The contemporary discourse on climate change CC has often been framed from a complex and rather predictive scientific perspective, based mostly on scenario modelling. Studies indicate that rather than bring greater clarity to the subject, such approach often becomes a vehicle of conflict by promoting the beliefs of different sides to the debate as scientific facts [1] . In addition to this, inherent difficulties associated with many environmental problems also sometimes help to undermine the effectiveness of scientific communication because of the mismatch between “usual modes of understanding” and what is needed to grasp the essence of the problem [2] . Both proponents as well as opponents of climate change have been accused of sometimes deliberately misleading the public [3] . Instead of providing the public with objective basis for making rational decisions on issues, science communication have sometimes been found to be either ineffective or even worsen the situation entirely. In contrast to this trend, this investigation attempts an analysis of the CC phenomenon from a public perception perspective.

There is increasing concern about the variability and impacts of CC on forestry and agricultural production worldwide. These changes have been mostly attributed to anthropogenic influences on the earth’s environment [4] . In particular, IPCC Assessment Report 4 [5] supports the view that climate change will have significant impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems and genetic diversity within species as well as on ecological interactions. DEFRA [6] went further to buttress this point, arguing that while on the one hand CC poses added risks to agriculture due to changes in growing seasons, on the other hand it could present positive outcomes to plants that might adapt to anticipated climatic changes. Furthermore, IPCC Working Group II (Adaptation and Vulnerability) estimates that 20% - 30% of plants and animals species evaluated so far in climate change studies were at risk of extinction following temperature spikes projected to occur towards the end of this century. As a result, it has been predicted that some species may migrate northwards or pole wards to where conditions will be more favourable for their existence. Current research indicates that species failing to adapt may be faced with possible extinction or fragmentation. In certain cases, phenological changes are already evident. It therefore follows that, agriculture and forestry are vital sectors providing services, food and other environmental benefits that could be most affected by climate change. This study analyses the impact of CC on a typical UK rural ecosystem with a view to providing empirical evidence that could underpin future CC policies and programmes.

To adequately understand and mitigate CC impacts, evidence based research is required particularly in the agricultural sector. Perception-Based Analysis (PBA) has been used as an alternative to more traditional response-based segmentation [7] [8] . Perception based studies on CC impacts on the forest and agricultural sector are currently under reported; it is therefore imperative for a research like this to use as a case study, a typical rural environment such as Shropshire in middle England. Shropshire borders Wales to the west, Cheshire to the north, Staffordshire to the east, Worcestershire to the south east and Herefordshire to the south. Shropshire is divided into North and South with the Shropshire hills being a major land feature at the south western end (see Figure 1). It is estimated that 86% (approximately 128,147 ha) of Shropshire land use is predominantly for agriculture and permanent grasslands [9] . According to DEFRA Statistics [9] , in 2008 there were 7026 farm holdings in Shropshire covering 274,549 ha. A total of 7624 individuals, equivalent to 70.2% are engaged in some form of agricultural activities either in full or part time capacity. Shropshire gov. [10] elaborates further

that Shropshire’s economy depends largely on agriculture, rural industries and tourism. According to Shropshire RCC [11] , 43% of Shropshire residents live in rural areas; therefore a disruption in agriculture and forest ecosystems would amount to a significant disruption to their livelihood and economy.

An ecosystem is a dynamic and complex system of plant, animal, and microorganism communities and the non-living environment interacting with each other as a functional unit [12] - [14] . Climate exerts a dominant control over the natural distribution of species within ecosystems. There is increasing evidence from literature that the distribution, composition, structure and function of ecosystems do respond to changes in temperature, precipitation and increased CO₂ levels in the environment [15] [16] . Evidence from fossil records [17] [18] as well as from more recently observed trends [19] [20] also shows that changing climate has a profound influence on species’ range, expansion and contraction. Although there is relatively limited evidence of current extinctions caused by climate change, studies suggest that CC could surpass habitat destruction as the greatest global threat to biodiversity over the next few decades [21] in [15] . According to [22] , phenology which provides environmental records of leafing, flowering of plants, insect activity (beetles and butterflies) and bird migration are also affected by climate change and global warming [15] .

