<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!DOCTYPE article  PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "http://dtd.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en" article-type="research article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">IJMNTA</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>International Journal of Modern Nonlinear Theory and Application</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2167-9479</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Scientific Research Publishing</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4236/ijmnta.2013.21003</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">IJMNTA-28679</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Engineering</subject><subject> Physics&amp;Mathematics</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>
 
 
  Some Explicit Formulae for the Hull and White Stochastic Volatility Model
 
</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>orella</surname><given-names>Fatone</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Francesca</surname><given-names>Mariani</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Maria</surname><given-names>Cristina Recchioni</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Francesco</surname><given-names>Zirilli</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Dipartimento di Management, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff4"><addr-line>Dipartimento di Matematica “G. Castelnuovo”, Università di Roma “La Sapienza”, Roma, Italy</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Università degli Studi di Verona, Verona, Italy</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Università di Camerino, Camerino, Italy</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail:<email>lorella.fatone@unicam.it(OF)</email>;<email>francesca.mariani@univr.it(FM)</email>;<email>m.c.recchioni@univpm.it(MCR)</email>;<email>f.zirilli@caspur.it(FZ)</email>;</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>13</day><month>03</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>02</volume><issue>01</issue><fpage>14</fpage><lpage>33</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>November</day>	<month>27,</month>	<year>2012</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>December</day>	<month>29,</month>	<year>2012</year>	</date><date date-type="accepted"><day>January</day>	<month>10,</month>	<year>2013</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>&#169; Copyright  2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. </copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><license><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>
 
 
   An explicit formula for the transition probability density function of the Hull and White stochastic volatility model in presence of nonzero correlation between the stochastic differentials of the Wiener processes on the right hand side of the model equations is presented. This formula gives the transition probability density function as a two dimensional integral of an explicitly known integrand. Previously an explicit formula for this probability density function was known only in the case of zero correlation. In the case of nonzero correlation from the formula for the transition probability density function we deduce formulae (expressed by integrals) for the price of European call and put options and closed form formulae (that do not involve integrals) for the moments of the asset price logarithm. These formulae are based on recent results on the Whittaker functions [1] and generalize similar formulae for the SABR and multiscale SABR models [2]. Using the option pricing formulae derived and the least squares method a calibration problem for the Hull and White model is formulated and solved numerically. The calibration problem uses as data a set of option prices. Experiments with real data are presented. The real data studied are those belonging to a time series of the USA S&amp;P 500 index and of the prices of its European call and put options. The quality of the model and of the calibration procedure is established comparing the forecast option prices obtained using the calibrated model with the option prices actually observed in the financial market. The website: http://www.econ.univpm.it/recchioni/finance/w17 contains some auxiliary material including animations and interactive applications that helps the understanding of this paper. More general references to the work of the authors and of their coauthors in mathematical finance are available in the website: http://www.econ.univpm.it/recchioni/finance. 
 
</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Stochastic Volatility Models; Option Pricing; Calibration Problem</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><body><sec id="s1"><title>1. Introduction</title><p>We study the Hull and White stochastic volatility model [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref3">3</xref>] in presence of a (possibly) nonzero correlation between the stochastic differentials of the Wiener processes appearing on the right hand side of the model equations.</p><p>Let <img src="3-2340054\82828d99-d067-49ad-bf04-0323faffbc57.jpg" /> and <img src="3-2340054\cdf8c10d-9f68-4f6c-b01d-048ce8ed121c.jpg" /> be respectively the set of real and of positive real numbers and let t be a real variable that denotes time. The real stochastic processes<img src="3-2340054\55e65b0f-cbc1-4d85-a6bd-78d0435aff45.jpg" />, describe respectively the asset price and the associated stochastic variance as a function of time. The Hull and White stochastic volatility model assumes that <img src="3-2340054\d247fbdf-bcd1-4845-8f33-b653dee35390.jpg" /> <img src="3-2340054\500da868-8416-4042-8cb6-51ea78fc63b9.jpg" />, satisfy the following system of stochastic differential equations (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref3">3</xref>]):</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78820"><label>(1)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\423a5fb1-6df8-4b54-8d11-4d58e989f3c4.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78821"><label>(2)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\be9eab48-5af8-4e9c-8513-3050df559043.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\6569f267-29b5-4d60-b0b5-e202df124cff.jpg" /> are real parameters. The processes<img src="3-2340054\d57f652d-3c1b-4616-9283-16f16a0a92c8.jpg" />, are standard Wiener processes such that<img src="3-2340054\0d787220-51f5-4471-93a2-44f4b832f423.jpg" />, and<img src="3-2340054\bc270e49-c634-4290-9c29-b5fb6ff97340.jpg" />, are their stochastic differentials. Moreover we assume that:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78822"><label>(3)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\ff1aaad4-9ab5-4620-a2ed-9177390944f8.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\8149216a-b5ed-491f-8b1f-1c2c0079b6b6.jpg" /> denotes the expected value of ∙ and the quantity <img src="3-2340054\45844fd4-76b7-4ce5-804f-b6f00aa2257d.jpg" /> is a constant called correlation coefficient. The autocorrelation coefficients of the previous stochastic differentials are equal to one.</p><p>Equations (1) and (2) are equipped with the initial conditions:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78823"><label>(4)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\bc1944b8-7aa4-410d-982b-a9153b74407b.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78824"><label>(5)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\7aef7cc9-86c6-4a11-9ef3-f00d05caf55f.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="3-2340054\f662fff7-0922-47fa-a370-20e2f8aab57b.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\41b5b70e-cb04-45b4-829b-623b91d4b69f.jpg" />are random variables that we assume to be concentrated in a point with probability one. For simplicity we identify the random variables<img src="3-2340054\3d9d537e-cba4-41e9-b24e-be61417046d1.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\ab83d130-526a-44e3-b1a1-1772fe959a5d.jpg" />with the points where they are concentrated. We assume<img src="3-2340054\c73c5543-1ca7-4337-a78f-ca3b87bea65d.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\430d9ab5-b693-4ea5-8af3-ef3cd9798a73.jpg" />. The assumption<img src="3-2340054\1efd0df0-188c-4bbe-8659-fcfa7b83ff82.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\c0db2091-a7c6-4047-93b3-1fb00bf563f5.jpg" />with probability one and (1) and (2) imply that<img src="3-2340054\3362dacd-cbc7-4ad5-ae93-03598664f06d.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\b1b34df5-e015-4ecf-9bc7-a5bc3f365b2b.jpg" />with probability one for<img src="3-2340054\e6fe5102-5273-4ab4-b39b-ef5c5161e213.jpg" />.</p><p>For later convenience we rewrite Equations (1) and (2) using the volatility process<img src="3-2340054\a342acf8-0ae3-477d-ba5e-4f9c6c65482f.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\56bed020-a0e7-430d-908b-c5faaf6b9575.jpg" />, instead of the variance process<img src="3-2340054\8b9ca1ae-5ade-49e3-9dd5-67238195b1d7.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\9e1cccbe-8949-4ce8-b387-d9cd894e0d06.jpg" />. Recall that we have:<img src="3-2340054\ee106c12-b9a9-4047-a4be-61c9a2c85c59.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\2c13b7b0-7d49-4406-b4f3-98e7d1721808.jpg" />. Equations (1) and (2) become:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78825"><label>(6)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\04b13a31-c980-4c6e-afc2-46abbf3a48b9.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78826"><label>(7)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\d30f8da1-a176-4e63-a519-88497d09135a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="3-2340054\4b74ffc5-3f20-4602-bed0-ed5bd32708c8.jpg" />. Note that when <img src="3-2340054\42853cca-6111-43b1-b3e3-a0312d6dbdd0.jpg" /> and <img src="3-2340054\8deddd36-5388-4821-ac37-d41a91d499d2.jpg" /> the Hull and White model (6), (7) reduces to the lognormal SABR model [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref4">4</xref>]. The lognormal SABR model is a generalization of the Black model in the context of stochastic volatility and is widely used in the practice of the financial markets.</p><p>Let us introduce the centered log-return <img src="3-2340054\5c080150-14fe-4722-8bcc-da72abf19ca9.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\435f6946-c114-4930-a2fe-810ae33d5dc8.jpg" />, and the quantity<img src="3-2340054\9e3f858f-20de-456a-8b46-07cf7839de0b.jpg" />. Equations (6) and (7) can be rewritten as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78827"><label>(8)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\6b098e01-9a93-46f1-93eb-50a2b1418519.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78828"><label>(9)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\9e68472d-c80b-4d2d-9d06-863ea01e8034.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and the initial conditions (4) and (5) become:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78829"><label>(10)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\fbf92ae5-4ec6-46e8-8a9b-1da21d969be2.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78830"><label>(11)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\e4821c12-f329-4037-8712-ed5f1c7b2703.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="3-2340054\91c0dce1-6b09-45c0-a5ad-ed843ccb6f34.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\051a0c01-6dfd-4dcf-b83c-3c2d35c4cbec.jpg" />are random variables that are concentrated in a point with probability one. Note that <img src="3-2340054\b88f310c-4232-4922-939f-75514eb3539d.jpg" /> is concentrated in zero with probability one. Moreover the assumption that <img src="3-2340054\1f319575-1f16-4864-8651-9c84eb3b0344.jpg" /> with probability one and (7) or (9) imply that <img src="3-2340054\50ce2852-e64f-4e5d-9b28-c157bb4ef386.jpg" /> with probability one for<img src="3-2340054\ae644309-a01d-4178-9f08-09efd1ae282a.jpg" />.