<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!DOCTYPE article  PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "http://dtd.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en" article-type="research article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">TEL</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Theoretical Economics Letters</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2162-2078</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Scientific Research Publishing</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4236/tel.2013.32019</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">TEL-30820</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Business&amp;Economics</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>
 
 
  Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting and the Existence of Time-Inconsistent Retirement
 
</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>.</surname><given-names>Scott Findley</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>James</surname><given-names>A. Feigenbaum</given-names></name></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Department of Economics and Finance, Utah State University, Logan, USA</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail:<email>tscott.findley@usu.edu(.SF)</email>;</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>04</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>03</volume><issue>02</issue><fpage>119</fpage><lpage>123</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>November</day>	<month>29,</month>	<year>2012</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>December</day>	<month>28,</month>	<year>2012</year>	</date><date date-type="accepted"><day>January</day>	<month>25,</month>	<year>2013</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>&#169; Copyright  2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. </copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><license><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>
 
 
   The decision about how much to save for retirement is likely to be dependent on when an individual plans to be retired, and vice versa. Yet, the established literature on hyperbolic discounting and life-cycle saving behavior has for the most part abstracted from choice over retirement. Two notable exceptions are Diamond and Koszegi [1] and an important follow-up study by Holmes [2], which demonstrates that time-inconsistent retirement timing is impossible when saving behavior is explicitly modeled in a stylized three-period setting. In this paper, we build upon the framework of Diamond and Koszegi [1] and Holmes [2] by generalizing the assumptions about initial income and assets. We show analytically and via simple numerical examples that time-inconsistent retirement can exist in a three-period life-cycle model of consumption and saving.<b>
     </b> 
 
</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting; Retirement; Life-Cycle Consumption/Saving Theory; Time Inconsistency</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><body><sec id="s1"><title>1. Introduction</title><p>Research findings from psychology have been used to gain insight into many of the important questions that are typically studied by economists. A prominent example is that of hyperbolic discounting, in which a sizable body of research has documented that hyperbolic discount functions provide a better fit to choice data relative to the exponential discount function.<sup>1,2</sup> A hyperbolic discount function is characterized by a discount rate that declines in the delay. And as demonstrated in the influential study of Strotz [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref11">11</xref>], a non-constant discount rate in the delay engenders time-inconsistent preferences. Accordingly, hyperbolic discounting has become a conventional way to model and study life-cycle decision making when an individual is impulsive and has problems in following through with formulated plans or intentions.</p><p>Excessive debt and delayed saving for retirement are some of the most important economic applications of hyperbolic discounting.<sup>3</sup> Yet, the established literature on hyperbolic discounting and life-cycle saving behavior has generally abstracted from choice over labor supply. Although understandable given the additional complexity that might exist as a result of having multiple margins of time inconsistency, it is conceivable that ignoring labor supply decisions could lead to skewed predictions about the effect of hyperbolic discounting on saving outcomes. This is due to the possibility that saving and labor supply decisions are determined in tandem. Indeed, the decision about how much to save for retirement is likely to be dependent on when an individual plans to be retired (the extensive labor supply decision), and vice versa.