Climate changes are the main motivation for destruction of ecosystems; in fact the effects of these changes on biodiversity and ecosystems are considered as the most challenging cases in present century. Therefore, since the lakes are the most important services and functions of ecosystems, the effect of climate change on water level fluctuations of Tashk and Bakhtegan Lakes was analyzed as a natural ecosystem in this essay. For this purpose, the data related to six parameters of temperature, precipitation, evaporation, sunshine hours and snowy days were selected during 25-year statistical period (1985-2010), and Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the trend of changes in each time series. Inflow system of the lake, the volume of evaporation and area of water were simulated and fluctuation of lake was also assessed by using dynamic analysis method and to achieve to lake level and analysis of its fluctuations in period under study, the satellite images of Landsat 7 and ETM 5-1 were used in two high waters of April 1987 and April 2010. Results indicate that the lake level has been dropped 6 meters in 2010 compared to the similar period of 1986; in wet years that the rainfall is more than 618/5 mm, high water level is the lake conditions in all months of the year; unlike in most years when rainfall occurred under average of 365.4 mm, lake is faced with dry condition that is mainly due to the reduce of icemaker area, rainfall reduction, increase in evaporation and temperature. These conditions show the extent to which the lake is fragile and affected by climatic conditions that the most obvious evidence of it is decline of genetic storages such as Tashk and Bakhtegan lakes and subsequently instability of the region and reducing of services and ecosystems’ functions.
System Analysis Simulation Tashk and Bakhtegan Lakes Climate Change1. Introduction
In order to enhance and protect the resilience of the Great Lakes, predicting future outcomes of climatic changes, particularly in already degraded geographical areas is instrumental to success. These changes include warming air and water temperatures; shifts in the timing, severity and frequency of precipitation events and storms; varying lake levels; and reductions in lake ice cover [1] . Surface water bodies are a key component of a wide variety of ecosystem services (e.g., [2] [3] ). Lake water level regimes are influenced by climate, hydrology and land use [4] . Increased temperatures could have implications for Great Lakes water levels [5] . This issue is even more crucial when it comes to arid and semi-arid regions of the world [6] [7] [8] . Actually, in recent years fluctuations of the basin water levels are influenced by changes in precipitation, evaporation, and evapo-trans- piration [9] and these water bodies have been significantly affected by global warming and climate change [10] , and lake levels are likely to continue to fluctuate. On the other hand, due to increasing water consumption in dry regions, lakes and other aquatic ecosystems are under increasing pressure [11] [12] [13] . Therefore, with respect to the destruction aquaticecoseco system and knowing this subject that climate change has a significant impact on the natural hydrological cycle and amplifies water scarcity in (semi)-arid regions [14] [15] [16] , understanding the effects of temperature increases on patterns of biodiversity is of fundamental importance to quantifying the ecological and economic risks of climate change [17] that the responses in lake water levels can be used as an indicator to assess the overall regional hydrological impacts of climate change, land use change and river regime modifications [4] [11] [13] [18] - [23] .
According to the above information and with respect to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on biodiversity and eco system processes, among all the effects of climate changes the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems are among the key reasons for concern about climate change [17] . Significant impacts of climate change on biodiversity have been observed already [24] [25] and future potential changes in climate will adversely affect species and habitats [26] [27] . On the other word, human-forced climate change and ongoing environmental degradation leading to habitat loss and fragmentation threaten the future of the world’s biodiversity [28] [29] . These threats include extinction, decreased population abundance, reduced genetic diversity, lower reproductive success, lower dispersal ability, increased vulnerability to stochastic events, increased susceptibility to invasive species, simplified trophic structure and altered interspecies interactions [30] [31] and climate change is an important cause of the irreversible transformation of habitats, of the rapid extinction of species [32] . Generally, the experts believe that climate change will become increasingly important among the major drivers of direct (and in-direct) habitat and species loss [33] [34] , along with cascading impacts on other eco system services [35] . According to fact that the climate change entailing likely increases in temperature and regional and seasonal changes in precipitation [36] , ecosystems and their