</p><p>The Hull and White stochastic volatility models (1)-(5) has been introduced in mathematical finance in 1987 (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref3">3</xref>]) and is one of the first stochastic volatility models where a diffusion term that is time-varying and stochastic rather than being simply a constant is used to model the variance. More precisely in the Hull and White model a one factor model (i.e. Equation (2)) is used to model the variance (or the volatility) of the asset price (i.e. Equation (2) or (7)). When <img src="3-2340054\921857b7-7710-4450-aea2-62c71371c3fb.jpg" /> the transition probability density function of the Hull and White model and the corresponding European call and put option prices have been expressed with closed form formulae. In fact in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref3">3</xref>] for the Hull and White model when <img src="3-2340054\90a73e04-1315-494e-8a6a-3507dd3d0e28.jpg" /> it is shown that the price under a risk neutral measure at time t of a European call option with maturity time<img src="3-2340054\2d6b0c18-425a-4373-b022-eeb190f69dab.jpg" />, such that<img src="3-2340054\a31fa6c8-eb61-43cf-acc3-2518b6926678.jpg" />, is given by the standard Black Scholes option pricing formula replacing the variance coefficient of the Black Scholes formula with an integrated average stochastic variance<img src="3-2340054\044ea6dd-a3df-40a1-9fd4-e44d9b8222cc.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\0f50a0e5-384a-4983-8341-00334584c087.jpg" />, where</p><p><img src="3-2340054\ba7ab08d-72d5-4466-9d2f-08b4ef64a7c0.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\e5b7a662-5767-41cd-bcb2-e69ed0feffce.jpg" />, and taking the expected value of the resulting formula (see formula (8) in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref3">3</xref>]). Note that in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref3">3</xref>] no analytical expression for the probability distribution of the average stochastic variance<img src="3-2340054\5161c386-84eb-44e2-9339-51dcc7ab9174.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\8047991b-116c-4e1f-a2a3-3ed0e4b721d8.jpg" />, is given. Only recently when <img src="3-2340054\0de44ebf-5c3f-4cb0-b289-b2b3d8025d18.jpg" /> a formula for the probability distribution of the average stochastic variance<img src="3-2340054\16fb9fad-d040-4ea7-bef8-b64b71fe71b5.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\9c731aca-3c93-4005-8ee4-ce2b30a68646.jpg" />, has been deduced [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref5">5</xref>]. Moreover in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref5">5</xref>] when <img src="3-2340054\4b7a69e8-9f3f-408c-980d-6c2ad7af6012.jpg" /> closed form formulae for European call and put option prices in the Hull and White model are given. Until now in the Hull and White model when <img src="3-2340054\deaa4c68-071c-4b51-8e44-4eef743b8138.jpg" /> the option prices have been computed using the Monte Carlo method (see [3,5-7]) or evaluating numerically series expansions in the correlation coefficient <img src="3-2340054\fd49f1db-9ee0-48d0-ac0d-083c96147af7.jpg" /> (see, for example, [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref8">8</xref>]).</p><p>In the last decade several modified versions of the Hull and White model have been proposed (see [8-11]). Some of these models contain a multifactor model of the asset price variance (or volatility). Usually in these models the characteristic function of the stochastic process implicitly defined by the model equations can be written explicitly (see, for example, [10,11] and the references therein). Models with nonzero correlation coefficients have been considered. However in these models the dependence of the asset price process from the “volatility process (or processes)” is substantially different than the dependence of these processes in the Hull and White model [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref3">3</xref>]. Generalizations of the Hull and White model (see, for example, [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref9">9</xref>]) in the context of jump diffusion models have also been considered. These generalizations usually retain the analytical treatability of the case <img src="3-2340054\ae85b489-1d05-4d6c-9ac1-ced38a1b6f0c.jpg" /> of the Hull and White model.</p><p>In this paper when <img src="3-2340054\fb7240d7-68e4-4af5-a361-8f9e06cf9cfd.jpg" /> a formula for the transition probability density function associated to the processes<img src="3-2340054\f96d09e0-0fe3-4126-a2d7-25593502157c.jpg" />, implicitly defined by (8)-(11) is deduced. This formula gives the transition probability density function of the stochastic processes<img src="3-2340054\ac34366a-d840-4d78-bb2c-127d1bfcf64d.jpg" />, as a two dimensional integral of an explicitly known integrand and its deduction is based on some recent results on the Whittaker functions [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref1">1</xref>]. The formula obtained generalizes similar formulae deduced recently for the SABR and multiscale SABR models [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref2">2</xref>]. Thank to it when <img src="3-2340054\ab8466e0-9be2-4610-a1d5-7977497c4c3e.jpg" /> closed form formulae for the prices under a risk neutral measure of European call and put options in the Hull and White model and closed form formulae for the moments of<img src="3-2340054\fec318cb-72a8-442f-b834-940c02097beb.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\286a2de0-a5de-4c9c-9a2e-e0e3657f2f47.jpg" />, and of<img src="3-2340054\1985d0b7-d5cb-4410-bd4f-08f15f0dad1d.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\62fc6ded-d6ed-4cd2-8ffc-9c0c75eaebea.jpg" />, are derived. The formulae of the European call and put option prices in the Hull and White model when <img src="3-2340054\c51f614f-8899-4a66-96d1-9a6fdd8a1fff.jpg" /> are expressed as three dimensional integrals of explicitly known integrands. The closed form formulae for the moments of<img src="3-2340054\3a318bd5-7ed5-4163-b77e-4390abac5386.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\96fb238d-81d7-4c31-9d6a-bf02c0f36bb4.jpg" />, do not involve integrals and have been derived using a technique introduced in [12,13] in the study of the SABR model.</p><p>The moments of<img src="3-2340054\7d115c1b-0da0-4e3d-a059-5894a61e41c1.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\562cb56f-aa31-470d-9a0a-0bdb915903ea.jpg" />, are also studied with the same technique, however for these last moments closed form formulae (that do not involve integrals) are available only for the moments of order smaller than two. The moments of<img src="3-2340054\92154fe9-ce4a-442a-842a-d4521e4fa3ff.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\dd4b6176-3b9c-4761-b2fb-2d03421d2146.jpg" />, of order greater or equal than two are expressed by formulae containing integrals of explicitly known integrands. Proceeding as done in [12,13] it is possible to use these moment formulae to study calibration problems for the Hull and White model when asset price data are considered.</p><p>In Section 3 proceeding as done in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref14">14</xref>] we show that for the Hull and White model admits infinitely many risk neutral measures depending on a parameter. The risk neutral measures have the same expression of the physical measure when we interpret r as the risk-free interest rate and <img src="3-2340054\00520c67-d786-43a0-a489-a0095ced18d3.jpg" /> as a new drift that contains the risk premium parameter. This fact makes possible to deduce the option pricing formulae in a risk neutral context.</p><p>The results announced are based on the relation of the transition probability density function of the Hull and White model with the “heat kernel” of the index Whittaker transform [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref15">15</xref>]. The heat kernel of the index Whittaker transform<img src="3-2340054\7d8f9da4-8eaa-4ede-be2a-4e1a142b0fb0.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\9eae4e9e-0c46-4b8b-b6fd-5208b84d2093.jpg" />, is defined as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78831"><label>(12)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\5f8180e8-ed11-4ad2-835c-232a8ffa0f4f.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\d5e62ff9-4f1a-4815-a418-04a728e60f8f.jpg" /> is the set of complex numbers, and i, sinh, <img src="3-2340054\3aec18cb-2944-47e2-ad7d-7f2b366d21e3.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\563844b8-86b2-4316-b967-183cde81b2fa.jpg" />denote respectively the imaginary unit, the hyperbolic sine, the Whittaker function of indices <img src="3-2340054\44fd5cff-33f4-49d1-b4ed-293af67f27b9.jpg" /> (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref16">16</xref>] page 505) and the gamma function (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref16">16</xref>] page 253). Let <img src="3-2340054\19774fdf-7117-4105-ba3f-6ddfc98bd96b.jpg" /> and <img src="3-2340054\faff0bc3-13c6-47ec-99be-5543e11fb6fb.jpg" /> be the real part of b, in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref17">17</xref>] it has been shown that a sufficient condition to guarantee the convergence for <img src="3-2340054\462d3af5-9644-4c3b-8f2a-e14659f5bf43.jpg" /> of the integral contained in (12) is<img src="3-2340054\c3d15b5e-c457-4e0f-b563-17a6db9370e3.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\09d62ee8-cbc9-40d3-8c34-f5bebc3e5fd0.jpg" />.</p><p>The kernel of the index Whittaker transform (12) generalizes the heat kernel of the Kontorovich-Lebedev transform [18,19] that has been used in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref2">2</xref>] to derive the explicit formulae of the transition probability density functions of the normal and lognormal SABR and multiscale SABR models.</p><p>Let <img src="3-2340054\ea1d21f9-7163-40c9-9a4b-2cbd4408caa7.jpg" /> be the Hilbert space of the functions defined on <img src="3-2340054\12b1231a-f985-4e2f-a7cd-ac574b041548.jpg" /> that are Lebesgue square integrable in <img src="3-2340054\fd1deb15-8042-49ba-82b8-7f0fb7821eda.jpg" /> with respect to the measure<img src="3-2340054\412de5bd-19a1-4d84-8f3a-ab124fd8155f.jpg" />. In our analysis of the Hull and White model we deduce the following formula (see Appendix A):</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78832"><label>(13)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\f7ed7c54-e867-4159-8f4b-18715cdfc51a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Note that the integrals contained in formula (13) must be interpreted in the sense of distributions. Formula (13) is a straightforward consequence of the result presented in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref1">1</xref>] and generalizes the inversion formula for the Macdonald transform presented in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref20">20</xref>] and used in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref2">2</xref>]. In [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref1">1</xref>] no restrictions on b are considered. Note that the condition <img src="3-2340054\0a4c3423-0c44-49e5-8d47-fc0b63731d49.jpg" /> is a sufficient condition to guarantee the regularity of the functions<img src="3-2340054\67a2380e-472c-40da-896b-a64652063383.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\ef1bff82-64e6-490a-964f-829ee9ad8f09.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\b57294b1-a698-4c1c-9e16-0eaff558aad6.jpg" />, (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref17">17</xref>] for further details) that appear in (13).</p><p>Finally using the option pricing formulae deduced a calibration problem for the Hull and White model (1), (2) is formulated as a nonlinear constrained least squares problem and is solved numerically. The calibration problem considered uses as data a set of option prices. Given the asset prices the calibrated model is used to forecast option prices. Numerical experiments with real data are presented. The real data studied are those belonging to a time series of the USA S&amp;P 500 index and of the prices of its European call and put options. In particular forecast option prices obtained using the calibrated model are compared with the option prices actually observed in the financial market. This comparison establishes the quality of the model and of the calibration procedure.</p><p>The website: http://www.econ.univpm.it/recchioni/finance/w17 contains some auxiliary material including animations and interactive applications that helps the understanding of this paper. A more general reference to the work of the authors and of their coauthors in mathematical finance is the website: http://www.econ.univpm. it/recchioni/finance.