</p><p>The study by Diamond and Kőszegi [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref1">1</xref>] was the first theoretical investigation into the effects of hyperbolic discounting on the retirement decision. In an important follow-up study, Holmes [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref2">2</xref>] shows that time-inconsistent retirement timing is impossible when saving behavior is explicitly modeled within a simple three-period setting of the variety used by Diamond and Kőszegi [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref1">1</xref>]. Yet, Holmes [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref2">2</xref>] hypothesizes that “a more general T-period model” (p. 130) might lead to time inconsistency in the retirement decision. Indeed, this is verified in Findley and Caliendo [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref13">13</xref>] using a continuous-time model that examines the effects of hyperbolic discounting on saving behavior when retirement is endogenous. In this paper, we point out that time-inconsistent retirement can also exist in a three-period setting with a slight generalization of the assumptions about initial income and assets.<sup>4</sup> This is important given the prevalence of studies in the fields of public economics and macroeconomics that use threeperiod life-cycle/overlapping-generations models to assess the effects of government policies regarding retirement.</p></sec><sec id="s2"><title>2. Theoretical Framework</title><p>An individual lives for three periods and acquires utility from consumption and from leisure. The utility acquired from consumption each period is<img src="7-1500286\72c52833-13f6-41e0-a392-be4acd654773.jpg" />, where <img src="7-1500286\3091ce6f-32ed-4fd9-85b4-9f7ce6cd2c2e.jpg" /> is consumption in period<img src="7-1500286\8788db06-fbff-41a6-bae4-8ed90549a64a.jpg" />. Leisure in period 1 and period 3 is exogenously imposed, namely <img src="7-1500286\72ab6d05-6a70-4789-bc30-9d5a158a34be.jpg" /> and<img src="7-1500286\80948df4-5d2b-496c-90f7-d599369a951a.jpg" />. The representative individual has choice over leisure in period 2 such that<img src="7-1500286\627805c5-5938-47e7-ae70-086d4d759d16.jpg" />, where <img src="7-1500286\4aa8c567-e025-448b-b1de-1b4f12044d1e.jpg" /> is the period utility of leisure (the cost of working). From the perspective of the first period, the intertemporal utility function of the individual is</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131152"><label>(1)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\56963991-aeb2-483f-978a-3f278e192ce2.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="7-1500286\ee17cd0b-0b64-4f40-bbba-f16ed37b1701.jpg" /> and <img src="7-1500286\7413f5b1-bb83-43fc-8627-e2c9dbbf5872.jpg" /> are the short-term and longterm discount factors. From the perspective of the second period, the intertemporal utility function is</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131153"><label>(2)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\c9054fbf-fc91-41e0-858b-76f299ab3a09.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Note that if<img src="7-1500286\747bbc7f-d20e-437d-b90a-0878a7574fc4.jpg" />, then (1) is not consistent with (2), meaning that the marginal rate of substitution between <img src="7-1500286\e2b7d529-23e9-418d-bf8e-161e613d9103.jpg" /> and <img src="7-1500286\85ea25b7-9257-4d97-9ae5-f0998a037f81.jpg" /> is <img src="7-1500286\9a5a90f3-0441-481d-a9b9-6f3e0269767a.jpg" /> from the perspective of period 1, yet it is <img src="7-1500286\66df40ab-e94b-47d5-a450-8fd4433e9a03.jpg" /> from the perspective of period 2. We assume that the individual is naive about his time-inconsistent preferences. This means that in period 1 the individual selects an allocation of consumption and leisure that he believes will be followed in the current and in future periods in order to maximize (1). Yet, the individual will update his choices in period 2 such that (2) is maximized.</p><p>We generalize the setup of Diamond and Kőszegi [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref1">1</xref>] and Holmes [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref2">2</xref>] such that the representative individual makes choices in period 1 with cash on hand, <img src="7-1500286\9753683a-f588-45da-a4d9-055f99d7a16a.jpg" />, which can consist of current labor income and financial wealth.<sup>5</sup> The individual earns unit income in period 2 if he chooses to actually work. Therefore, the individual’s constraints in periods 1 and 2 are respectively</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131154"><label>(3)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\2d207b27-eda1-490f-ad57-6c00e64b0a3c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131155"><label>(4)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\69ebfa4c-2e51-484c-bb3f-2f5f60a1d3f0.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>We assume a zero interest rate, but we do not impose any restrictions on S<sub>1</sub>. Yet, <img src="7-1500286\aae5d42e-a41b-4e30-a550-6fbe205de862.jpg" />and <img src="7-1500286\227ca930-9df7-49a1-bccb-6554b19cda6f.jpg" /> are necessary to entertain the possibility of retirement in period 2.</p><sec id="s2_1"><title>2.1. Optimization in Period 1</title><p>With the superscript on the choice variables denoting the period of planning, the individual plans to consume</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131156"><label>(5)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\292c6b8d-7264-4769-8429-347f9d23de6d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>with <img src="7-1500286\5fc2d42f-446e-4b9f-921f-1e43b5f982a1.jpg" /> and<img src="7-1500286\0830a95f-9f2e-4bf3-a3d9-00f74dbcc1e8.jpg" />, given the individual’s period-1 intention of his period-2 leisure choice,<img src="7-1500286\b8c6e678-4282-4306-ad3e-fdd0b29c174e.jpg" />. These intentions imply period-1 savings,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131157"><label>(6)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\25133a0d-7ebc-46e5-ad0e-0392659eea9a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>The individual will choose in period 1 an intention of his period-2 leisure, <img src="7-1500286\b233e64b-27eb-4121-9f96-9c7ea3d6bf5f.jpg" />, in order to maximize his well-being from the perspective of period 1. Therefore, he will plan to be working during period 2 if</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131158"><label>(7)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\2e0bd8ce-3357-479d-8441-4bc9ca3471aa.