnerability and Impacts Analysis in Kenya. American Journal of Cli- mate Change, 6, 52-74 https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.61004