<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!DOCTYPE article  PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "http://dtd.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en" article-type="research article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">AM</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Applied Mathematics</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2152-7385</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Scientific Research Publishing</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4236/am.2015.610158</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">AM-59962</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Physics&amp;Mathematics</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>
 
 
  Stability Analysis of a Delayed HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Vertical Transmission
 
</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>ohragul</surname><given-names>Osman</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xamxinur</surname><given-names>Abdurahman</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><addr-line>College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail:<email>xamxinur@sina.com(XA)</email>;</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>08</day><month>09</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>06</volume><issue>10</issue><fpage>1781</fpage><lpage>1789</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>7</day>	<month>April</month>	<year>2015</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>accepted</day>	<month>22</month>	<year>September</year>	</date><date date-type="accepted"><day>25</day>	<month>September</month>	<year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>&#169; Copyright  2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. </copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><license><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>
 
 
  A delayed 
  <em>HI</em>
  <em>V/A</em>
  <em>IDS</em> epidemic model with treatment and vertical transmission is investigated. The model allows some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase; next generation of infected individuals may be infected and it will take them some time to get maturity and infect others. Mathematical analysis shows that the global dynamics of the spread of the 
  <em>HIV/AIDS</em> are completely determined by the basic reproduction number 
  <em>R<sub>0</sub></em> for our model. If 
  <em>R<sub>0</sub></em> &lt; 1 then disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas the unique infected equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if 
  <em>R<sub>0</sub></em> &gt; 1.
 
</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>&lt;i&gt;HIV/AIDS&lt;/i&gt; Epidemic Model</kwd><kwd> Vertical Transmission</kwd><kwd> Basic Reproduction Number</kwd><kwd> Time Delay</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><body><sec id="s1"><title>1. Introduction</title><p>Mathematical models play an important role in the study of the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS, and in some sense, delay models give better compatibility with reality, as they capture the dynamics from the time of infection to the infectiousness. Some HIV/AIDS models are introduced in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref1">1</xref>] -[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref5">5</xref>] . In recent years, a few studies of vertical transmission have been conducted to describe the effects of various epidemiological and demographical factors [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref6">6</xref>] - [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref8">8</xref>] , and some models considered vertical transmission with time delay [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref9">9</xref>] [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref10">10</xref>] . Some specific HIV models with imperfect vaccine were introduced in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref11">11</xref>] - [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref13">13</xref>] .</p><p>In [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref1">1</xref>] , L. Cai and X. Li studied local and global stability of the equilibria of a SIJA model with treatment:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula334"><label>(1)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x6.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>In model (1), it is assumed that some individuals with the symptomatic phases J can be transformed into asymptomatic individuals I after treatment and they get the result that when <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x7.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and if <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x8.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.</p><p>In [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref9">9</xref>] , Ram Naresh et al. considered the following SIA model with vertical transmission:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula335"><label>(2)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x9.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Here, the authors assume that a fraction of newborns, who sustain treatment, join the infective class while others, who do not sustain treatment, join the AIDS class after getting sexual maturity. The infectives through vertical transmission at any time t are given by<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x10.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. The authors proved the local and global stability of disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium under some conditions. Inspired by these works, we consider an HIV/AIDS model with vertical transmission and with time delay.</p><p>The organization of the paper is as follows. In the next section we present the model with delay. Section 3 presents the basic properties of the model. In Section 4, we analyze local and global stability of equilibrium points. In the last section, we present a brief conclusion.</p></sec><sec id="s2"><title>2. Mathematical Model</title><p>We propose an HIV/AIDS model which incorporates time delay during which a newly born infected child attains sexual maturity and becomes infectious. In this model, the sexually mature population is divided into four subclasses: the susceptibles (S), the asymptomatic infectives (I), the symptomatic infectives (J) and full-blown AIDS group (A). The number of total population is denoted by<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x11.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, for any time t. We assume that the susceptibles become HIV infected via sexual contacts with infectives. It is also assumed that all newborns are infected at birth<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x12.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. It is reasonable to assume that full-blown AIDS patients are sexually inactive and symptomatic stage patients feel uncomfortable (some may know they are AIDS) and the possibility of producing children is small, so can be taken negligible. We also assume that a fraction of infected newborns, who sustain treatment, joins the asymptomatic infective class while others, who do not sustain treatment, joins AIDS class after getting sexual maturity. The infectives through vertical transmission at any time t is given by<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x13.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, because those who are infected at time <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x14.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> becomes infectoius (asymptomatic stage infectious) at time t, if they do not develop to AIDS patient by that time. The fraction of infectives which became AIDS patient during the period of getting sexual maturity, if they survive to the maturity, joins to the AIDS class. However, for the model to be biologically reasonable, it may be more realistic to assume that not all those infected will survive after <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x15.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> time units, and this claim support the introduction of the survival term<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x16.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Thus, in our model the term <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x17.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> also represents the introduction of infectives through vertical transmission. If the birth rate of newborns <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x18.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> equals to zero, then our model will back to the model (1).</p><p>With the above considerations and assumptions, the spread of the disease is assumed to be governed by the following model:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula336"><label>(3)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x19.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x20.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is the recruitment rate of the population, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>is the death rate. c is the average number of contacts of an individual per unit of time. <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>and <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x23.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> are the probability of disease transmission per contact by an infective in the first stage and in the second stage, respectively. <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x23.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x24.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>and <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x23.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x24.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x25.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> are transfer rate from the asymptomatic phase I to the symptomatic phase J and from the symptomatic phase to the AIDS cases, respectively. <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x23.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x24.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x25.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x26.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>is transformation rate from the symptomatic phase J to asymptomatic phase I. d is the disease-related death rate of the AIDS cases. <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x23.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x24.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x25.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x26.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x27.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>is the birth rate of infected newborns, p is the fraction of infected newborns joining the asymptomatic infective class after getting sexual maturity and remaining part <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x23.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x24.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x25.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x26.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x27.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x28.