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Otherwise, he will intend to be retired during period 2.</p></sec><sec id="s2_2"><title>2.2. Optimization in Period 2</title><p>Given<img src="7-1500286\78800608-261b-44f1-95bf-4ff72da903a4.jpg" />, which is dependent on whether the individual intended to work or to be retired during period 2 from the perspective of period 1, the individual will select the consumption allocations from the perspective of period 2</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131159"><label>(8)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\155ef892-b43e-473a-b445-0d2925647d2d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and<img src="7-1500286\51c069cb-3464-478d-ad9b-1698dad886be.jpg" />. Note that these allocations are both dependent on the individual’s choice to actually work or to be retired during period 2, meaning that the individual will also choose <img src="7-1500286\60d3f99e-5fb5-4fdf-9597-195b8c7d555d.jpg" /> to maximize his intertemporal utility from the perspective of period 2. Therefore, the representative individual will choose to actually work during period 2 if</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131160"><label>(9)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\f14a1323-f723-40ea-be48-d77cca07f18d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="7-1500286\4cebced0-c7e4-4419-9813-4c75e99363ef.jpg" /> is the threshold level of saving that is required to finance retirement during periods 2 and 3.</p></sec><sec id="s2_3"><title>2.3. Time-Inconsistent Retirement Timing</title><sec id="s2_3_1"><title>2.3.1. The Existence of Planned Normal Retirement and Actual Early Retirement</title><p>We first study whether or not the possibility can exist for the individual to initially plan on working in period 2 from the perspective of period 1, and then reverse his original plan by actually retiring when period 2 arrives. The normal retirement intention will occur if<img src="7-1500286\e0211b62-88b3-48b1-b7a1-01caea23c39a.jpg" />, but the individual will actually choose to be retired when period 2 arrives if<img src="7-1500286\69565b0d-adb8-49d6-a465-95326f9d96ba.jpg" />. The latter of these two inequalities is equivalent to</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131161"><label>(10)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\0d99b837-12a1-4556-8f0d-ee6aa8139701.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="7-1500286\14d6b357-ee3f-42b4-aeba-59ba10153554.jpg" /> is the lower-bound value for period-1 cash on hand that would enable savings from period 1 to be high enough to finance retirement during period 2, even though the individual had intended on normal retirement from the perspective of period 1. Holmes [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref2">2</xref>] analytically demonstrates that <img src="7-1500286\ec9a97a2-846c-43dd-9158-b6728db79819.jpg" /> given<img src="7-1500286\c8585d10-7f30-412b-901b-fd578f083790.jpg" />, meaning that the retirement decision must be time-consistent with unit labor income in period 1 and with<img src="7-1500286\1cf133af-9e80-454b-a9f5-c93707b66b25.jpg" />. We find parameters <img src="7-1500286\610f4f00-f55a-43ff-970f-23f0c3561562.jpg" /> with <img src="7-1500286\8869d7ca-cd10-4e98-b8a8-e1fb8e6308b3.jpg" /> such that<img src="7-1500286\4d0bc8ec-7c70-4ca8-bdf5-1b7b07f2efc6.jpg" />.</p><p>This indicates that time-inconsistent retirement timing can exist for the special case of unit labor income and a zero initial savings account balance, if long-term patience is entertained.<sup>6,7</sup> However, we are primarily interested in examining parameterizations with<img src="7-1500286\f1d1badd-cc68-4982-8fc5-d8cdd0f87b72.jpg" />. From (7) and (10),</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131162"><label>(11)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\f67a8683-0c14-4dc2-935d-937737b7a322.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>as<img src="7-1500286\04d0bcc8-65c9-41d1-a75d-e0c263f5d14d.jpg" />, meaning that<img src="7-1500286\2e9f5315-7dde-4a6c-bf84-b8bc50fbdd71.jpg" />must exist if<img src="7-1500286\7f135ada-6696-4d06-98a4-0a66200face8.jpg" />.</p><p>This highlights the existence of time-inconsistent early retirement when initial assets are non-zero and/or if<img src="7-1500286\e424dd23-6cc3-452c-894f-8fb81acaefc8.jpg" />. Yet, time-inconsistent retirement can also exist for larger values of<img src="7-1500286\6e4b0fad-2d13-4daa-80c4-b2588a239350.jpg" />, such as<img src="7-1500286\8a47c966-5848-48a6-8ee2-9875115f5ff9.jpg" />, and <img src="7-1500286\a3dc1317-444d-4ffe-adcf-2ab324a5fb8a.jpg" /> which yields<img src="7-1500286\bbf9ea65-82e3-48d9-8ff4-95b991927cd2.jpg" />.