<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!DOCTYPE article  PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "http://dtd.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en" article-type="research article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">IJG</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>International Journal of Geosciences</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2156-8359</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Scientific Research Publishing</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4236/ijg.2013.410138</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">IJG-41372</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Earth&amp;Environmental Sciences</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>
 
 
  Applicability of Phase Synchronization Clustering to Detect the Process of Climate Events
 
</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>honghua</surname><given-names>Qian</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zengping</surname><given-names>Zhang</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Guolin</surname><given-names>Feng</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><addr-line>College of Physical Science &amp;amp; Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail:<email>qianzh@yzu.edu.cn(HQ)</email>;</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>25</day><month>12</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>04</volume><issue>10</issue><fpage>1411</fpage><lpage>1415</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>September</day>	<month>9,</month>	<year>2013</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>October</day>	<month>5,</month>	<year>2013</year>	</date><date date-type="accepted"><day>November</day>	<month>4,</month>	<year>2013</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>&#169; Copyright  2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. </copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><license><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>
 
 
   Phase synchronization clustering method is used to detect the process of extreme weather events rather than extreme values events mathematically. The applicability is discussed from the aspects of noise intensity and sequence length and the observed data are applied practically. The detection process shows that clustering measure difference can detect the temporal process objectively to a certain degree and it has certain application to detect the temporal process of extreme weather events. 
 
</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Climate Events; Process; Phase Synchronization</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><body><sec id="s1"><title>1. Introduction</title><p>With global warming, extreme weather events have become increasingly common. The third and fourth assessment reports by the IPCC both gave a definite definition about extreme weather events: for a particular place at a particular time, extreme weather events are small probability ones, whose occurring probability is about 10% or even more lower [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.41372-ref1">1</xref>]. Then based on probability distribution curve of meteorological elements, extreme weather events are defined and researched [2-9], which are strictly extreme values events mathematically. In fact, what damage every extreme weather event amount could cause to society and economy depends on its strength, affected area and duration. So it is very significant to focus on the process, i.e., the rise, the development and the fall of extreme weather events. Recently, some researchers have concerned about this issue [10,11], while these methods are not objective enough and need some artificial judgment.</p><p>A. Hutt and co-workers proposed a method to detect mutual phase synchronization [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.41372-ref12">12</xref>], which provided a kind of thought to detect the process of weather events. The data recorded in certain open systems are considered to be split into temporal sequences of fast transients on the one hand and time windows of narrow-band time scales on the other. The part of phase synchronization is considered to be a state or a cluster about time windows, presenting temporal partition, i.e., the temporal process. Here, the applicability about phase synchronization to detect temporal process of weather events is studied in detail.</p></sec><sec id="s2"><title>2. Method of Detecting the Process</title><sec id="s2_1"><title>2.1. Definition of Phase</title><p>In physics, phase reflects the state of a signal. Phase synchronization analysis is to separate the information about amplitude and phase from signal and only phase information and phase relativity are considered. The phase <img src="12-2800604\cd887c9d-deab-4e81-8696-8b4421ffe7b6.jpg" /> of a real signal s(t) can be defined via its corresponding analytical signal<img src="12-2800604\fffc92f3-71c7-4786-bcb6-4382796d40b5.jpg" />.</p><disp-formula id="scirp.41372-formula27627"><label>(1)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="12-2800604\029b0cdf-01c1-4dbe-847b-9b458595bff3.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p><img src="12-2800604\9bbecfa7-6939-425d-9b66-b4dbb47b0cfe.jpg" />is Hilbert transform about<img src="12-2800604\1aa79574-d6cb-46ef-bd21-818e948a1ba8.jpg" />,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.41372-formula27628"><label>(2)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="12-2800604\a33cef9a-b186-4198-ad70-617e0e4c13fb.