Recent estimates project that agricultural activities are contributing between 12% - 14% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, not including emissions arising from land clearing [23] . The precise magnitude of CO₂ emissions from land-use change is still very unclear [5] . In essence, agriculture is highly sensitive to climate change and climatic variations. As a result, there are not only differences among regions, but also differences caused by interannual variability of production and disruption of ecosystem services within a single region [24] . Climate change impacts on agricultural production are also associated with impacts on human well-being and welfare. Changes in agricultural systems, driven by socioeconomic changes, greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural policies and other factors, are also affecting natural and managed ecosystems [25] . From the fore going, CC impacts on ecosystems are far reaching, and could be divided into two main groups: biophysical and socio-economic. This research focuses on the biophysical impacts and their consequential effects such as droughts and floods, which could cause low crop yields and increased incidence of pests and diseases.

Associated with climate change are several factors that affect forest ecosystems, which can act independently or in combination [26] . The changes in timing of seasonal events and migration patterns can result in mismatches between species such as predator prey host relationships hence an imbalance in the ecosystem. A study of 9650 interspecific systems, including pollinators and parasites, suggested that around 6300 species could disappear following the extinction of their associated species [15] [27] . In addition, for many species, the primary impact of climate change may be mediated through effects on synchrony with species’ food and habitat requirements. Climate change is also said to have led to phenological shifts in flowering plants and insect pollinators, causing mismatches between plant and pollinator populations that lead to the extinctions of both the plant and the pollinator with expected consequences on the structure of plant?pollinator networks [15] [27] .

Bellard et al., [15] predicted alarming scenarios of species extinction due to climate change impact in the near future. Indications are that in Europe, with regards to plant diversity, up to 84% plant species could become extinct while as much as 75% of fish depending on river conditions could be wiped out. The study elaborates further that 52 per cent of amphibians could become extinct and 35% of birds could be susceptible to climate change effects and become extinct. These figures are significant and are a cause for concern. Drier conditions and drought could lead to reduced agricultural and timber yields and could also affect woodland conditions [4] . Briner et al. [28] and Lindner et al. [26] argue that the time spent under drought conditions in most crop growing regions of the world will have drastic consequences on yields and tree growth. While Ray et al., [29] , Lindner et al., [26] , Briner et al., [28] , and the IPCC [4] are unanimous in agreement that drier and warmer summers could heighten the risk of abiotic factors such as wild fires. IPCC [30] goes further to predict increased forest fires as a result of prevailing climatic conditions. This goes to support the position that drought which is exacerbated by climate change could have significant negative impact on forestry and agricultural ecosystem. Fantahun [12] suggests that after wildfires the soil is left without plant cover leaving it susceptible to soil erosion and leaching, rendering it unproductive for agricultural purposes and creating desert like conditions.

[29] [31] and [32] predict that other species may dominate as some species become dormant or extinct. Increased drought stress could equally induce a shift in forest species composition. [31] and [29] elaborated further on what they call “forest disturbances” such as fires, drought, alien species, insects, pathogen outbreaks and wind storms, agreeing that these will have impacts on species composition and distribution thereby affecting habitat quality and quantity and even cause disruption to ecosystems services [15] . The Fourth Assessment Report, IPCC [5] , predicts that some of the species and insects like butterflies for example will begin to appear in hitherto unusual habitats while others will move northwards to where conditions are favourable for their survival. This could have significant effect on those ecosystems as well. The consequence of this is that more drought resistant species are predicted to become dominant component of the forest in the future. Ray et al. [29] argue that these new woodlands must be resilient to the impact of climate change. IPCC [30] further argues that there will be increased colonization of alien species in Europe, possibly this could be due to new opportunities in the agricultural sector and woodland environment. Ray et al. [29] suggest further that in the future, woodlands could be ideal for carbon sequestration, apart from providing wood fiber for timber products.

Climatic change is also predicted to impact on biotic factors such as frequency and consequences of pests and disease outbreaks [26] [31] . Ray et al. [29] emphasized on the influence of warmer weather and warmer winter, especially that they could cause a diversity of pests and pathogens. IPCC [5] supports this analogy and predicts that pests especially beetles outbreak will have fatal effects on pine trees population; Dale et al. [31] also agreed with this position while reporting that in their research they found evidence that pine bark beetle disease destroys forests. It has been noted that weeds and pests thrive under warmer and increased temperatures, wetter climates and enhanced CO₂ levels. Under this scenario, the wider range of weeds and pests are likely to move northwards and different weeds will occupy their space. This could cause increase in pollution as more pesticides and fungicides will be required to control the weeds and pests which will in turn harm water courses.