services are likely to suffer additional stresses [37] [38] [39] and continuing increase temperature present century. Accessing data relating to the latest status of water bodies in these regions has always been a challenge [40] . Hence, it is of great importance to acquire a full archive of these changes for environmental management and planning purposes [41] [42] . Because severe impacts in lake ecological [43] and socio-economic status have been reported for many large and small lakes worldwide, such as the Aral Sea in Asia [44] - [47] , Lake Chad in Africa [48] [49] and the Great Salt Lake [50] [51] and the Salton Sea [52] [53] in the United States. Climate change has been a topic of interest for many researchers: the effects of climate change to increase level of Victoria Lake in east of Africa were analyzed by Mistry and Conway (2003). The results showed that there were direct relation and correlation between fluctuation of lake’s level and precipitation on the lake surface [54] . Findings of Guo et al. (2006) showed that because of severe impact of region’s weather on water surface of Poyang Lake and water sources in China, it is expected that the hydrological processes and water evacuation to the lake will be changed in the future [55] . Mendoza et al. (2006) in an effort analyzed the reasons of Cuitzeo lake’s changes in Mexico; they used statistical models to link fluctuations of water level to rainfall and temperature; for this purpose the time series was used [56] . Ryner et al. (2007) in the post-glacial warm period studied the restoration of local response of lake to regional climate change and hydrological instability [57] . Motiee and Makbin (2009) also found that the climate change causes to reduce 50 cm water level of the Superior Lake located on North America that is the lowest amount in the past 81 years. They also found that in a short period of time, water level of lake has been decreased one centimeter in every year and given to obtain results they found that these changes can indicate signs of climate change phenomenon in the studied area [58] . Zilefac (2010) showed that by reducing rainfall and increasing temperature the average depth of Chad Lake has fallen from about 7 meter to 1.5 meter [59] . Njaya et al. (2011) stated that average depth of Chilwa Lake has been decreased from 0 to 12 meters between 1960 and 2000 [60] , Huang et al. (2011) considered the temperature and precipitation as the most important factors affecting on fluctuations of Cottonwood Lake in United State [61] . Mekonnen et al. (2012) pointed out that depth of Naivasha lake has been decreased 4 meter between 1965 and 2001 [62] and finally Zaviska et al. (2015) by using results of several indexes analysis (palynology, sedimentology, chemical composition and paleontology) clearly showed that weather has been the main motivation of change in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems as well as geomorphologic processes of eastern Poland basin [63] .
Therefore, considering the fact that the Middle East especially Iran is one of the most important areas that is affected by global warming, and is considered one of the most vulnerable areas affected by climate change due to reduced rainfall, and in the other hand lakes and ponds in arid regions are the field of important ecosystem services, such as weather moderating and food supply and have determinative role as a resources of surface waters. Tashk and Parishan lake is a freshwater wetland located in southern west of Fars province that has not been of interest unlike Uremia lake, this lake is very susceptible to climate changes for reason that the lake basin is closed and it has greatly been changed over the past decades, for this reason it has been studied. Given to the importance of climate change in water crisis of Tashk and Bakhtegan lakes it has been tried to pay attention to analysis and simulation of lake level under conditions of climate change after assessing of basin climate change by using output of data- driven mode.
2. Procedures and Methods2.1. The Studied Area and Data Usage
Tashk and Bakhtegan lakes located in southern west of Fars province is the most important habitats and is considered as a second largest lake inside of Iran and is located about 1476 to 3909 height. These lakes are fed by some rivers and precipitation on its surface and surrounding area, but during the evaporation process a significant amount of water exited from this system. Generally the extents of catchment are about 2721.656 hectare and are fed by Kor River. The studied catchment basin is located between latitude of 29˚2'50" to 31˚14'29" Northern and longitude of 51˚42'15" to 54˚31'10" Eastern (Figure 1).
2.2. Method
For doing this study, the monthly data of temperature average, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine hours and snowfall days of synoptic stations affiliated with the Country General administration of Meteorology as well as monthly flow rate data and evaporation-measuring of station subordinate of Ministry of Power during 1985-2010 were used (Table 1). And to achieve the area of lakes and analyzing their fluctuation in the under studied period the satellite images of Landsat 7 and ETM 5-1 have been used.