</p><p>The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 when <img src="3-2340054\907f2a52-72a2-4aeb-b3b9-f3f6c3118207.jpg" /> we derive a formula for the transition probability density function of<img src="3-2340054\c21d7c8e-7719-481a-8418-ddc97f55114a.jpg" />. In Section 3 we deduce a closed form expression for the first two moments of<img src="3-2340054\7d498589-1ec9-465c-93ad-0be778dccf3d.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\bc57441d-2dfc-46d6-a5ab-a19634aed28b.jpg" />, and an integral representation formula for the higher moments of<img src="3-2340054\a7c096ad-79b8-4fca-91c5-2ae1048291b4.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\a485a554-daa7-42ad-8a0d-da282b96e3b1.jpg" />. In Section 4 we derive a recursive formula for the moments of<img src="3-2340054\f3d4b646-3a20-45b3-a691-288d6c1cecaa.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\ec448ce7-5348-4c78-879e-151240a0a839.jpg" />. This recursive formula is used to obtain closed form expressions of the first three moments of<img src="3-2340054\b922811c-4b49-48c0-831e-4b9f570604f1.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\43044099-14e2-4a41-8603-f76a62d494b5.jpg" />. In Section 5 we derive formulae for the option prices in the Hull and White model. The formulae deduced in Sections 2-5 hold when<img src="3-2340054\4fd03206-2d03-4c24-8579-b1c87f71a4a2.jpg" />. In Section 6 using the previous option pricing formulae we formulate a calibration problem for the Hull and White model. Moreover we present a forecasting procedure that, given the asset price at the time of the forecast, forecasts option prices using the calibrated model. The calibration problem and the forecasting procedure are tested in numerical experiments with real data. The real data studied are those belonging to a time series of the USA S&amp;P 500 index and of its European option prices. Finally Section 7 is made of two Appendices that contain some auxiliary formulae used in the paper.</p></sec><sec id="s2"><title>2. The Transition Probability Density Function</title><p>Let us consider the Hull and White models (8)-(11). We denote with<img src="3-2340054\12060952-ec89-4a0c-b3b4-148a9c3deff6.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\5c3f6bfc-bc99-4607-b8a6-a47137bc9c4b.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\809a2e88-4fd5-4bc9-8ae6-79ced14d66e5.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\9e979166-7998-4f29-ac58-6b52225d84da.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\75d93cb4-ccbe-44cb-9f2c-e704943fa8d8.jpg" />, the transition probability density function of the stochastic processes<img src="3-2340054\78795ae0-02c8-448b-ae6f-b34de3d579bb.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\6cefdb39-343c-47e0-b71e-261ca0f7ca8e.jpg" />, implicitly defined by (8)-(11). The function <img src="3-2340054\1c8b759f-7af1-4add-8871-d002dafcea68.jpg" /> is the probability density function of having<img src="3-2340054\5517dcae-4cca-4a4c-9086-d78ff40d50c0.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\f3943faf-b999-4367-b7cb-d2771a534169.jpg" />given the fact that<img src="3-2340054\09f34005-bef9-439f-bf87-1a388830c319.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\0bb928d2-7d67-401a-9dff-8e53cc8e536e.jpg" />, when<img src="3-2340054\75905a15-a41c-4bc2-8bb2-761efa6c4e00.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\c32ca69f-9195-4494-94e8-aa1018d4ea33.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\399a83a3-fa12-4090-b07a-c9a8cc9acb19.jpg" />, and<img src="3-2340054\eec928d4-e83e-4301-9bac-86b6b2fc74dc.jpg" />. When <img src="3-2340054\5e852c28-41be-457d-b58e-a34872cb1fe0.jpg" /> we must choose<img src="3-2340054\7b2bf177-bf1b-4eef-82b7-6e925ac55745.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\a1f1c96c-e72b-406c-8299-7b5de6199493.jpg" />. Note that the backward Kolmogorov equation associated to (8), (9) is invariant by time translation and that this implies that p is a function of <img src="3-2340054\3f962fc7-efd6-4afc-91e7-d065abdecd1d.jpg" /> instead of being a function of t and <img src="3-2340054\19ffd1d7-9021-4efd-bd1c-b12b2efd18fe.jpg" /> separately when<img src="3-2340054\83712da0-35b7-4b88-b8b6-9dd5e58cf6f9.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\e1b646dd-3d58-4410-ac7a-9c730fe89f2d.jpg" />. We denote with<img src="3-2340054\31528d85-44a1-47f0-9ccb-f25162230908.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\8dc05893-8b68-4df2-88ca-c43009fc9034.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\2dac91f5-b75b-40b5-bed1-c4b0ebd72df8.jpg" />, the function <img src="3-2340054\cb20127f-b55d-490d-a426-fc28e5604eb1.jpg" /> considered as a function of the variables<img src="3-2340054\07d4b5a0-ba3a-4ce8-a7d6-7d2a2ca88851.jpg" />. The function<img src="3-2340054\c7e1217d-90f4-4629-8db7-76251a528596.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\1ffa8abd-de1d-414d-94db-7c21e49b0204.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\a259bbe1-e676-4fe2-b0bf-146fb9059d67.jpg" />, satisfies the backward Kolmogorov equation associated to (8), (9):</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78833"><label>(14)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\406db60f-14b0-41a5-9072-6b640eb48cf8.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and the initial condition:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78834"><label>(15)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\f7f33802-31ff-4e7c-937a-9f1f569d0434.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\8913567d-1971-4ba5-8fdb-787a21c72140.jpg" /> denotes the Dirac’s delta. Recall that <img src="3-2340054\557c2568-68fd-4596-a531-0befaad6328e.jpg" /> is defined as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78835"><label>(16)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\2593604a-3517-470d-b262-865fb4773350.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>We show that:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78836"><label>(17)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\7b5ce75b-d762-42cc-ab58-49ea3eac7344.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where g is given by:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78837"><label>(18)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\daff15c7-8540-4d59-a817-f1cde670ece2.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>The functions ν(k) and a(k), <img src="3-2340054\01dcb5a0-f305-4270-aff9-920d3dd4c064.jpg" />, in (18) are given by:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78838"><label>(19)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\8df7af97-1d72-4fdd-8830-cbfb4993b549.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Formulae (16), (18) and (19) hold when<img src="3-2340054\fe44a912-df81-4b45-80c8-82723d17c210.jpg" />.</p><p>Note that when <img src="3-2340054\dd77f582-3941-4c81-bf31-5ed29b71df65.jpg" /> and <img src="3-2340054\95673e8d-b128-4e89-a134-fbecfd5eac4d.jpg" /> formula (18) contains the heat kernel of the index Whittaker transform (12) and that when <img src="3-2340054\9712dc16-8342-436d-b653-b06fd88a9979.jpg" /> formula (18) can be rewritten as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78839"><label>(20)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\55623062-762b-4e3a-b366-aa9525bdf12b.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="3-2340054\ea53ab97-98a3-4e5b-b4ce-98326f97631c.jpg" />, is the modified Bessel function of the second kind with purely imaginary index (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref16">16</xref>] page 375). Moreover when <img src="3-2340054\4f67ddba-9b5b-49c8-9738-3e9284825898.jpg" /> substituting (20) in (17) we have:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78840"><label>(21)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\075e36c4-c099-4a2b-ad64-2111727bb6a3.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78841"><label>(22)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\18ac88dc-7018-4eed-b785-3c10f5d7427f.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Formulae (17), (18) and (21), (22) are the main results of this section.</p><p>Let us derive formula (18). Substituting (17) in (14), (15) it is easy to see that if the function g satisfies the initial value problem:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78842"><label>(23)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\1e8acf69-45ec-4ab3-b732-634b0af7270a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78843"><label>(24)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\88972582-2f91-432d-9f37-0b2454e5d85e.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Equations (14) and (15) hold. Note that the initial value problem (23), (24) depends on the parameter <img src="3-2340054\66bbd37a-3ffb-4690-822f-09e517c2f911.jpg" /> and recall that k is the conjugate variable in the Fourier transform of the variable<img src="3-2340054\355c03a3-b453-4b6f-8a39-9185693a6b7b.jpg" />.</p><p>Let us seek the solution of problem (23), (24) in the following form:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78844"><label>(25)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\094ff007-bde3-4c48-ab9a-bb9ab4ec66de.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where L is a function that must be determined and (the constant) <img src="3-2340054\e43fbedd-db86-4354-8ef6-41923b328ada.jpg" />will be chosen later. Substituting (25) in (23) it is easy to see that (23) holds if L as a function of <img src="3-2340054\e7206541-b857-4760-a5ce-6e5a74f66aec.jpg" /> satisfies the following equation:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78845"><label>(26)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\2ceb67c2-8e62-4ebb-b016-1001671feefa.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\dbf874f8-54e8-4017-b577-bc606654867a.jpg" /> and<img src="3-2340054\8da245a1-999b-466e-afd6-7f7a57515969.jpg" />, are given by (16), (19) respectively. To solve (26) let us make the following change of dependent variable:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78846"><label>(27)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\dcceda9c-0efe-4179-99cd-28843b2ed8f0.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Moreover in (26) let us consider the new dependent variable Q as a function of the new independent variable<img src="3-2340054\d448b4c9-d009-413e-a206-bf98fb4ca61f.jpg" />. Note that the variable z is considered as a complex variable. Let <img src="3-2340054\b24f6675-8d9a-4705-b67c-b7e255849cd4.jpg" /> be the function Q as a function of<img src="3-2340054\6970696a-fc5d-4d34-bb6c-adb386c117f4.jpg" />. Choosing <img src="3-2340054\6334073b-9d27-48a0-a42e-40e9268e29df.jpg" /> from (26), (27) it follows that <img src="3-2340054\4ff1d8a9-19b1-48cd-85ad-5a8019536ff1.jpg" /> satisfies the equation:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78847"><label>(28)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\cd2e0407-c221-457c-a86e-1cac387405fa.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Equation (28) is known as Kummer’s equation (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref16">16</xref>] page 504). The solution of (28) that decays exponentially when <img src="3-2340054\7629b9c1-548d-452a-aacc-5a917605c786.jpg" /> is (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref21">21</xref>] page 797):</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78848"><label>(29)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\733eee93-9997-41b6-9800-ab92b8c60244.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\b61c01c9-0a65-4974-bf0c-52c9a59eaf8a.jpg" /> is a constant with respect to <img src="3-2340054\a0721df2-93dd-4ca0-b297-db2cc69d545b.jpg" /> that must be determined in order to satisfy the initial condition (24) and<img src="3-2340054\6b11e187-29ec-4852-9b12-1a5f8db19339.jpg" />, is defined in (19).</p><p>Substituting (29) and (27) in (25) we obtain:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78849"><label>(30)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\672fb5a2-796d-47fb-bea0-ec97a6b45e53.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>To impose the initial condition (24) we use formula (24)) (see Appendix A) from which we obtain the following expression for<img src="3-2340054\f8859469-1ee3-4e7c-b99d-5fd1cce9eb91.jpg" />:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78850"><label>(31)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\1f157387-e2b4-4895-830d-e3ec708e219a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Substituting (31) in (30) we obtain formula (18).