</p></sec><sec id="s2_3_2"><title>2.3.2. The Impossibility of Planned Early Retirement and Actual Normal Retirement</title><p>We now examine whether or not it is possible for the individual to intend to be retired during period 2 from the perspective of period 1, and then reverse his original intention by delaying retirement and actually working during period 2. An early retirement intention will occur if<img src="7-1500286\8a52c896-3907-4a73-b773-7690b93aa24c.jpg" />, but the individual will actually end up working during period 2 if<img src="7-1500286\6c492f65-5d74-44ee-8c1f-f1d967487055.jpg" />. This implies</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131163"><label>(12)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\f965f34a-5bd9-4553-ac0e-a3c392baeec4.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="7-1500286\12d872a0-d87f-48d2-bd8e-c322ce0b4259.jpg" /> is the upper-bound value for period-1 cash on hand that would lead to insufficient savings in period 1 such that the individual cannot finance retirement when period 2 arrives, even though period-2 retirement was the intention from the perspective of period 1. We formally state our finding for this case.</p><p>Proposition. The following sequence of retirement timing is impossible: 1) The individual initially plans to be retired in period 2 from the perspective of period 1; and then, 2) The individual actually chooses to work during period 2.</p><p>Proof. The ratio of (7) to (12) can be mathematically arranged as</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131164"><label>(13)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\d96d0f9b-74e4-455d-8436-8fedd2375857.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.30820-formula131165"><label>(14)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="7-1500286\70851909-5207-45ae-aace-d4a284082760.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Given<img src="7-1500286\eab84c0c-1c1c-4b03-a18e-666f4d843592.jpg" />, the first multiplicative term in (13) is greater than 1 if<img src="7-1500286\100fa913-a816-498b-a6b7-5407a1385e0d.jpg" />. The second term is also greater than 1 on account that <img src="7-1500286\8126f563-0420-4c5e-88bb-a88dd9debf08.jpg" /> is increasing in <img src="7-1500286\b6b6e8ce-8ce7-4b31-96da-389e363310eb.jpg" /> for <img src="7-1500286\daf08782-dbed-4d1b-9038-bc55ef635619.jpg" /> and given</p><p><img src="7-1500286\f2798f0f-5ade-423d-8248-f012e5007211.jpg" /></p><p>under the same conditions on<img src="7-1500286\560bc7a3-d5a1-42ff-8fb5-8f25b12c6777.jpg" />. Thus, <img src="7-1500286\1cca9d97-c64d-4e44-81ce-6cfd145e1fed.jpg" />for all <img src="7-1500286\c356d789-17a9-4cd4-9341-310413ef1458.jpg" /> in the parameter space, meaning that (12) can never be satisfied. ■</p></sec></sec></sec><sec id="s3"><title>3. Summary</title><p>The retirement decision is one of the most important choices that an individual can make during his lifetime, since the timing of retirement determines the life-cycle budget constraint to a large degree. Holmes [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref2">2</xref>] shows that hyperbolic discounting yields only time-consistent choices about the timing of retirement in a stylized threeperiod life-cycle model, despite time inconsistency along the consumption and saving margins. We build upon the three-period life-cycle framework of Diamond and Kőszegi [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref1">1</xref>] and Holmes [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref2">2</xref>] by working with more general assumptions about initial income and assets, and we establish the existence of time-inconsistent retirement timing. More specifically, we find that it is possible for the use of a quasi-hyperbolic discount function to induce an individual to retire earlier than what was initially planned. This is important given the vast array of research in public economics and in macroeconomics that uses three-period life-cycle/overlapping-generations models to study the effects of government policies on retirement.</p><p>Findley and Caliendo [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.30820-ref13">13</xref>] show that it is also possible for an individual to delay retirement relative to previous retirement plans in a model that is set in continuous time with true hyperbolic discounting. Since we demonstrate analytically that this particular type of time-inconsistent (delayed) retirement timing is impossible given the coarse three-period time grid of the model in this manuscript, it remains an open question as to how a discrete-time threeperiod model with quasi-hyperbolic discounting would need to be modified to obtain delayed retirement timing. One possibility might be to model labor supply as a continuous choice during the second period of the life cycle, suggesting that actual retirement would occur at the exact moment during period 2 when leisure equals unity. We leave this question for future work.</p></sec><sec id="s4"><title>4. Acknowledgements</title><p>We acknowledge and thank Nick Guo, Frank Caliendo, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions.</p></sec><sec id="s5"><title>REFERENCES</title></sec><sec id="s6"><title>NOTES</title></sec></body><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="scirp.30820-ref1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">P. Diamond and B. Koszegi, “Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting and Retirement,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 87, No. 9-10, 2003, pp. 1839-1872. 
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