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="12-2800604\c51fe049-8019-47c5-9289-257409f067b5.jpg" />, the integral in Equation (2) refers to the Cauchy principal value. Then</p><disp-formula id="scirp.41372-formula27629"><label>(3)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="12-2800604\4590f384-e2c9-4542-a0d4-bb39412472b1.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>is the phase of signal.</p></sec><sec id="s2_2"><title>2.2. Phase Clustering and Cluster Quality Measure</title><p>In order to detect temporal process objectively, temporal phase sequences are clustered by K-means cluster algorithm and cluster quality measure is used to give the proper number of clusters [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.41372-ref12">12</xref>]. The following is mainly about the method of detection of phase synchronization approached by A. Hutt and co-workers. Because the phase data represent time series and all the data are well ordered in time. Therefore, clusters can be considered as temporal segments as the K-means algorithm maps data points to their nearest cluster centers. For every number of clusters K, each data point i is associated with a cluster measure<img src="12-2800604\486e52bc-4d32-435a-849b-accce8471b26.jpg" />,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.41372-formula27630"><label>(4)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="12-2800604\4ca389e1-21bb-48bf-948d-7b9cb57f26ea.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="12-2800604\bf00237d-4f6a-4895-9adb-688afcb06af5.jpg" /> is the normalized factor. <img src="12-2800604\51b8008d-f5b0-461f-bc8b-26773bfb7e68.jpg" />and</p><p><img src="12-2800604\55d3f875-7075-458c-b421-542e59980fd2.jpg" />denote the nearest and the second-nearest cluster center of data point i, respectively. <img src="12-2800604\4444cfdb-20b1-4c36-b88b-cbbcff18ac36.jpg" />represents a subset of members of the cluster to which data point i is associated. The dataset is partitioned into distinct subsets <img src="12-2800604\f0ddb016-e724-4ee6-98ba-6582f0d19ae0.jpg" /> reflecting consecutive time segments each. For every number of clusters K the subsets <img src="12-2800604\feba6b68-89a2-4edb-b994-0e1d0b913601.jpg" /> represent consecutive time segments. Usually the optimal number of clusters is unknown resulting in an uncertainty about a proper choice of K. To minimize this uncertainty a statistical approach and average different cluster measures with increasing K are used and yields the so so-called cluster quality measure,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.41372-formula27631"><label>(5)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="12-2800604\d350f6d3-aced-4f26-b5e8-3ee71bddc82c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="12-2800604\41d19b1b-1e53-4e1c-b607-3ae78827fb4d.jpg" />,<img src="12-2800604\f021a7bd-49f5-4639-af69-61d7a8343c7e.jpg" />. R is the maximum number of clusters. An increasing number of clusters K yields an increasing number of subsets <img src="12-2800604\cf1db51e-2d84-4aca-b062-4082b88d22bf.jpg" /> and subsequently, it diminishes the cluster measures<img src="12-2800604\5f6460e5-df8a-4025-a76b-5ecc7822982a.jpg" />. In general, an optimal value of the upper bound R depends on the real number of clusters in the data but R is usually in the range of tens.</p><p>In order to compare cluster qualities across different datasets, a reference system is introduced by randomizing the examined dataset with respect to its temporal order. Because the surrogates <img src="12-2800604\f1a6066d-bdb0-4650-a839-4f4239e8a8e3.jpg" /> do not contain any temporal structure they can be used to normalize the original values <img src="12-2800604\737f8c74-1859-45db-aaa9-24a3920dc726.jpg" /> [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.41372-ref13">13</xref>]. An effective clustering measure <img src="12-2800604\e9d1e856-5514-4f5b-b510-9c64a42b39f7.jpg" /> is defined by means of</p><disp-formula id="scirp.41372-formula27632"><label>(6)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="12-2800604\ad24e7b8-9270-47ca-90fb-81d897998efc.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>The difference</p><disp-formula id="scirp.41372-formula27633"><label>(7)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="12-2800604\3d541615-29d9-408a-9f02-2784c88677a3.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>reveals significant peaks at segment borders between different clusters [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.41372-ref13">13</xref>].</p><p>Based on the above analysis, the detection of phase synchronization can classify the temporal phase sequences. A cluster means a temporal phase window, i.e., a state of some event, so the method provides a kind of way to give the process of event.</p></sec></sec><sec id="s3"><title>3. Numerical Simulation of Phase Synchronization</title><sec id="s3_1"><title>3.1. Detection of One-Dimensional Data</title><p>In order to compare with the result of A. Hutt and coworkers’, the following stochastic dynamical system is also discussed,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.41372-formula27634"><label>(8)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="12-2800604\a63674a4-183e-46c8-880a-ecf601084e59.