</p><p>When <img src="3-2340054\e8883436-ca92-4f2c-a04c-dfad84facb7c.jpg" /> formula (20) can be deduced from formula (18). In fact when <img src="3-2340054\38538167-a6ca-45bd-9a22-c9763f741e04.jpg" /> we have<img src="3-2340054\a30fd729-749d-47ee-97ae-0fe27799f8b3.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\b5e032a0-d764-40cf-b575-207d354f1689.jpg" />, and the following relations hold (see F. Oberhettinger [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref22">22</xref>] page 287 and [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref16">16</xref>] page 256, formula 6.1.30):</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78851"><label>(32)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\00d37df6-990f-4a9f-9703-9d1d6707a9be.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78852"><label>(33)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\c9898cee-d8b4-496d-ad8f-3188bcd3cbf9.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Finally formulae (21), (22) that hold when <img src="3-2340054\479286b8-f65a-4397-83d6-73210bb3c375.jpg" /> are obtained rewriting the expression (20) of g when <img src="3-2340054\757bb38a-0a1e-403d-bae5-a0af595b8feb.jpg" /> using (32), (33), the formula for the Laplace transform of the function<img src="3-2340054\fc41fa54-5943-4cfc-95fd-13aa8b843dc8.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\bdcdb4e1-a4de-43a2-9b17-cfe7e0c568ea.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\5bc5f4d8-cce8-4126-8525-b69f31b22e73.jpg" />(see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref23">23</xref>], page 146 formula (26)), that follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78853"><label>(34)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\71d12372-03ec-4732-8e9f-902cb84262f0.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and the representation formulae:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78854"><label>(35)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\714a0543-962c-4647-9e63-7fed22689a8c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78855"><label>(36)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\7dc27eb7-da80-4d86-b1fb-ddec252dc781.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Formulae (35) and (36) can be deduced from formula (46) page 35 of [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref23">23</xref>], formula (9) page 176 of [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref24">24</xref>], and formula (1.1) of [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref20">20</xref>] (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref2">2</xref>] for further details).</p><p>Note that the technique used here to obtain formulae (17), (18) and (21), (22) is similar to the one used in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref2">2</xref>] to deduce the formula for the transition probability density function of the lognormal SABR model.</p></sec><sec id="s3"><title>3. Moments of the Asset Price</title><p>Let<img src="3-2340054\ace63cd8-29dd-4266-bff9-d85709a45fa7.jpg" />, and <img src="3-2340054\02a0a165-84df-42a2-8be9-c55cb8053820.jpg" /> be the <img src="3-2340054\97bb4934-6cd5-43cf-8c30-f8c23dc6f419.jpg" /> moment with respect to zero of the variable<img src="3-2340054\afa48a2e-e304-45a1-9b8d-8258cd968d80.jpg" />, implicitly defined by (1)-(5), that is:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78856"><label>(37)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\c6223614-e1a9-40ac-9490-eacffc06cc90.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\51d9ee34-4913-4456-8dd6-29e3f1517854.jpg" /> is given by (17) and we have <img src="3-2340054\daf0896e-93a2-4ec1-b575-5779d76dae71.jpg" /> and<img src="3-2340054\7f4db5ce-0bc2-4fc6-9595-e6527c9a5f07.jpg" />.</p><p>Let us rewrite formula (17) as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78857"><label>(38)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\af80422f-86a1-4c15-b141-c3b46f0c49df.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where the functions<img src="3-2340054\f2fc9461-d5fa-4191-9841-67ee6d44f6ac.jpg" />, will be determined later in this section. Using (38) Equation (37) becomes:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78858"><label>(39)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\15856b2d-a588-4096-a3dc-6c077783a626.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="3-2340054\af457672-26ca-4492-9a1c-a42de5fb8809.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\7be53737-2f57-40dc-9f29-9e836fdd8a58.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\9c542a21-7c67-4c2b-8ade-2055345349d0.jpg" />,</p><p><img src="3-2340054\5cc50821-792f-401f-b0c6-2916e682ee48.jpg" />. That is for <img src="3-2340054\1cb0d237-3482-4abe-bcc1-46d33658a559.jpg" /> the knowledge of the n-th moment <img src="3-2340054\70e97b00-4813-4895-a3ce-c48f6f8b5a12.jpg" /> of the state variable<img src="3-2340054\de6d3182-4097-4625-800f-d91465236514.jpg" />, is reduced to the knowledge of<img src="3-2340054\56226af2-147b-44c4-978b-5e28429158da.jpg" />. To determine <img src="3-2340054\25dbebe0-9f94-4961-ad6a-79c45f2e51e6.jpg" /> we derive an initial value problem for a partial differential equation satisfied by<img src="3-2340054\5102c235-efbc-4189-96c5-6f82231376e8.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\16fa75a2-51e2-4f86-b2ee-0f685b43bae6.jpg" />. Note that when <img src="3-2340054\c6c732f0-1180-410a-b8fd-ad75ace54f67.jpg" /> the function <img src="3-2340054\58207e60-ce13-405b-a344-02d298596dfd.jpg" /> is the function g given by (18) and that the partial differential equation satisfied by <img src="3-2340054\aa56657d-f762-4152-bebb-6f13196f4ccb.jpg" /> that we are looking for is Equation (23).</p><p>Substituting (38) in (14), (15) it is easy to see that the functions<img src="3-2340054\23867ccb-95e1-4b72-81e5-b094d08f801a.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\2521745a-dc22-4c9c-855e-cd76faf21746.jpg" />, satisfy the following partial differential equations:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78859"><label>(40)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\6d1b2686-3a33-4d1d-b4d1-70b116f70ca2.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>with initial conditions:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78860"><label>(41)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\c35dae5b-9755-4ee2-9e17-81e09aba9390.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Proceedings as done in Section 2 when n = 0 to solve problem (23), (24) it is easy to see that the solution of (40), (41) that guarantees that <img src="3-2340054\aa2f4f0f-a58f-4607-b051-a90ff6b819a0.jpg" /> is a probability density function is:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78861"><label>(42)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\83ad6425-fde5-4507-b356-e6e6bcb0c2b4.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where the functions <img src="3-2340054\d3405c96-23e2-46bb-98bd-c4cd6191269a.jpg" /> and<img src="3-2340054\c21a685f-29b7-4427-b415-70660b31273d.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\c005aa03-3332-4353-a3b2-8d41e3ebe65f.jpg" />, are defined as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78862"><label>(43)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\03932cb6-032e-46b7-95b9-5aeb32a68bd9.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78863"><label>(44)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\223539c9-6bc7-4752-a41c-c4a9004350ab.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>For <img src="3-2340054\cbdea4ee-d16e-45d2-a929-4bffdbb70623.jpg" /> when <img src="3-2340054\764e6d3c-b8af-48ba-98a7-bea6b6dd8ff7.jpg" /> the function g<sub>n</sub> (i.e. the function<img src="3-2340054\066b44ce-7c24-4a9b-923f-50f841b80834.jpg" />) satisfies problem (40), (41) with k = 0. Integrating with respect to v when <img src="3-2340054\c4df4a98-f5b9-42f6-a3e0-67b6e6d8c6a9.jpg" /> Equations (40), (41) when k = 0, we obtain a set of initial value problems satisfied by the functions<img src="3-2340054\4fb4d0b7-2c34-4980-a26d-7e8b3826ca65.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\0fb22a40-06c5-43e4-ac5e-babf5d200555.jpg" />. That is we obtain the following partial differential equations:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78864"><label>(45)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\155d43dc-44cc-466f-85c5-eec5505d076f.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>with initial condition:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78865"><label>(46)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\03ef4884-e1e9-4b76-8d22-abae46d92aba.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>It is easy to see that when <img src="3-2340054\08edab95-b3ce-449e-ab6b-d96ea15f03a6.jpg" /> the solution of problem (45), (46) is<img src="3-2340054\08238bc9-af4a-4827-8592-507899456cce.jpg" />. From (39) it follows that:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78866"><label>(47)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\f8f6c70b-1ff5-4bdd-a383-b45b783ccdc8.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>When <img src="3-2340054\81e933b2-b40c-4c21-bc78-2d1590542e17.jpg" /> problem (45), (46) can be solved using (42) and we have:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78867"><label>(48)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\1582307e-b507-42c2-ace6-d02a83010816.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Substituting formula (48) in equation (39) we obtain the integral representation formula for the moments<img src="3-2340054\ebcdc815-d38f-46cf-94ba-ad371936bdfd.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\1888a717-43bc-4343-b9bc-0808d7b00b83.jpg" />, announced in the Introduction.</p><p>For <img src="3-2340054\8ff4c4a2-81db-4b6b-8a17-df5763b354b6.jpg" /> in order to guarantee that the function <img src="3-2340054\f1fff707-7e23-4207-8c96-7acd1478891c.jpg" /> does not diverge when v goes to plus infinity and that <img src="3-2340054\65e2c0b9-26f3-4569-9b04-83a113d2a9cd.jpg" /> is well defined we must require that the real part of <img src="3-2340054\4a117dce-2d7f-44bd-9a91-56da8a92bb36.jpg" /> is positive (i.e.<img src="3-2340054\3be1d0fa-24d7-4c54-b13a-e3dce569c4a6.jpg" />). This implies that the following condition holds:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78868"><label>(49)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\d1503a39-7a82-4dc5-99b5-433bcb758356.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Condition (49) can be rewritten as a condition for <img src="3-2340054\54fa2a82-91ed-42ac-b945-5e0cb96ecba2.jpg" /> given<img src="3-2340054\bce930ee-dba5-46a1-9541-b76bf60dda37.jpg" />, that is:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78869"><label>(50)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\f443b77e-ed35-4a52-baa7-bb180dbd240c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>For <img src="3-2340054\3c127f20-c26d-4589-bd43-3e5c894e392e.jpg" /> condition (50) guarantees the convergence on the n-th moment <img src="3-2340054\27cfd351-0940-43ce-8d15-4882149b0135.jpg" /> of<img src="3-2340054\921176ee-945d-4f3e-b800-005cae87c54d.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\29ac97bb-a345-4ff6-8eab-b3e1f5946f6e.jpg" />. The same condition for the convergence of the n-th moment of<img src="3-2340054\d42cb5bd-4a0d-43a3-af16-81b3fa78653d.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\3c108221-8913-4019-b28e-c9498b27fa42.jpg" />, in the case of negative correlation (i.e. the condition<img src="3-2340054\c5291567-5037-47db-a8e7-917b217f3b54.jpg" />) has been derived in a different way in the study of the lognormal SABR model (i.e. the model obtained choosing<img src="3-2340054\2f25d16b-5118-443e-ad37-8462849d24d5.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\f7c66edf-c448-43f9-bdd9-a5b368e43cbb.jpg" />in (6), (7)) in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref25">25</xref>] Theorem 2.3. Note that condition (49) for the convergence of the n-th moment <img src="3-2340054\31d8bda8-ccf0-4e3d-ac17-af3913d46a5a.jpg" /> can be rewritten as a condition for n given<img src="3-2340054\70e14e2c-a384-4409-a466-b7301dd0320e.jpg" />, in this case we have:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78870"><label>(51)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\dfcbe297-0e86-4c26-8757-147e77220c29.