Bellard et al. [15] stressed the positive aspects of climate change, particularly with regard to increased temperatures and increased CO₂, pointing out that they could result in an accelerated biomass production. Increased precipitation could also benefit some plants and communities depending on how they will respond to extreme rainfall [15] . In a separate study Bellamy and Hulme [33] discussed people’s perceptions and touched on the emotional issues as well as cultural perceptions pertaining to climate change. Bellamy and Hulme [33] used terms such as “catastrophic” and “beyond the tipping point”, to describe events and scenarios around climate change. Such terms evoke fear in people regarding climate change. Without doubt, there will be noticeable changes both in woodland as well as in forest ecosystems [31] , though the extent of such changes may vary from place to place. Invariably, woodland recreation may be boosted as people seek shelter from the increased temperatures.

This research utilizes a multi-pronged PBA methodological approach incorporating, desk top study, participant observation, key informant interview and questionnaire survey. At the desktop study stage, mostly secondary data were collected; in the course of reviewing of current literature on the subject. Thereafter the study area was divided into four zones, Shrewsbury, Telford, Shifnal and Bridgnorth. Following the desktop survey, the authors undertook a number of visits to the site to observe the case study area and interview selected key informants from Shropshire Council, National Farmers Union, and Shrewsbury Botanical Gardens. Finally, a survey questionnaire consisting of 13 questions was designed. The survey focused on ascertaining respondents’ perception on the relative impact of climate change on forest and agricultural ecosystems in the case study area. To reduce the time and cost of questionnaire administration, an online format of the questionnaire was adapted using the Survey Monkey sampling software. The online questionnaires were thereafter emailed to 250 individuals who live and work in Bridgnorth, Telford, Shrewsbury and Shifnal during the summer of 2014, using the stratified random sampling approach. Figure 2 is an indicative map with questionnaire sampling and interview areas inset. A total of 100 responses were returned equivalent to about 40% response rate. This rate is well above the norm (20% - 30%) for postal questionnaires [34] - [36] . Most of the data collected were ordinal in nature, although there were some nominal data as well. Data analysis was carried out using the Statistical Programme for Social Sciences (SPSS) for Windows 17.0.

Define Statistical analysis utilized chi square test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) to analyse some of the numerical data. A null hypothesis was propounded that “climate change is responsible for the changes in forest and agricultural ecosystem in the case study area”. Questions 3, 5, 6, 7 and 11 from the questionnaire were

subjected to chi square test, represented by the formula:

where:

o = Observed Frequency in each category,

e = Expected Frequency in the corresponding category,

d_o = degree of freedom (n − 1),

n = 100,

X² = Chi Square.

In addition, we used one-way comparison analyses of variance (Anova) in predicting any variations in CC indicators such as rainfall and temperature over a defined period.

Table 1 is an overview of respondents’ occupation groups. Table 2 is an outline of respondents’ perception on the causes and impacts of CC. One way analyses of variance (Anova) was used in comparing climate change

C = Carers, M = Managers, T = Technical, O = Others.

and human factors. The significance level α = 5%, calculated ρ = 0.36 > 0.05. Table 3 represents results for test of homogeneitythat the population variances are equal. Based on Anova results, the null hypothesis H_o that “climate change is responsible for changes in forest and agricultural ecosystem in the case study area” is accepted.

Primary data were collected using the stratified random sampling technique across four districts of Shropshire and Telford councils: Bridgnorth, Telford, Shrewsbury and Shifnal. Bellamy and Hulme [33] have previously studied public perceptions on CC and noted that the subject was often associated with a culture of fear, best reflected by some of the words used to describe scenarios and events surrounding climate change, such as “catastrophic” and “point of no return”. This investigation was designed to avoid such elements of fear and subjectivity in analyzing people’s perception of climate change. Like Bellamy and Hulme [33] , the research employed both qualitative and quantitative approaches but differed slightly from earlier PBA studies because it did not touch on emotions and the myth or the abruptness of climate change.

Evidence indicates that climate change could cause significant changes in ecosystem composition if increases in global average temperature continue unabated. As much as 30 percent of species in forest and agricultural ecosystems could be at risk of extinction. Apart from CC other factors such as land development practices, government policies as well as unsustainable agricultural practices are also contributory in causing fragmentation and extinction of species. Results from this study indicate that climate change will bring increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events to Shropshire region. As a result, increased resilience and adaptation to these climatic threats is urgently required at local (Shropshire), regional and national levels. As in other UK counties, Shropshire has recently taken a proactive step by developing a Climate Change Strategy but now faces additional challenges associated with implementation.

ChukwunonyeEzeah,EmmahSimbabure, (2015) Perception-Based Analysis (PBA) of Climate Change Impacts on the Forest and Agricultural Ecosystem of Shropshire, United Kingdom. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,03,111-121. doi: 10.4236/gep.2015.35013