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="12-2800604\9c7767a9-54c0-49c5-ae78-76b411228ae8.jpg" />, <img src="12-2800604\8557e140-3dfd-4eed-be6f-77cb667f2204.jpg" />,</p><p><img src="12-2800604\0e9b4425-3ea7-4b93-bfa7-9db3b1054376.jpg" />. The values <img src="12-2800604\a0c6d1c1-2de4-4d07-b6a8-1df0715f7cff.jpg" /> represent phases that evolve along the gradient of a potential,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.41372-formula27635"><label>(9)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="12-2800604\6aa7b39e-a49d-4aed-b318-fa785425f0c5.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Considering the complexity of practically observed meteorological elements data, N = 1 is chosen. Equation (8) is simulated solution as a trial being obtained by decreasing β from −1 to 1 for Q = 0.001 in 500 equidistant steps. At each step the system relaxes for 1000 integrations and the final one is stored. The initial phase angles were<img src="12-2800604\a5f1b5bb-78ff-4351-b0f4-26114d866696.jpg" />. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref> shows the detection result. The phase changes show that this system switches at about β = 0.5 and about β = −0.5 which is in accord with potential change of the system [14,15]. <img src="12-2800604\f2ab67cd-3c3d-400a-a3dd-257c1c4c2430.jpg" />values reveal significant peaks at corresponding β value, which indicates <img src="12-2800604\ca3ac670-10e2-4dd1-88fd-6cf3752f5417.jpg" /> can distinguish different state objectively.</p></sec><sec id="s3_2"><title>3.2. Sensitive Numerical Simulation of Noise Intensity Q</title><p>It can be known from Equation (8) that this system shows various forms of phase locking and/or bifurcation patterns depending on parameters β and Q for N = 1. Here how noise intensity Q affects the result of detection is considering. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Figure 2</xref> is phase changing for Q = 0.001, 0.01, 0.05, 1 respectively and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">Figure 3</xref> is the corresponding detection result. It indicates that enough strong noise intensity makes phase distortion which leads not to detect different clusters with phase synchronization.</p></sec><sec id="s3_3"><title>3.3. Sensitive Numerical Simulation of Sequence Length</title><p>Because small noise intensity is better for the detection, Q = 0.001 is chosen. Then the influence of sequence length is considered. For the phase system, it is assumed that phase changes as the same with the time changing. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig4">Figure 4</xref> is the clustering result for different sequence length. It shows that with sequence length n increasing, <img src="12-2800604\252cad53-cf6a-4972-9041-b070e92e02b4.jpg" />reveals significant peaks at the borders of different states and <img src="12-2800604\36074694-5872-4db3-b907-6f30d2052de4.jpg" /> value becomes smaller. Because of unchanged dynamic mechanisms of phase system, time points of segment borders are unchanged too, while <img src="12-2800604\ae2361ee-81a3-47d9-9882-610913ac8b0c.jpg" /> value means the ratio of some cluster to all possible clusters, hence its value should get smaller over time which is in accord with physical meanings of<img src="12-2800604\3bb4aec6-7969-4b6a-805d-60105acf1d78.jpg" />.</p></sec></sec><sec id="s4"><title>4. Application of Practically Observed Data</title><p>For the sake of the adaptability of practically observed data to phase clustering, MSPI (Multi-scales Standardized Precipitation Index) [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.41372-ref16">16</xref>] January 2009-December 2012 of 31 observation stations in southwest China is analyzed on Southwest Drought Event in fall 2009. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig5">Figure 5</xref> shows the clustering result of Bijie station in Guizhou province as an example. It shows that this station experienced total three processes, i.e., increasing drought, oscillating continuous drought and gradually getting moist. Phase clustering method can detect the temporal process objectively to a certain degree. For this drought event, some station in southwest China began getting drought from January 2009.</p></sec><sec id="s5"><title>5. Summary and Discussion</title><p>In view of extreme values events mathematically rather than the process about extreme weather events, phase synchronization clustering method is introduced and the applicability of the method is discussed from the aspects of noise intensity and sequence length. At last the observed data are applied. The results show that clustering measure difference <img src="12-2800604\7163a780-9ff2-4703-a198-b957c6e2a201.jpg" /> can detect the temporal process objectively to a certain degree and it has certain application to detect the temporal process of extreme weather events. For simplicity, we only study one-dimension data and multi-dimensions data deserve further research which our future research would focus on.</p></sec><sec id="s6"><title>6. Acknowledgements</title><p>Funding was obtained from National Science and Technology Support program under Grant No. 2012CB955901 and National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.41105033.</p></sec><sec id="s7"><title>REFERENCES</title></sec></body><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="scirp.41372-ref1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007, pp. 1-15</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.41372-ref2"><label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">P. Frich, L. V. Alexander and P. M. 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