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>From the formula<img src="3-2340054\fe27064b-bcee-4307-96f7-1407cf7848fa.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\63c770b9-885f-4e56-bad8-d6faf4730f47.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\74671c40-b911-4679-8c6d-6fde5e93c631.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\d6253daf-6e71-4ff6-ba5f-d118edd11734.jpg" />, and from Equations (6) and (7) it follows that a risk neutral measure of the Hull and White model has the same expression of the physical measure when r is substituted with the risk free interest rate <img src="3-2340054\707de6fa-4943-41c7-98b9-965a41f697d9.jpg" /> and <img src="3-2340054\5dfab3d5-b673-4ec9-8102-83674d7b8fbf.jpg" /> is replaced with <img src="3-2340054\0ace8e5b-f0cf-45a5-b11d-eec41b1fff04.jpg" /> where <img src="3-2340054\88e30b25-20e5-4e9c-9983-fdd3c0dbe2ae.jpg" /> where <img src="3-2340054\6d7c6326-312c-45a5-b92b-4ccd5d0bb833.jpg" /> is the risk premium parameter (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref14">14</xref>] Theorem 4.1 and [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref26">26</xref>], pp. 17-18). That is there are infinitely many risk neutral measures in the Hull and White model depending from the value of the risk premium parameter.</p><p>This last observation allows us to interpret the formulae derived in Section 5 to price European call and put options under the physical measure as formulae to price these options under a risk neutral measure. Note that calibrating the Hull and White model (1), (2) using asset prices as data we can estimate the parameters of the physical measure <img src="3-2340054\cf9e53bb-525c-4c18-b2c1-6c866832ea6b.jpg" /> and consequently the parameters<img src="3-2340054\5d4929f3-e577-40a2-90df-ccf60f28e7d6.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\503b64c6-aea4-435d-a41c-64a2d9d09174.jpg" />and that calibrating the Hull and White model (1), (2) using option prices as data we can estimate the risk neutral parameters<img src="3-2340054\e7e6700a-7ae1-49f1-8629-f241d53a92a2.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\7baa7d12-98c5-45d5-94ed-d7c534ad1919.jpg" />. Recall that <img src="3-2340054\8e4bf377-f5d9-4df2-826a-f122f247b284.jpg" /> cannot be observed in the financial markets and that can be considered as a parameter that must be determined in the calibration procedure. The values of the parameters <img src="3-2340054\4a699fe9-38e3-4cac-817f-48810264f44d.jpg" /> and <img src="3-2340054\b77be5d9-63c9-4ba5-b304-d69fc1e365a6.jpg" /> obtained in this way determine the value of the risk premium parameter<img src="3-2340054\767d5de4-28ad-4d05-a575-f96d44e8bfb4.jpg" />.</p></sec><sec id="s4"><title>4. Moments of the Logarithm of the Asset Price</title><p>The processes<img src="3-2340054\97aac934-0efa-48a3-b33d-4c1540cb1701.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\ed12c20f-f5ec-45c5-bb28-44d5ddf12f68.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\be731d1b-c386-440e-9d35-f88b45da8c3c.jpg" />, satisfy Equations (8)-(11) and as a consequence the processes<img src="3-2340054\d5d77559-f313-45df-bafd-6d5379785f42.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\bb6a202a-fecd-4856-ba4e-b3af29050d0d.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\e74bf371-91d2-4e08-ae0d-7dfaedaf9c3f.jpg" />, satisfy the equations:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78871"><label>(52)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\f0dd56da-c149-4f84-a83a-16803175425d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78872"><label>(53)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\497694c3-319a-4c20-855e-42f32a8b3830.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>the initial conditions:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78873"><label>(54)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\97eb593b-bac3-4ab7-9b61-a5dc542778ef.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78874"><label>(55)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\0451ffb7-ed4f-4244-ba0c-988c25ee3453.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and the assumption (3) on the correlation of the stochastic differentials<img src="3-2340054\31b050ab-edd4-4725-90f3-62c75fa124f9.jpg" />.</p><p>For <img src="3-2340054\2158b669-0947-4426-a549-751b4ab7cf95.jpg" /> let<img src="3-2340054\5eb15a77-1b7c-43f9-b7bb-b86f3f1465e4.jpg" />, be the <img src="3-2340054\2777d2cc-32d7-40b5-9d5b-93f84b5e9eee.jpg" /> moment with respect to zero of<img src="3-2340054\f48a5a31-1868-4aea-a43b-afd42210a6fa.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\a18ea43b-a10a-4cf5-8d1d-bde3306b09c4.jpg" />, we have:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78875"><label>(56)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\7fb13f2d-efec-4bbe-976c-fd96d82f9ae3.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\9f09309e-074a-495f-8cf8-05967b2a1dec.jpg" /> is the transition probability density function associated to the stochastic processes<img src="3-2340054\4a6b0e54-d4d9-4da0-a433-b7d372bea898.jpg" />, implicitly defined by (52)-(55). The function <img src="3-2340054\9f480589-d9c3-4466-9758-a81c00ddd1ed.jpg" /> can be written as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78876"><label>(57)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\601d309f-4d5e-4a9d-94cf-676f47c70069.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and the function <img src="3-2340054\d1bb21e3-cfd7-44b9-ba4e-ac76796b4496.jpg" /> can be determined proceeding as done in Section 2. Note that <img src="3-2340054\168ceda6-197c-4156-819a-fea665e0f03e.jpg" /> depends on <img src="3-2340054\407dea29-6f58-4e61-a7ea-8249e213b7f0.jpg" /> and not on <img src="3-2340054\62684ea1-3a42-49de-80b8-39f4ffbbb5a2.jpg" /> and <img src="3-2340054\fbe1a2c0-cc3d-448e-b40e-fc5de71af0c8.jpg" /> separately, <img src="3-2340054\e3553f65-dc90-4563-841e-60b506422ff7.jpg" />, so that we can rewrite the moments of<img src="3-2340054\3a6987e4-987f-47fb-be00-ae1b8e14431f.jpg" />, defined in (56) as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78877"><label>(58)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\42efe094-3fc2-4477-b40e-708b1be6167c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78878"><label>(59)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\89abdf0a-c80b-4056-a2f0-763740e73b20.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Proceeding as done in [12,13] in the study of the normal and lognormal SABR models and in Section 3 to deduce the initial value problems (40), (41) and (45), (46) satisfied by the functions<img src="3-2340054\c82bf3a7-8e2a-43f3-ad66-f89de1b9adbd.jpg" />, it is possible to write an initial value problem satisfied by the function <img src="3-2340054\f8fb7346-8408-431e-9769-7da0d04af6df.jpg" /> and to deduce from it initial value problems satisfied by the functions <img src="3-2340054\aaa2d422-ae8c-4bab-b6f7-f28ca30eff92.jpg" /> That is it can be shown that<img src="3-2340054\c6d55548-7875-4106-b170-6aeda118c6f2.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\67e6b451-b55b-43a5-bf60-dd948241d44d.jpg" />, satisfies the following problem:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78879"><label>(60)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\af027de4-561a-4451-ba11-5cb6c66c039b.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>with the initial condition:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78880"><label>(61)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\25951f9b-7061-4f05-b9d3-877a4bc30f09.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and that the functions<img src="3-2340054\491ef532-b8a0-4c03-957a-4f62d8a892c9.jpg" />, satisfy the problems:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78881"><label>(62)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\ad09cdc1-42ca-46c2-8019-a2d2b5b01b43.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>with the initial conditions:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78882"><label>(63)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\848068d4-b17b-4785-b289-0c5a417e2bf7.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Note that in (62) when <img src="3-2340054\da8df64c-6eb0-4424-8a09-86688182a40b.jpg" /> we set <img src="3-2340054\e88fefc6-92b6-4e3a-aec1-c2bed703885c.jpg" />.</p><p>It is easy to see that the solution of problem (60), (61) is<img src="3-2340054\9d2ed010-b870-4b79-b566-4fa401d18e0b.jpg" />. In order to solve the initial value problems (62), (63) let us consider the following change of (independent) variable<img src="3-2340054\6b265e30-eeaf-4d32-b52b-79bd510bdee7.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\d4450e16-a0f2-4ae5-9f40-30d2fc11d9dc.jpg" />, and let <img src="3-2340054\a752267b-fbbd-4845-8328-9c9e5c29e9ae.jpg" /> be the function <img src="3-2340054\ab2b7640-3c90-4150-b8e3-0084cd7f21fa.jpg" /> expressed in the new variable<img src="3-2340054\6da5e870-40b6-4ca7-8fdb-589e0b590c7a.jpg" />, that is let<img src="3-2340054\96db4aa2-6c07-4c0b-b0e8-ffc17e5c4f3f.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\9ec8a1fb-2690-4535-a1de-692abe9691ac.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\131f23c4-8aa9-49f0-8a7a-076de9a829a9.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\fcbe248f-605c-4983-8e88-c7c8e1ff4331.jpg" />. The solutions<img src="3-2340054\b55e7aa4-7140-4103-9629-e3c77b8cd000.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\f286ebe0-132f-406d-bbbd-b2627617cf35.jpg" />of the problems (62), (63) expressed in the variables<img src="3-2340054\275d8a95-ced8-4690-ab2c-d74db8226f8e.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\877aad3d-08b3-402f-b224-334fdc507d21.jpg" />are given by:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78883"><label>(64)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\154024c9-680f-473d-abf8-f0d4e67a0eeb.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78884"><label>(65)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\c543ec40-fd36-4818-9a66-91a6348ae485.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>The integral in the <img src="3-2340054\c2744fa0-8eab-40f4-83cd-09ea0c28771d.jpg" /> variable in (64) is an elementary integral that can be computed using the following formula:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78885"><label>(66)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\717dc4c9-fc5c-46bf-b98e-39334fcd1240.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Formulae (64)-(66) together with some elementary computations give:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78886"><label>(67)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\eb847d59-d6ba-4b87-aa33-4a12037805c3.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78887"><label>(68)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\21a2b542-579d-48f5-9b26-ca4cb3b4ae34.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Let us choose<img src="3-2340054\c52f19b6-56d7-4c75-b7ae-aea42496ab06.jpg" />, we have <img src="3-2340054\b0bf7bd1-bb4d-4948-b794-b87d18dd4a82.jpg" /> in (58), (67) and (68). It follows that <img src="3-2340054\c27ee3b3-ab4a-4a0e-aafc-fb65fc7cf95d.jpg" /> and that the first three moments of<img src="3-2340054\88668db0-9113-415d-b4e7-fab0e35676f7.jpg" />, are given by:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78888"><label>(69)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\43214c79-820c-46d3-8098-5bf00fd9813a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78889"><label>(70)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\0a380d66-c24c-4c57-92d2-85b023441390.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78890"><label>(71)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\80336a3c-0400-4254-a165-057aca07e116.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Proceeding as done to deduce (67)-(71) the expressions of the functions<img src="3-2340054\77e4a15a-2ce7-4cf3-a166-76f4a49a0ad4.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\a35b8944-cbd0-4170-aedf-07e8ac596b33.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\c2fc10c7-09b1-4517-834b-3c9bb960c403.jpg" />, and of the moments<img src="3-2340054\39a0010a-6a3b-465f-9fd8-3356f223effe.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\75338355-dc91-479f-a67d-0119d9546ceb.