In assessing the regional effects of climate change, first of all time series of climate variables is needed. For making these data, it is required to use the statistical methods for study the past trend and generalization of it in future of produced data; for analyzing the studied climatic elements and to measure the occurred changes in basins; Mann-Kendall trend test is used. This test was suggested by World Meteorological Organization in 1988 that in a significant assessment the climate data series trend is used in many studies. In such a way that the statistical series are arranged and ranked in ascending order, in this test random data are specified by lack of process. Mann-Kendall rank correlation is such a ranking correlation that will be obtained given to the numerical rating from 1 to Equation (1)
In this equation b1 is number of similar data (duplication), n is length of statistical period, sgn is algebra symbol of both couples undergoing ratings in which it means rating difference is i-th and j-th that the fourth relation is governed in it.
For analyzing the slope value of timeline available in meteorological data as well as output of system’s dynamics analysis the univariate linear regression was used Equation (2).
Location of Tashk and Bakhtegan catchment basin in Iran and its height con- dition.
Introduction and locations of used stations in research
In the above formula y is dependent factor, a is intercept, b is slope of the line and X shows independent factor. In this formula a and b are obtained from Equation (3) and (4):
Standardized Precipitation Index [SPI]:
To analyze the droughts and drought severity in the region the standardized precipitation index [SPI] was used. This index is the most important index of drought assessment that was invented by Maki et al. [179-184: 1993]. This index is dimensionless that is calculated from irregularities of separated and converted data of precipitation which is divided on the standard deviation of rainfall Equation (5).
In which SPI is standardized precipitation index, p is annual precipitation, is statistical period precipitation average and sd is standard deviation of statistical period precipitation. This index is applied based on the probability of rainfall for different time scales that it can also predict drought conditions before outbreak of the event and it can help to estimate drought severity. In the following in order to achieve to lake level and analyzing its fluctuations in period under study, thesatellite images of Landsat 7 and ETM 5-1 were used in two high water of [April 1985 and April 2010].
2.3. Climate Analysis of Tashk and Bakhtegan Basin
To analysis climate change in the region and its effect on lakes and its role on environmental instability, changes process of rainfall, temperature, evaporation, sunshine hours and snowy day’s parameters were studied. For this purpose, synoptic monthly data with 25 years statistical period have been used. Monthly data of catchment basin of Tashk and Bakhtegan were considered as independent parameters and their time series were analyzed during the desired period. Climate parameters of Tashk and Bakhtegan basin were monthly evaluated (Table 2), so that in monthly scale, the average temperature of basin is increased to 0.004 centigrade by 0.32 trends; the amount of basin rainfall and snowy days respectively decreased to 0.05 and 0.01 mm and its trend were 0.05 and 0.09. Sunshine hours and evaporation is also increasing monthly at an average rate of 0.1and 0.05 and by increasing trend about 0.05 and 0.08 in month. The monthly humidity average has a negative slope of 0.02 and per month 0.003 mm reduction. The basin also has faced with inflow reduction with 0.1 slope and increase in outflow with slope of 0.1. Flow rate of basin as well as blue expanse level with 0.9 trends are decreasing, Figure 2 shows monthly changes of time series of climate elements in annual scale of Tashk and Bakhtegan catchment basin during period of 1985-2010.
2.4. Analyzing of Drought Severity in Tashk and Bakhtegan Basin
In this study, the standardized precipitation index was used for analyzing the basin droughts of under studied lakes. For this purpose, SPI drought index
Monthly changes of time series of annual climate elements of Tashk and Bakhtegan catchment basin during the period of 1985-2010
calculated in annual scale and different precipitation regimes of basins were calculated based on it and dry year and wet year were obtained based on different conditions monitoring. Therefore, by using SPI index, dry years of basin was analyzed and by considering the amounts of calculated annual SPI it was found that the years of 1992-2003 and 2006-2011 are the periods of drought in the region (Table 3). Given to Figure 3 the amount of dryness is increasing with amount of 0.04 in month.
The most severe dry year was recorded in 2008 with precipitation amounts of 73.07 mm. According to the results obtained from the droughts the severity and frequency of droughts is increasing in Tashk region. Driest year is related to
Test of climate parameters change trend by using Mann-Kendall test during the period of 1986-2010 in monthly scale
Parameter
Trend analysis
Parameter
Trend analysis
0.160
Outflow
−0.058
Rainfall
−0.096
Snow days
0.032
Temperature
0.082
Sun hour
0.053
Evaporation
0.025
Humidity
−0.102
The volume of rainfall
−0.44
Area
−0.11
The volume of evaporation
−0.78
Level
−0.163
Flow rate
−0.089
Drought index
−0.199
Inflow
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