<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!DOCTYPE article  PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "http://dtd.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en" article-type="research article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">OJMSi</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2327-4018</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Scientific Research Publishing</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4236/ojmsi.2015.33011</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">OJMSi-57710</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Physics&amp;Mathematics</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>
 
 
  Stability Analysis of an SIR Epidemic Model with Non-Linear Incidence Rate and Treatment
 
</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>lukayode</surname><given-names>Adebimpe</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kehinde</surname><given-names>Adekunle Bashiru</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Taiwo</surname><given-names>Adetola Ojurongbe</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Department of Industrial Mathematics, Landmark University, Omuaran, Nigeria</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Mathematical and Physical Science, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail:<email>olukayode1978@gmail.com(LA)</email>;</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>05</day><month>06</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>03</volume><issue>03</issue><fpage>104</fpage><lpage>110</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>7</day>	<month>May</month>	<year>2015</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>accepted</day>	<month>29</month>	<year>June</year>	</date><date date-type="accepted"><day>2</day>	<month>July</month>	<year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>&#169; Copyright  2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. </copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><license><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>
 
 
  We consider a SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and treatment. We show that if the basic reproduction number, R0 is less than unity and the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Moreover, we show that if R0 &gt; 1, the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. In the end, we give some numerical results to compare our model with existing model and to show the effect of the treatment term on the model.
 