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\81815c23-e046-4727-aeb5-f85408618e9c.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\abdfa8b9-bbc9-4594-ba89-eb51c7c62869.jpg" />, for <img src="3-2340054\f5b37b81-dd2f-40bc-a70b-c4291d7c6c63.jpg" /> can be obtained. These expressions become more and more involved when n increases. Note that formulae (70) and (71) are closed form formulae containing only elementary functions of quantities that can be observed in the financial markets. These formulae can be used to formulate calibration problems for the Hull and White model. Thank to the closed form character of these formulae it is possible to develop very efficient numerical algorithms to solve these calibration problems. In [12, 13] this idea has been exploited to calibrate the normal and the lognormal SABR models.</p></sec><sec id="s5"><title>5. Option Pricing Formulae</title><p>Let us derive in the Hull and White model the formulae of the prices at time <img src="3-2340054\4621c5ea-2958-46a8-bebc-bc472f948e17.jpg" /> of European call and put options having maturity <img src="3-2340054\168104d1-53a9-4ec9-accd-39eaa77de483.jpg" /> and strike price<img src="3-2340054\42a21975-3336-465f-b388-958ef7792680.jpg" />. These formulae express the option prices as three dimensional integrals of explicitly known integrands.</p><p>To this aim we rewrite the transition probability density function (17) as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78891"><label>(72)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\96fac2be-8277-4ad1-bd70-ab90da972bc5.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where c is a constant and g<sub>c</sub> is a function to be determined. Let us derive the expression of the function g<sub>c</sub>. Substituting (72) in (14), (15) it is easy to see that if g<sub>c</sub> satisfies the following partial differential equation:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78892"><label>(73)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\17747b32-6ea7-41fc-8020-93d83c18d49b.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>with the initial condition:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78893"><label>(74)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\ee4bb41e-1e4a-484c-ac19-5cdaf7218898.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>the Equations (14) and (15) hold. Recall that<img src="3-2340054\8700f74c-e716-42a6-bfad-94470fe0e865.jpg" />. Proceeding as done in Section 2 we deduce the following formula:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78894"><label>(75)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\3791c4c8-5ea5-4b21-8d65-bd9cb9fe775b.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where the functions<img src="3-2340054\6707d5ce-9c38-4bec-ae4b-1e3a130a346d.jpg" />, are given by:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78895"><label>(76)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\f979e89a-bfdc-4e82-a464-093f7078c605.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78896"><label>(77)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\384cc727-05b8-4422-8bce-99150fe97f2b.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Note that in order to guarantee that for <img src="3-2340054\1e6e829d-21fa-46cd-8849-13a2d837c21c.jpg" /> the function <img src="3-2340054\c11727ed-adda-43f7-8316-97a4c0a6bb5e.jpg" /> does not diverge when v goes to plus infinity and that the function<img src="3-2340054\679243fc-6d49-40d9-8264-b271b887058c.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\9935a3a9-ed91-4a82-9371-b43ff0dd9a0c.jpg" />, is well defined we must require that for <img src="3-2340054\00525505-e5d8-499b-8b5e-2bbb3fb6eb93.jpg" /> the real part of <img src="3-2340054\919f5f20-dfef-4dae-86b6-683bccb836ce.jpg" /> is positive. An easy computation shows that the condition<img src="3-2340054\ddf351eb-dd7f-4ac7-9d24-d6b55e2cb319.jpg" />, implies that c must satisfy the following inequalities:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78897"><label>(78)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\b84db1a7-34c0-4241-9028-687926e96db9.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>or</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78898"><label>(79)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\08b64039-e996-4b33-9cab-7f9334114978.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Let us choose c as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78899"><label>(80)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\44aa3011-c4c9-4614-b928-5b88f9530be8.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Note that the choice of c made in (80) when <img src="3-2340054\6e30e822-26dc-45db-a139-84a7a8978d7d.jpg" /> satisfies conditions (78) and (79), that is (80) is a satisfactory choice of c for<img src="3-2340054\497a151e-c843-4fc1-aefa-f6d4b6cb9e00.jpg" />. We rewrite the transition probability density function <img src="3-2340054\8cd632c5-39ff-4deb-afec-c0d98047f32f.jpg" /> as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78900"><label>(81)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\b6bc69c7-cbef-41e6-b978-dbeb77b4ae84.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where the function <img src="3-2340054\1d185a98-fd73-47bd-8769-10565c476e8d.jpg" /> that appears in (81) is given by:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78901"><label>(82)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\6aed07e4-fd97-479f-8503-9f77c8874c18.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and the functions<img src="3-2340054\1a78e4a6-8991-4aaf-845f-9c96ac84c2d0.jpg" />, are given by:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78902"><label>(83)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\854aa4f7-6a53-4dc5-b1b3-90dc42a9d448.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78903"><label>(84)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\113706ac-93ae-4ec6-8935-c957a9eb4795.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>The price <img src="3-2340054\44045cf4-bec4-4a6c-b20f-09470a97625a.jpg" /> at time <img src="3-2340054\8859412c-3eeb-4474-bf99-52f8f74366de.jpg" /> of a European call option having maturity <img src="3-2340054\ea2eaec6-c168-465c-bfe2-2970b916657b.jpg" /> and strike price <img src="3-2340054\4524009b-2b99-4133-b391-457a46965a4f.jpg" /> is the expected value of the discounted payoff with respect a risk neutral measure. As shown in Section 3 the risk neutral measures of the Hull and White model are obtained replacing in the physical measure the parameter r with the risk free interest rate <img src="3-2340054\418b51da-5db5-4cb0-baf0-af4aac1b3d69.jpg" /> and the parameter <img src="3-2340054\de169176-e8e0-47b3-a1cf-06045c0b6417.jpg" /> with <img src="3-2340054\8a2f45ac-09ef-4197-a680-ac52cecc0e5d.jpg" /> where <img src="3-2340054\f7bcb473-1ca8-4340-8955-4ac5c79578b3.jpg" /> is the risk premium parameter. That is we have:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78904"><label>(85)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\212625b3-07f2-4c12-aa50-34c955f06953.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\877a4ebc-8367-446e-8a51-d7f07f1c79f1.jpg" /> is the asset price at time t = 0 and <img src="3-2340054\74aaad79-9f2f-40eb-85f3-128801ec0d46.jpg" /> <img src="3-2340054\1880067b-52f7-41cf-80af-5f24214709ae.jpg" /> is the maximum between ∙ and zero and p is a risk neutral transition probability density function. That is in (85) the function p is given by (81) with the parameters r<sup>*</sup> and <img src="3-2340054\a14fc5de-9d0c-431a-a0cd-089a995394c5.jpg" /> instead of r and <img src="3-2340054\d7fbcb55-deb2-4156-b324-8dc81440b8f8.jpg" /> respectively. Note that the initial stochastic volatility <img src="3-2340054\ec45ce36-efd3-489e-b3a7-dba865286d77.jpg" /> is not observable and must be determined in the calibration process.</p><p>Using formulae (81) and (85) we have:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78905"><label>(86)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\63630d60-fe31-48ac-b2fa-c221a904f072.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>In (86) the integral in the variable x can be computed explicitly, in this way formula (86) can be reduced to the following formula:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78906"><label>(87)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\3bbd555d-6fba-4fc6-adc9-b707470f1d2d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\fdc64da5-90bd-4a10-b717-de4ba6e58291.jpg" /> is given by (82), and in (82) <img src="3-2340054\b9d43029-3607-42e7-896e-a97ecc754810.jpg" />and <img src="3-2340054\4cfff72c-1a83-48e8-b378-8d051f99281e.jpg" /> replace r and <img src="3-2340054\c5674504-b2a9-47ef-bca8-6fa44536a3fe.jpg" /> respectively. Note that on the right hand side of (86), (87), we have<img src="3-2340054\1aa336d7-b8be-48ec-a77d-c76bd5039d6d.jpg" />, however the prices on the left hand side of (86), (87) do not depend on<img src="3-2340054\ea10a79c-593d-4dad-bfa2-e267fc480c74.jpg" />. In the numerical experiments presented in Section 6 we choose<img src="3-2340054\1ccf7559-5d34-4660-8c41-05abe1161bec.jpg" />.</p><p>The price at time <img src="3-2340054\987a1dd1-58cd-415a-b14f-e4b05ac297af.jpg" /> of a European put option <img src="3-2340054\d4b527b6-716c-42eb-b5cf-4f52ccc882f0.jpg" /> having maturity <img src="3-2340054\8f935840-613b-4686-a2d9-84df670505b0.jpg" /> and strike price <img src="3-2340054\aa8ff727-d127-45cd-b2a9-e479d6ca7cb4.jpg" /> can be obtained using the put call parity relation. That is using the relation:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78907"><label>(88)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\daad8163-9c4e-426f-a9e6-ae2be22c8538.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where in the transition probability density p the parameters<img src="3-2340054\edb35bae-6286-4d5f-b3a6-c0582755122c.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\3ec847c4-faf1-40b8-ab1b-e06c91d64b4a.jpg" />replace r, <img src="3-2340054\d7ad5c62-20ac-409a-b6d9-4388e468566c.jpg" />respectively. Formula (88) follows immediately from the fact that the option prices are the expected value of the discounted payoffs with respect to a risk neutral measure. From (88) and the formulae for the first two moments of<img src="3-2340054\07e57027-4e9e-4f39-9703-78a94c7438ca.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\0d9a4519-4eda-4edf-b23e-929f6d73f57f.jpg" />, contained in (47) we have:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78908"><label>(89)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\afb39185-e6c5-4903-b870-262c9a4c1f79.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula></sec><sec id="s6"><title>6. Calibration Problem and Numerical Experiments</title><p>Let us consider option prices under a risk neutral measure. That is let us substitute the models (52)-(55) with the model:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78909"><label>(90)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\d54483ed-6539-4359-a107-447b51b1119a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78910"><label>(91)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\e6a9dc74-29e4-4f08-b263-4334bbd2a292.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>together with the initial conditions:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78911"><label>(92)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\88b719a9-ee6f-4554-bb50-cda4eee38e09.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78912"><label>(93)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\81542ee5-fff5-4402-92e6-510c575c1998.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="3-2340054\8580d379-fed0-4242-8334-94af8b9e6d48.jpg" />, are standard Wiener processes such that<img src="3-2340054\eb9dace6-cfd5-42f4-873a-f15b14722c24.jpg" />, and<img src="3-2340054\3f9cabb0-cb71-4325-800a-65a7f6a5cda3.jpg" />, are their stochastic differentials. The correlation structure of the model is assumed to be:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78913"><label>(94)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\647815cd-4062-41fe-b29c-25e87d89f4fc.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="3-2340054\d1bd1749-eea4-4a73-aeef-8944845d3a87.jpg" />.</p><p>The models (90)-(93), (92) is parameterized by five real parameters, that is:<img src="3-2340054\79cc4742-5c4a-45e4-88a3-1d7e4c35d02d.jpg" />.