<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!DOCTYPE article  PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "http://dtd.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en" article-type="research article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ACS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Atmospheric and Climate Sciences</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2160-0414</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Scientific Research Publishing</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4236/acs.2015.53016</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">ACS-57247</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Earth&amp;Environmental Sciences</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>
 
 
  Meteorological Indices Approach for Prediction of Thunderstorm Probability at Two Coastal Sites in Egypt
 
</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>.</surname><given-names>S. Ahmed</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>M.</surname><given-names>A. Sadek</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority, Naser City, Egypt</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail:<email>olfatsaad2005@yahoo.com(.SA)</email>;</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>15</day><month>05</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>05</volume><issue>03</issue><fpage>219</fpage><lpage>227</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>5</day>	<month>May</month>	<year>2015</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>accepted</day>	<month>15</month>	<year>June</year>	</date><date date-type="accepted"><day>18</day>	<month>June</month>	<year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>&#169; Copyright  2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. </copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><license><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>
 
 
  Siting of hazardous facilities such as Nuclear power plants requires the investigation of the meteorological and climatologically of the site region to derive extreme values of the meteorological variables to be considered in the design for safety purposes. Not only normally occurring meteorological conditions but also extremely rare events are considered. The present work is devoted to predict the likelihood of the Thunderstorm which is one of the rare events of concern for plant safety. Four atmospheric stability indices such as K-indices, the Showalter-indices, total totals-indices and the SWEAT-indices have been used for that. These function of meteorological parameters such as temperature, wind speed, wind direction and dew point at levels of pressure at 500, 700 and 850 hpa to predict the thunderstorm probability. Two Egyptian coastal sities have been chosen for the investigation, one on the Mediterranean Sea and the other on Red Sea; El Sallum and Sharm El Sheikh. The results show that the probability of thunderstorm occurred within the months January and February during 1989-2003, where the maximum value of SI, K, TT and SWEAT indices at January &amp; February months equals 29.31 &amp; 28.20, 18.4 &amp; 20.3 &amp; 48.1 &amp; 49 and 238.01 &amp; 350.6 for Sallum city respectively, and equals 26.05 &amp; 24.53, 24.6 &amp; 23.9, 50.6 &amp; 51.5 and 253.4 &amp; 265.4 for Sharm El Sheikh city respectively, and this agrees with the pattern reviewed based on world geographic and climatic condition.
 
</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Showalter Indices</kwd><kwd> TT Indices</kwd><kwd> K-Indices</kwd><kwd> SWEAT Indices</kwd><kwd> Radiosond</kwd><kwd> Temperature and Dew Point</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><body><sec id="s1"><title>1. Introduction</title><p>Siting of hazardous facilities such as Nuclear Power Plants requires the investigation of the meteorological and climatological characteristics of the site region to derive extreme values of the meteorological variables to be considered in the design for safety purposes. Meteorological aspects of external hazards to be considered include extreme values of meteorological parameters as well as rarely occurring hazardous meteorological phenomena [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref1">1</xref>] [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref2">2</xref>] . The important meteorological characteristics of concern include wind, precipitation, snow, temperature, storm surges [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref3">3</xref>] [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref4">4</xref>] and rare meteorological phenomena such as lightning, tornadoes, tropical cyclones.</p><p>Lightning is a visible electrical discharge most commonly produced in thunderstorms. Lightning transients exhibit extremely high voltages, currents and current rise rates. Lightning is a significant cause of interruptions or damage in almost every electrical or electronic system that is exposed to thunderstorms, [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref5">5</xref>] . Damage is usually categorized as either direct or induced (indirect). The extreme electric field created under certain circumstances produces point discharges and can cause breakdown (a conductive path) in all but the most robust of insulators. Once a path has been established for the return stroke, currents of tens to hundreds of kiloamperes flow. It should be noted that lightning is an unpredictable transient phenomenon with characteristics that vary widely from flash to flash and whose measurement is difficult. The hazard assessment for lightning should result in an estimated annual frequency of exceedance for lightning strike for the planned nuclear power plant.</p><p>The present study devoted to predict the probability occurring thunderstorms across the North and East coasts of Egypt. Four atmospheric stability indexes are measured for that. These indexes are: K-indics, the Showalter, total totals and the SWEAT [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref6">6</xref>] . These indexes combine important meteorological parameters of concern to thunderstorms production, to determine its relative probability. Two Egyptian coastal cities have been chosen for the investigation, one on the Northern Mediteranean Sea and the other on Red Sea; El Sallum and Sharm El Sheikh, respectively.</p></sec><sec id="s2"><title>2. Location and climate of the Study Area</title><p>The investigated area comprises two coastal cities in Egypt; Sham El Sheikh and El Sallum. Sharm El Sheikh city is situated on the coastal strip along the Red Sea, which includes the smaller coastal towns of Dahab and Nuweiba as well as the mountainous interior, Saint Catherine’s Monastery and Mount Sinai. Nowadays it is a major touristic hotspot and resort city in Egypt [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref7">7</xref>] . And Sallum city is on the other hand situated on the Egyptian Mediterranean northwest Coast, along the border with Libya [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref8">8</xref>] , as shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref>.</p><p><xref ref-type="table" rid="table1">Table 1</xref> and <xref ref-type="table" rid="table2">Table 2</xref> [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref9">9</xref>] [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref10">10</xref>] , show indicate mean values of the major meteoric conditions of several stations including that are concerned in the studied two cities; Sham El Sheikh and El Sallum.</p></sec><sec id="s3"><title>3. Methodology</title><p>The atmospheric stability and the thunderstorm vulnerability have been examined in two coastal cities in Egypt; El Sallum at the northwest coast and Shrm El Sheikh at the Red Sea Four meteorological indexes; Showalter Index (SI)) [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref11">11</xref>] , Total Totals Index (TT), K-index, and Severe Weather SWEAT, have been calculated and functioned for that purpose. Radio soundings [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.57247-ref12">12</xref>] are used to obtain vertical profiles of thermodynamic (pressure,</p><fig id="fig1"  position="float"><label><xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref></label><caption><title> Map of the study area</title></caption><graphic mimetype="image"   position="float"  xlink:type="simple"  xlink:href="http://html.scirp.org/file/5-4700389x5.png"/></fig><table-wrap id="table1" ><label><xref ref-type="table" rid="table1">Table 1</xref></label><caption><title> Mean monthly and annual wind speed (m/s) and its direction (at a height 10 m)</title></caption><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="scirp.57247-ref1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">IAEA (2011) Safety Aspects in Siting for Nuclear Installations, Draft Safety Guide, DS433. 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