</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>SIR Epidemic Model</kwd><kwd> Basic Reproduction Number</kwd><kwd> Local Stability</kwd><kwd> Treatment</kwd><kwd> Saturated  Incidence Rate</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><body><sec id="s1"><title>1. Introduction</title><p>While mathematical modeling of infectious diseases could be traced back to 1760 when Bernoulli used mathematical models for small pox [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref1">1</xref>] , the research in infectious diseases, using deterministic mathematical models actually began in 20<sup>th</sup> century.</p><p>Bilinear and standard incidence rates have been frequently used in classical epidemic models [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref2">2</xref>] . Several different incidence rates have been proposed by researchers. After a study of the cholera epidemic spread in Bari in 1973, Capasso and Serio [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref3">3</xref>] introduced a saturated incidence rate g(I)S into epidemic models. Ruan and Wang</p><p>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref4">4</xref>] studied an epidemic model with specific nonlinear incidence rate of the form <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x6.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> where l and h were</p><p>positive constants and obtained lots of interesting dynamical behaviour of the model such as a limit cycle, two limit cycles and homoclimic loop etc. In 2000, van den Driessche and Watmough [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref5">5</xref>] studied an SIS epidemic</p><p>model with the incidence rate of the form <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x7.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> where<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x8.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Xiao and Ruan [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref6">6</xref>] considered a special nonlinear incident rate of the form <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x9.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> where g(I) is non-monotone.</p><p>Jasmine and Amirtharaj [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref7">7</xref>] on account of the effect of limited treatment resources on the control of epidemic disease incorporated a modified SIR epidemic model with generalized incidence rate. They discussed the stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium with a nonlinear incidence rate. Chauhan et al. [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref8">8</xref>] discussed the stability analysis pf SIR epidemic model with and without vaccination. They discussed the local and global stability of the model through the basis reproduction number</p><p>In a recent paper, Kaddar [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref9">9</xref>] considered a delayed SIR epidemic model with a saturated incidence rate of the form <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x10.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> and Pathak et al. [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57710-ref10">10</xref>] also considered the transmission rate <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x11.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> which dis-</p><p>played a saturation effect accounting for the fact that the number of contacts in individual reaches some maximal value done to spatial or social distribution of the population.</p><p>In this paper, we extend the work of Pathak et al., by considering a transmission rate <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x12.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> where<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x13.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. We also look at the effect of the transmission rate on the SIR epidemic model and we include the treatment term <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x14.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> where<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x15.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p></sec><sec id="s2"><title>2. The Basic Mathematical Model</title><p>We modify the model of Pathak et al., by extending the transmission rate to nonlinear orders and also include the treatment term.</p><p>Pathak et al. Model</p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1235"><label>(1)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x16.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Modified Model</p><p>The modified model is as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1236"><label>(2)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x17.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where the transmission rate <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x18.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> and<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x19.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>where <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x20.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> represent the number of susceptible, infective and recovered individuals at time t, respectively, b is the recruitment rate of the population, d is the natural death rate of the population, k is the proportionality constant, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>is the natural recovery rate of the infective individuals, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>is the rate at which recovered individuals lose immunity and return to the susceptible class, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x21.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x22.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x23.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>are the parameters which measure the effects of sociological, psychological or other mechanisms and p and q are positive constants which are greater than unity.</p></sec><sec id="s3"><title>3. Steady State and Local Stability of the Critical Points</title><p>In this section, we discuss the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium of system (2).</p><p>The system (2) has a disease free of<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x24.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>. Further, system (2) admits a unique endemic equilibrium <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x24.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x25.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula></p><p>Proposition 1: If R<sub>0</sub> &lt; 1, then the disease free equilibrium E<sub>0</sub> is locally asymptotically stable.</p><p>Proof:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1237"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x26.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1238"><label>(3)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x27.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Obviously, (3) has three roots<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x28.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>,<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x28.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x29.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>.</p><p>Let <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x30.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula></p><p>Hence, if R<sub>0</sub> &lt; 1, then the disease free equilibrium point E<sub>0</sub> is locally asymptotically stable.</p><p>Proposition 2: <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>as <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x32.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> for <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x31.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x32.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x33.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula></p><p>Proof:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1239"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x34.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1240"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x35.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>i.e. <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x36.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula></p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1241"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x37.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Hence, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x38.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x38.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x39.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>as <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x38.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x39.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x40.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula></p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1242"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x41.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula></sec><sec id="s4"><title>4. Stability Analysis of the Endemic Equilibrium</title><p>Let the endemic equilibrium <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x42.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> where each component corresponds an earlier value.</p><p>Let</p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1243"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x43.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Then,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1244"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x44.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Then</p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1245"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x45.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x46.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula></p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1246"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x47.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>by solving, the characteristic equation <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x48.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> is</p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1247"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x49.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.57710-formula1248"><graphic  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x50.png"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>A straight forward calculation yields <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x51.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> Then, it follows from Routh-Hurwitz criteria that all characteristics roots have negative real parts. Thus, the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable.</p></sec><sec id="s5"><title>5. Numerical Simulations</title><p>To see the dynamical behavior of system (2), we solve the system by Runge-Kutta Felhberg 45(RKF 45) method using the parameters;<inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x52.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x52.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x53.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x52.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x53.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x54.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>, q = 2, b = 3.1, d = 2.29, k = 9, <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x52.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x53.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x54.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x55.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula>and <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x52.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x53.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x54.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x55.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula><inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x56.png" xlink:type="simple"/></inline-formula> with different values for the treatment term</p><p>a) In <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref>, r = 0.1.</p><p>b) In <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Figure 2</xref>, r = 0.4.</p><p>c) In <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">Figure 3</xref>, r = 0.7.</p><fig id="fig1"  position="float"><label><xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref></label><caption><title> Graph of S(t), I(t) and R(t) when g = 1.5, m = 0.19, r = 2, q = 2, b = 3.1, d = 2.29, k = 9, a = 3.1 and b = 4.7</title></caption><graphic mimetype="image"   position="float"  xlink:type="simple"  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x57.png"/></fig><fig id="fig2"  position="float"><label><xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Figure 2</xref></label><caption><title> Graph of S(t), I(t) and R(t) when g = 1.5, m = 0.19, r = 2, q = 2, b = 3.1, d = 2.29, k = 9, a = 3.1 and b = 4.7</title></caption><graphic mimetype="image"   position="float"  xlink:type="simple"  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x58.png"/></fig><fig id="fig3"  position="float"><label><xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">Figure 3</xref></label><caption><title> Graph of S(t), I(t) and R(t) when g = 1.5, m = 0.19, r = 2, q = 2, b = 3.1, d = 2.29, k = 9, a = 3.1 and b = 4.7</title></caption><graphic mimetype="image"   position="float"  xlink:type="simple"  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-2860062x59.png"/></fig></sec><sec id="s6"><title>6. Conclusion</title><p>In this paper, we have carried out the stability of the equilibrium states using some of the tested parameters from literature reviewed in this paper. The simulation is carried out using numerical software called “maple”. The effect of the treatment term in the model has been investigated and it shows that treatment has a positive effect on the endemic nature of the disease. The more the treatment is applied, the faster the disease fades out.</p></sec><sec id="s7"><title>NOTES</title></sec></body><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="scirp.57710-ref1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Bernouilli, D. (1760) Essai d’une nouvelle analyse de la mortalite causse par la petite verole et des avantages de l’innoculation pour al prevenir. In Memoires de Mathematiques et de Physique. Academic Royale Des Science, Paris, 1-45.</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.57710-ref2"><label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Hethcote, H.W. (2000) The Mathematics of Infectious Disease. SIAM Review, 42, 599-653.  
http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/S0036144500371907</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.57710-ref3"><label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Capasso, V. and Serio, G. (1978) A Generalization of the Kermack-Mckendrick Deterministic Epidemic Model. Mathematical Biosciences, 42, 41-61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(78)90006-8</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.57710-ref4"><label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Ruan, S. and Wang, W. (2003) Dynamical Behavior of an Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Incidence Rate. Journal of Differential Equations, 188, 135-163. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-0396(02)00089-X</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.57710-ref5"><label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">van den Driessche, P. and Watmough, J. (2000) A Simple SIS Epidemic Model with a Backward Bifurcation. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 40, 525-540. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s002850000032</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.57710-ref6"><label>6</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Xiao, D.M. and Ruan, S.G. (2005) Global Analysis of an Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Incidence Rate. Preprint.</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.57710-ref7"><label>7</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Jasmine, D.E.C. and Amirtharaj, H. (2014) A Modified SIR Epidemic Model with Immigration and Generalized Saturated Incidence Rate Function. International Journal of Science and Research, 3, 440-443.</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.57710-ref8"><label>8</label><mixed-citation publication-type="journal" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chauchan</surname><given-names> S.</given-names></name>,<name name-style="western"><surname> Misra O.P. and Dhar</surname><given-names> J. </given-names></name>,<etal>et al</etal>. (<year>2014</year>)<article-title>Stability Analysis of SIR Model with Vaccination</article-title><source> American Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics</source><volume> 4</volume>,<fpage> 17</fpage>-<lpage>23</lpage>.<pub-id pub-id-type="doi"></pub-id></mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.57710-ref9"><label>9</label><mixed-citation publication-type="journal" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kaddar</surname><given-names> A. </given-names></name>,<etal>et al</etal>. (<year>2010</year>)<article-title>Stability Analysis in a Delayed SIR Epidemic Model with a Saturated Incidence Rate</article-title><source> Nonlinear Analysis: Modelling and Control</source><volume> 15</volume>,<fpage> 299</fpage>-<lpage>306</lpage>.<pub-id pub-id-type="doi"></pub-id></mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.57710-ref10"><label>10</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Pathak, S., Maiti, A. and Samanta, G.P. (2010) Rich Dynamics of an SIR Epidemic Model. Nonlinear Analysis: Modelling and Control, 15, 71-81.</mixed-citation></ref></ref-list></back></article>