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> of the infected newborns joins the AIDS class after getting sexual maturity<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x23.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x24.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x25.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x26.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x27.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x28.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x29.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. It is also assumed that all the parameters of the model are non-negative. Based on it’s biological meaning, we always assume that<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x23.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x24.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x25.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x26.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x27.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x28.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x29.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x30.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p></sec><sec id="s3"><title>3. Basic Properties</title><p>For model (2), let the initial condition be<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x32.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x32.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x33.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x32.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x33.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x34.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>for all<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x32.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x33.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x34.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x35.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, with<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x32.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x33.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x34.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x35.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x36.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Then, it is clear that the solution <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x32.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x33.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x34.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x35.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x36.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x37.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> of the model (3) remain positive for all time<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x32.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x33.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x34.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x35.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x36.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x37.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x38.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>Let<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x39.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, then</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula337"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x40.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>which gives,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula338"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x41.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Define</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula339"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x42.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>This implies that if <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x43.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> all solutions of model (3) starting in <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x43.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x44.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> are bounded and eventually enter the attracting set<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x43.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x44.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x45.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>It is reasonable to assume that the general death rate <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x46.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is greater than the birth rate of infected newborns<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x46.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x47.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, that is<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x46.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x47.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x48.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. In some models, death rate equal to birth rate. However, in this model, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x46.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x47.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x48.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x49.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>is smaller than birth rate. Below we assume<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x46.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x47.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x48.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x49.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x50.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>Since the variable A of model (3) does not appear in the first three equation, in the subsequent analysis, we only consider the submodel:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula340"><label>(4)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x51.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Model (4) always has a disease-free equilibrium<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x52.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Further we define the basic reproduction number <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x52.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x53.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> as follows.</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula341"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x54.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>By straightforward computation, when <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x55.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> model (4) has the unique positive equilibrium<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x55.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x56.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula342"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x57.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula></sec><sec id="s4"><title>4. Stability Analysis</title><p>First we will study the local and global stability of disease free equilibrium<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x58.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>The variational matrix of model (4) is given by</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula343"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x59.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Theorem 4.1. If<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x60.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, the disease free equilibrium <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x60.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x61.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is locally asymptotically stable.</p><p>Proof. The Jacobian matrix corresponding to model (4) about <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x62.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> as follows,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula344"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x63.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x64.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>,<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x64.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x65.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>The characteristic equation of this matrix is given by<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x66.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, where I is the unit matrix.</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula345"><label>(5)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x67.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula346"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x68.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Clearly, one root of this equation is<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x69.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. So we consider the following equation.</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula347"><label>(6)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x70.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>If<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x71.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, the equation becomes</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula348"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x72.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Since</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula349"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x73.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>when<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x74.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, notice that<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x74.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x75.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>,<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x74.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x75.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x76.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Hence the roots of this equation have negative real part by the Hurwitz criterion.</p><p>If<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x77.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, we assume that <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x77.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x78.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is the root of characteristic Equation (6), then <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x77.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x78.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x79.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> satisfies</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula350"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x80.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Separating the real and imaginary parts, we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula351"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x81.