</p><p>Let <img src="3-2340054\8523edb7-9603-4358-954a-c6e65a06165e.jpg" /> be the five-dimensional real Euclidean space, let us introduce the vector <img src="3-2340054\f87a6002-fb0e-4068-9894-b1b99853f99e.jpg" /> given by <img src="3-2340054\8983fe20-c460-4fef-b451-370de51c49fd.jpg" /> and the set <img src="3-2340054\2d591ea1-8252-4583-bb85-7b9a70fbf02e.jpg" /> defined as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78914"><label>(95)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\ab7e6a7d-145e-4a16-ba92-738f64c7c166.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>The inequalities that define <img src="3-2340054\0a6159bf-c266-40a4-8a3e-d3ef5ad57da8.jpg" /> are dictated by the “meaning” of the parameters <img src="3-2340054\1f742716-6385-4c42-aa0f-96e69aa0e4fe.jpg" /> in the model equations. In the calibration problem that we study the vector <img src="3-2340054\61019e6a-e105-4659-bbbd-29572d6566e7.jpg" /> is the unknown that must be determined from the data and <img src="3-2340054\1b423d2a-e579-456e-b9f0-e92437e76f7b.jpg" /> is the set of the “feasible” choices of<img src="3-2340054\89cf0b0b-2875-4a79-a53f-1d09444ac342.jpg" />. We use as data of the calibration problem a set of option prices observed at a given time and we formulate the calibration problem as a nonlinear constrained least squares problem. This means that solving the calibration problem consists in fitting in the least squares sense, under the constraints defined in (95), the observed option prices (i.e. the data) with the option prices obtained evaluating the formulae deduced in Section 5 adapted to the circumstances.</p><p>Let <img src="3-2340054\f2290898-6f81-414a-8254-dcfd998f2682.jpg" /> be positive integers, <img src="3-2340054\998e5474-2db3-4119-86cc-d94b4f3112dd.jpg" />be the observation time and <img src="3-2340054\a43faa2e-9cd2-4f39-9f43-a21ebc5ea8ee.jpg" /> be the asset price observed at time</p><p><img src="3-2340054\ac3d1cc6-0512-4a1e-acbb-628e5eb52843.jpg" />. Let<img src="3-2340054\94db182c-a96b-456e-bd63-7c0fa001ee41.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\dc275556-65c3-4e4b-adf3-956c1138c308.jpg" />,</p><p><img src="3-2340054\f0ed0ae9-9fe8-43a0-b7f4-54d31d09b1a4.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\9a39b4fe-c1cc-4643-ae64-a10f6bca8504.jpg" />, be respectively the observed prices at time <img src="3-2340054\0bc2234a-104d-4067-88be-3353de843ad4.jpg" /> of the European call options having maturity time <img src="3-2340054\92dd107a-7e10-445e-8151-40d37b5643f5.jpg" /> and strike price<img src="3-2340054\1708580e-0127-48ec-9f54-19bedf7376bb.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\c5f870b2-0eb6-4c5f-8432-b07eba06d568.jpg" />, and of the European put options having maturity time <img src="3-2340054\ea6958ae-a869-4b76-88b9-2a23849a5c34.jpg" /> and strike price<img src="3-2340054\7b3440a3-a387-44bf-93b7-68e059dbb0c7.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\2951bd75-1b4c-49ce-b3e9-582da2b01dd9.jpg" />. Note that the values<img src="3-2340054\b6dcc2d0-4a8e-42d7-8cd2-815cbfe625a8.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\47f7eb71-79f7-4739-9ab0-983ce7f7d399.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\e4cd2c72-e9c4-4edc-8257-936a187b6cdf.jpg" />, and<img src="3-2340054\97a04163-e41b-4490-b4e7-0638123db0ed.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\c01935e9-d360-4145-a8af-b2a6b198fe2c.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\5e627543-35d2-485d-8b5c-fb1b0c7d3b5a.jpg" />, are not necessarily distinct. For example prices of options having the same maturity time and several strike prices can be considered as data, in this case in the previous sets of values some of the maturity times are repeated. Of course we assume<img src="3-2340054\77649798-f150-44f8-99c4-e0f3c5d2fda2.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\473ba114-7290-41cc-ab6e-584cfade571b.jpg" />, and<img src="3-2340054\c260b297-3cd3-45f5-a0ef-093d2bb30e05.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\7abeedc3-5745-47b1-99eb-39e5a4df36a0.jpg" />.</p><p>Let <img src="3-2340054\5832cee5-6883-43b9-9147-788cac19cc67.jpg" /> and let<img src="3-2340054\ba385813-8641-4261-9f90-08d649a7caee.jpg" />,</p><p><img src="3-2340054\b8cdc3e1-e983-4380-8a5a-f4c21b73e595.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\8198be6d-e477-4702-b20d-c364456ef73d.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\d4309611-3fd5-47bc-a15b-9fd58868a21a.jpg" />, be the prices as a function of <img src="3-2340054\1e698113-f526-4ab2-a9ae-2eb780464e23.jpg" /> at time <img src="3-2340054\1c450ef7-029e-4183-91a1-8ec7ae8ea71f.jpg" /> of the European call and put options obtained evaluating, respectively, formulae (87) and (88). Some obvious transformations of the data and of the formulae are necessary to evaluate the option prices using formulae (87) and (88). In fact, for example, in (87) and (88) we have chosen <img src="3-2340054\bd80efc6-e6f0-4361-a5a7-150718c2a03e.jpg" /> instead of leaving <img src="3-2340054\c43638fe-0246-4a47-8e2b-9945418857da.jpg" /> as a generic time value as done in this Section where we study real data.</p><p>The numerical quadratures necessary to evaluate (87) and (88) are done using the composite midpoint quadrature rule with 200 nodes in the k coordinate and 10 nodes in the v and <img src="3-2340054\ce21b758-fc4c-460a-acd8-2d515ac35d6b.jpg" /> coordinates. This choice guarantees approximately three significant digits to be correct in the option prices computed in the numerical experiments presented here. With these choices of the discretization parameters one evaluation of formula (87) requires approximately 40 seconds on the Intel CORE Duo CPU T6400 2 GHz processor. However it must be pointed out that the evaluation of several options (i.e. for example of a few dozens of options) that differ only for the value of the strike price requires approximately the same time than the evaluation of a single option when the computation is implemented exploiting the properties of the option pricing formulae. The calibration problem considered is formulated as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78915"><label>(96)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\51126cf4-0cbb-45d4-ad0e-0087c924f452.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where the objective function <img src="3-2340054\8352df4a-6846-4562-8e23-fddf547a8dad.jpg" /> is given by:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78916"><label>(97)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\14289f3f-589a-409e-b7b4-8f6504a7c321.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>The nonlinear constrained least squares problem (96) is only one possible formulation of the calibration problem studied between many other possible formulations.</p><p>In the numerical experiment that follows we solve problem (96) with a local minimization method. We choose the initial guess of the minimization procedure used to solve problem (96) exploring the feasible region<img src="3-2340054\cc098b53-5e9a-444a-b3d8-353cb05ccbf8.jpg" />. This is done taking a set of random points belonging to <img src="3-2340054\40455164-93c5-40c7-adb2-740cbcb5e733.jpg" /> and evaluating the objective function <img src="3-2340054\b5a6ebab-2306-44ea-ab8e-12bcb519ee92.jpg" /> on this set of points. The initial guess of the minimization method is chosen among these random points using a heuristic rule. The minimization method used is a variable metric steepest descent method (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref27">27</xref>]). This method is an iterative procedure that, given an initial vector<img src="3-2340054\3fb1dcf4-9bfa-4689-aa7b-3f32e9758ec2.jpg" />, generates a sequence<img src="3-2340054\ab78e7cb-741e-460e-b664-3fc5e6a3bbed.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\5839c4b1-349e-4a52-8f1e-7e00bece8483.jpg" />, of vectors such that<img src="3-2340054\b756f4f9-35ec-4729-9fcc-4d42efb0f21d.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\7c0b19a7-009a-499b-99e8-b83e0d778780.jpg" />, and<img src="3-2340054\ad20e616-e208-4148-85e2-eae814d8cb50.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\c5b990c2-574d-4a4c-9947-f01fa49abd16.jpg" />. For <img src="3-2340054\edf0b1f6-6ae2-4fcc-8745-552c3ec467cb.jpg" /> the vector <img src="3-2340054\12c949ff-6ed5-4515-9051-aa86d9d6b98e.jpg" /> is obtained from the vector <img src="3-2340054\54968ad1-63d1-4a5c-9b8d-e8a91ed97828.jpg" /> making a step of appropriate length in the direction of minus the gradient with respect to <img src="3-2340054\8d7c3039-ff7e-4dba-aee6-993668c419bb.jpg" /> of <img src="3-2340054\4745152b-4566-41a5-b4fc-980f2302a15e.jpg" /> computed in a suitable metric that depends on the constraints defined in<img src="3-2340054\3bc5cdca-60ae-45a6-9334-7d5b1472258b.jpg" />. The procedure stops when the following criterion is satisfied:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78917"><label>(98)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\7b2eca25-6060-402f-92ba-4055a319bea2.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="3-2340054\ababb89e-22a8-405b-8ec2-69553a289fdb.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\871a57c4-b532-4612-85ce-747bd1ec901b.jpg" />are given positive constants. Details about the variable metric steepest descent method used to solve the calibration problem can be found in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref28">28</xref>].</p><p>In the numerical experiment presented here we consider the closing value of the day of the USA S&amp;P 500 index and the closing prices of the day of the European call and put options on the USA S&amp;P 500 index with expiry date March 16th, 2013 and strike prices <img src="3-2340054\034b148c-68cf-42df-b85e-763684e0d041.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\d07a2a29-eeb1-4c88-b9b0-218932266f57.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\f1d5881b-17a8-4aa7-aa46-0e7f00fa89ad.jpg" />. These prices are observed in the time period that goes from April 2nd, 2012, to July 25th, 2012. Note that the observations are daily observations. Recall that in the study of financial data time series a year is made of about 252 trading days and a month is made of about 21 trading days. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref> shows the value of the USA S&amp;P 500 index as a function of time during the period of interest. Figures 2 and 3 show respectively the prices of the European call and put options on the index with maturity time March 16th, 2013 and strike price<img src="3-2340054\b57fe09c-23a4-4e8e-b16e-b98e6925d86a.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\2259577b-53e7-4803-9629-d5fa0d293dbb.jpg" />, specified previously as a function of time during the same time period.</p><p>Let<img src="3-2340054\09bafb2f-6960-40c2-ab92-ff9d55d7b10f.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\b0e7dee1-3f24-47cd-a8d6-78b8569aceb9.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\83b1f57a-171b-41eb-9d5c-f38d216551bb.jpg" />, we have that<img src="3-2340054\3549875f-efb7-4338-bf35-5205869576e0.jpg" />. We calibrate the Hull and White models (90)-(93) every (trading) day during the period that goes from <img src="3-2340054\bfaa8dad-455c-45d7-bce5-63cf3048086d.jpg" /> to <img src="3-2340054\788a4176-3e1c-4a35-b414-89cec1d906c6.jpg" /> using the prices of the European call and put options shown in Figures 2 and 3 when<img src="3-2340054\627e6884-bf91-4e72-9fdb-1d1cd19a7f48.jpg" />. That is we consider a rolling window made of the data of a day that covers the period April 2nd, 2012, May 15th, 2012 (thirty trading days) and we solve the corresponding thirty calibration problems (96) with<img src="3-2340054\20b73fbb-490d-46dd-a0b3-d86deac90898.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\478789b3-f277-4a4a-ba37-79d0c3363b23.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\5daa5962-a4f7-4a25-ab35-fe441296e291.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\594898af-e98e-470e-81ce-a4f317bce312.jpg" />. The calibration procedure stops according to criterion (98) where we have chosen<img src="3-2340054\99ec720b-065c-4c4c-929b-1fc84768b476.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\59443088-1074-41f9-b0cb-1020a85b20a4.jpg" />.