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Eliminating <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x82.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> by squaring and adding above the two equation, we get that</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula352"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x83.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Let<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x84.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, then this equation becomes</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula353"><label>(7)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x85.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Through simple computation, we can found that all the coefficients of this equation is positive, so Equation (7) have no solution, it implies that Equation (6) have not the root like<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x86.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Hence all roots of (6) have negative real part.</p><p>We are now in a position to investigate the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x87.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>Theorem 4.2. If<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x88.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, then the infection free equilibrium <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x88.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x89.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is globally asymptotically stable.</p><p>Proof. Consider the following Lyapunov functional.</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula354"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x90.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Calculating the derivative of L along with the solution of model (4), we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula355"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x91.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>This implies that <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x92.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> when<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x92.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x93.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, the equality <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x92.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x93.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x94.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> holds if and only if<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x92.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x93.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x94.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x95.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, the maximal</p><p>invariant set of <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x96.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is the singleton<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x96.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x97.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Hence <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x96.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x97.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x98.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is globally asymptotically stable by the LaSalle invariance principle [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref14">14</xref>] .</p><p>Now, when <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x99.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> we will study the local and global stability of<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x99.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x100.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>Theorem 4.3. If<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x101.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, the infected equilibrium <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x101.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x102.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is locally asymptotically stable.</p><p>Proof. For this purpose, we obtain the Jacobian matrix corresponding to model (4) about <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x103.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> as follows,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula356"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x104.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x105.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x105.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x106.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>,<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x105.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x106.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x107.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>The characteristic equation of this matrix is</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula357"><label>(8)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x108.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula358"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x109.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Notice that</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula359"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x110.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Hence</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula360"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x111.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>when<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x112.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, the characteristic Equation (8) yields</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula361"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x113.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula362"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x114.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Obviously, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x115.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>and<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x115.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x116.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. This implies that when <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x115.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x116.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x117.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> and<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x115.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x116.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x117.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x118.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x115.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x116.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x117.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x118.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x119.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>is locally asymptotically stable by the Hurwitz criterion.</p><p>Now we study the stability behavior of <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x120.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> in the case<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x120.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x121.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>We assume that <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x122.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is the root of characteristic equation, then <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x122.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x123.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> satisfies</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula363"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x124.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Separating the real and imaginary parts, we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula364"><label>(9)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x125.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula365"><label>(10)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x126.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Eliminating <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x127.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> by squaring and adding (9) and (10), we get the equation determining for <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x127.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x128.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> as,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula366"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x129.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula367"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x130.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Substituting <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x131.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> in above Equation, we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula368"><label>(11)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x132.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>when<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x133.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, through simple computation we can see that<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x133.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x134.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x133.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x134.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x135.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x133.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x134.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x135.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x136.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, in this circumstance (11) has not positive root. So all roots of (8) has negative real part.</p><p>Next, we consider the global stability of <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x137.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> when<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x137.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x138.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>Theorem 4.4. If<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x139.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, then the infected equilibrium <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x139.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x140.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is globally asymptotically stable.</p><p>Proof. Firstly, we define a function, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x141.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>,<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x141.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x142.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Take the Lyapunov functional as follows.</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula369"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x143.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Next calculating the derivative of V along with the solution of model (4), we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula370"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x144.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Since<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x145.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula371"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x146.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Next,we consider the following variables substitutions by letting,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula372"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x147.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Then,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula373"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x148.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Further let</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula374"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x149.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Then, through a straight computation, we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula375"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x150.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Since the arithmetic mean is greater than or equal to the geometric mean and function g is a positive function, we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.59962-formula376"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x151.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Thus, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x152.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>in<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x152.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x153.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. The equality <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x152.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x153.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x154.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> holds if and only if<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x152.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x153.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x154.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x155.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. That is,<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x152.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x153.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x154.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x155.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x156.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. The maximal invariant set of model (4) on the set <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x152.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x153.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x154.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x155.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x156.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x157.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is the singleton<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x152.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x153.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x154.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x155.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x156.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x157.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x158.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Thus, the endemic equilibrium <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x152.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x153.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x154.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x155.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x156.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x157.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x158.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x159.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is globally asymptotically stable if <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x152.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x153.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x154.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x155.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x156.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x157.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x158.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x159.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x160.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> by LaSalle Invariance Principle [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.59962-ref14">14</xref>] .</p></sec><sec id="s5"><title>5. Conclusion</title><p>In this paper, we have considered an HIV/AIDS model with treatment, vertical transmission and time delay. Under the assumption that asymptomatic infectives (J) have the symptoms of AIDS, AIDS patients (A) are isolated; hence their probability of producing children is small; and it is neglected. From the local stability of disease free equilibrium, we calculated the basic reproduction number<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x161.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Further we get the results that when <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x161.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x162.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotic stable, and when <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x161.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x162.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/11-7402710x163.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotic stable.</p></sec><sec id="s6"><title>Acknowledgements</title><p>This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants nos. 11261056, 11261058 and 11271312).</p></sec><sec id="s7"><title>Cite this paper</title><p>ZohragulOsman,XamxinurAbdurahman, (2015) Stability Analysis of a Delayed HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Vertical Transmission. Applied Mathematics,06,1781-1789. doi: 10.4236/am.2015.610158</p></sec><sec id="s8"><title>NOTES</title></sec></body><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="scirp.59962-ref1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Cai, L.M. and Li, X.Z. (2009) Stability Analysis of an HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with Treatment. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 229, 313-323. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2008.10.067</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref2"><label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Cai, L.M. and Guo, S.L. (2014) Analysis of an Extended HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with Treatment. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 236, 621-627. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2014.02.078</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref3"><label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Huo, H.-F. and Feng, L.-X. (2013) Global Stability for an HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with Different Latent Stages and Treatment. Applied Mathematical Modeling, 37, 1480-1489. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2012.04.013</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref4"><label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Elaiw, A.M. (2010) Global Properties of a Class of HIV Models. Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, 11, 2253-2263. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.nonrwa.2009.07.001</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref5"><label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Xiao, D.M. and Ruan, S.G. (2007) Global Analysis of an Epidemic Model with Non-Monotone Incidence Rate. Mathematical Biosciences, 208, 419-429. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2006.09.025</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref6"><label>6</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Naresh, R., Tripathi, A. and Omar, S. (2006) Modeling the Spread of AIDS Epidemic with Vertical Transmission. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 178, 262-272. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2005.11.041</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref7"><label>7</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">d’Onofrio, A. (2005) On Pulse Vaccination Strategy in the SIR Epidemic Model with Vertical Transmission. Applied Mathematics Letters, 18, 729-732. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aml.2004.05.012</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref8"><label>8</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Li, M.Y. and Smith, H.L. (2001) Global Dynamics of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Vertical Transmission. SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics, 62, 58-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/S0036139999359860</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref9"><label>9</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Naresh, R. and Sharma, D. (2011) An HIV/AIDS Model with Vertical Transmission and Time Delay. World Journal of Modeling and Simulation, 7, 230-240.</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref10"><label>10</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Liu, J.L. and Zhang, T.L. (2012) Global Stability for Delay SIR Epidemic Model with Vertical Transmission. Open Journal of Applied Sciences, 2, 1-4. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojapps.2012.24b001</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref11"><label>11</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Gumel, A.B., McCluskey, C.C. and van den Driessche, P. (2006) Mathematical Study of a Staged-Progression HIV Model with Imperfect Vaccine. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 68, 2105-2128. 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-006-9095-7</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref12"><label>12</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Cai, L.M., Fang, B. and Li, X.Z. (2014) A Note of a Staged Progression HIV Model with Imperfect Vaccine. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 234, 412-416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2014.01.179</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref13"><label>13</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">McCluskey, C.C. and vanden Driessche, P. (2004) Global Analysis of Two Tuberculosis Models. Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations, 16, 139-166. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:JODY.0000041283.66784.3e</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.59962-ref14"><label>14</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">LaSalle, J.P. (1976) The Stability of Dynamical Systems. In: Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics. SIAM, Philadelphia.</mixed-citation></ref></ref-list></back></article>