</p><p><xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig4">Figure 4</xref> shows the risk neutral parameters obtained using the calibration procedure. We can see that the parameter values as functions of time do not change significantly. That is the values of the parameters of the models (90)-(93) obtained solving the calibration problem are somehow “stable” during the observation period. The values of the parameters shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig4">Figure 4</xref> are used to forecast the option prices one day ahead. That is we use the parameter values obtained calibrating the model with the data of <img src="3-2340054\54799817-70a5-44e4-83bf-d6ad66f7a121.jpg" /> to compute the option prices at<img src="3-2340054\5ed603f5-1593-40ce-a3e1-0930025cf338.jpg" />, obtained using<img src="3-2340054\6c7dc7bb-03c5-4e26-9104-0400f083c4ce.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\41518331-ee16-4c10-8777-5b663176fb64.jpg" />. The forecasts of the option prices are obtained evaluating the European call option with formula (87) and the European put option with the put call parity relation (89) given the call price. Of course the formulae (87) and (89) must be adapted, with some obvious changes, to take care of the circumstances of the data time series. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig5">Figure 5</xref> shows the observed and forecast values of the European call and put option prices. The average relative errors on the forecast values of the European call and put option prices when compared with the corresponding prices observed in the financial market are respectively 8% and 5% Note that if we remove from the constraint contained in the definition of <img src="3-2340054\0efc79ed-63cb-4e1f-9097-36a126b3d783.jpg" /> the request that <img src="3-2340054\07ef9cfc-8a51-4ed2-ace5-b0b83b15bbf9.jpg" /> must be non negative the solution of the calibration procedure shows a negative risk free interest rate of about minus 2% (see <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig6">Figure 6</xref>) with an average of the relative errors between forecast and observed call and put prices respectively of approximately 2% and 3% (see <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig7">Figure 7</xref> and http://www. econ.univpm.it/recchion/finance/w17). That is if we allow negative risk free interest rates we improve the forecast of the prices of the European call and put options. This unexpected finding may be a consequence of the anomalous market conditions registered in the spring 2012.</p><p>Finally we observe that the initial stochastic volatility</p><p>does not show significant changes during the period April 2nd, 2012, May 15th, 2012. This is a plausible result when compared to the behaviour of the USA S&amp;P 500 VIX index (SOURCE MKT 500 Currency USD) shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig8">Figure 8</xref>. In fact the USA S&amp;P 500 VIX index monitors the volatility of the USA S&amp;P 500 index and we can see in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig8">Figure 8</xref> that in the period April 2nd, 2012, May 15th, 2012 the USA S&amp;P 500 VIX index remains substantially unchanged.</p></sec><sec id="s7"><title>REFERENCES</title></sec><sec id="s8"><title>Appendices</title>Appendix A<p>In this Appendix we derive formula (31). To this aim we first prove the following formula:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78918"><label>(99)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\247dc2e2-9de9-4d2c-9c44-24e5e7ac19bc.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>that generalizes the already known formula (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref1">1</xref>] Section 1, formula (1.2)):</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78919"><label>(100)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\5a7468ec-02b5-4fbe-bb55-da3823c4bc9d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>We interpret the integrals contained in formulae (99), (100) in the sense of distributions. As mentioned in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref17">17</xref>] the constant b is restricted by the condition</p><p><img src="3-2340054\2369f2da-aa22-4153-811e-156e2a58410f.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\0510848b-98a7-43c3-9427-6ab3ca73481b.jpg" />, in order to avoid the singularities of the functions <img src="3-2340054\d68e155a-d751-4b2e-b364-64ffab007ca8.jpg" /> and</p><p><img src="3-2340054\43bcdcb2-6806-4591-ab36-b639d2850949.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\aa979ca6-6cbb-4e1d-a97a-dedb0a089bb3.jpg" />that occur when the arguments of the Gamma functions are equal to zero or to a negative integer (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref17">17</xref>] for further details).</p><p>We prove (99) arguing as done in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref1">1</xref>]. Let us recall that the functions<img src="3-2340054\609d332e-cb59-4dad-b8b9-851672c4a85c.jpg" />, satisfy the following differential equations:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78920"><label>(101)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\4f3c4cca-143f-4929-a04d-cb41013900de.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78921"><label>(102)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\7f681c9c-2f95-4b16-babb-39c3e12bdf8a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Equations (101), (102) follow immediately from of the Whittaker equation (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref16">16</xref>] p. 505 formula 13.1.31) that defines the Whittaker functions. Multiplying Equations (101), (102) respectively by <img src="3-2340054\6948f0f2-8139-4f65-8e1d-06a7440df0d8.jpg" /> and by <img src="3-2340054\ef57b25b-fdb1-4300-bcf0-0c9a996488d0.jpg" />, subtracting the resulting equations one from the other and integrating with respect to x when <img src="3-2340054\fe08d060-b185-4549-8c40-9a82a77fe730.jpg" /> and<img src="3-2340054\c40ba91e-8948-4515-9df4-885b7b3822e6.jpg" />, we obtain:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78922"><label>(103)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\d40e926a-876d-4984-b8b8-0bef87154d7c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Taking into account that<img src="3-2340054\528acc2e-b153-443d-89c9-b4b5513d7ac6.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\ecce2704-0f46-436b-8868-e29ecda1c4ac.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\64352a7b-fb58-4c56-941a-c37c4d0b019f.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\7491590e-5d8a-43e7-958b-f12724c5b0e4.jpg" />(see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref16">16</xref>] p. 504 formula 13.1.8 and p. 505 formulae 13.1.32, 13.1.34, 13.1.34, and [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref1">1</xref>] for further details), and integrating by part (103) we obtain:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78923"><label>(104)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\4268f4f2-07b6-403a-ad26-aed52b8c544e.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="3-2340054\9d497928-6e18-430b-97a5-44dc13078dc3.jpg" /> means the right-handed limit in zero of the function<img src="3-2340054\30aa67ba-0af3-46b0-8ed0-252488571701.jpg" />. Let<img src="3-2340054\f2ee87a7-5508-4633-9d4d-265639fc0f26.jpg" />, Equation (104) can be rewritten as follows:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78924"><label>(105)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\927c1b6f-6794-452b-b91b-0786557b0388.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Let us recall that the asymptotic behaviour when <img src="3-2340054\71a7760f-894e-46ac-b0f2-b4c5237f616e.jpg" /> and <img src="3-2340054\25b48a74-4b28-48e7-8078-fce7ecf5e08f.jpg" /> of<img src="3-2340054\d52b8b63-05cb-4eb8-8c45-3c7d45ce560a.jpg" />, (see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref1">1</xref>] formula (2.5), [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref16">16</xref>] p. 504 formula 13.1.2, p. 505 formulae 13.1.32, 13.1.34) is:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78925"><label>(106)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\a52a2907-e996-4f60-a24f-a3cf9fd65d01.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78926"><label>(107)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\d990dc30-3dac-4dd2-b702-135e0feb9991.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78927"><label>(108)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\d1f6fba6-524f-4f13-bafe-58d7ad9410d4.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and <img src="3-2340054\3c1da175-374d-4b48-a7eb-a1093d093d52.jpg" /> is the Landau symbol. Evaluating the limit on the right-hand side of (105) as done in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref1">1</xref>] Section 3 and using formulae (106)-(108), we obtain:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78928"><label>(109)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\f55a4c6b-d13a-408f-87f1-676a8965a01c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Formula (109) reduces to formula (99), in fact we have:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78929"><label>(110)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\6e311c86-cb27-445d-bc5d-6d2d624c0116.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Let us prove now formula (31). We use formula (99) and the following integral transform:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78930"><label>(111)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\d02fc139-b9dc-4e4a-aa70-836583950536.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>that maps the function<img src="3-2340054\a3e62e5d-e803-4ef4-b77c-7f1afe2b49f2.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\ac6b42a7-f868-4894-832e-f8aadf8b5d3b.jpg" />, into the function<img src="3-2340054\fee67f3a-37e9-422a-958f-ab329ce76368.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\56001e47-4f0a-41c0-9e63-2bd9fa9cec42.jpg" />. The integral appearing in (111) must be interpreted in the sense of distributions. When <img src="3-2340054\1c587b46-d261-4121-904b-e76e967f3161.jpg" /> the integral transform (111) reduces to the transform studied in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref15">15</xref>]. This last transform is called index Whittaker transform. Note that in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.28679-ref15">15</xref>] it is shown that for</p><p><img src="3-2340054\0014cb18-a04a-412f-9a53-3e5586de8d1f.jpg" /> when b is real and <img src="3-2340054\74747ebf-0873-4be1-af62-03ac9c5b58da.jpg" /> the integral operator appearing in (111) maps</p><p><img src="3-2340054\2da9b2bb-8f3f-4e9a-8fb3-04de802e3662.jpg" />in<img src="3-2340054\d5f97705-fd52-4248-b2bc-decc64fe421d.jpg" />.</p><p>Using (99) it is easy to see that the following equation holds:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78931"><label>(112)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\0d56cd40-88ba-41b0-97cc-fbcde4c521c4.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>when<img src="3-2340054\5d6c87f8-d27f-4b59-99a9-95b753aa6130.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\86758d17-5028-47c3-ab8a-20f4b3172102.jpg" />, belongs to a suitable class of distributions. The characterization of this class of distributions goes beyond the purposes of this paper and is omitted.</p><p>Multiplying Equation (112) by</p><p><img src="3-2340054\c632ffd9-5850-482d-a49d-09509b5fb78a.jpg" /></p><p>and integrating with respect to <img src="3-2340054\a86cd5ec-5cd0-4676-acc9-c693d1d5c18c.jpg" /> when <img src="3-2340054\f46c0393-1d1a-4c47-bb06-ab122d89f53b.jpg" /> we obtain:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78932"><label>(113)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\e1770904-13a6-48c2-819b-62750973712d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Using definition (111) on both sides of Equation (113) we obtain the following identity:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78933"><label>(114)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\49296bea-de93-44a5-973f-442385e22843.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>that holds when<img src="3-2340054\a5d0a514-2396-4fff-aa1e-e85388cf116b.jpg" />, belongs to a suitable class of distributions. Equation (114) reduces to Equation (13) when<img src="3-2340054\7ee98c3d-e71f-4dd7-bc2e-58186a70f18f.jpg" />.</p><p>Note that in order to determine the constant <img src="3-2340054\c4e3b28a-61b5-49fa-84e9-75cae3038fa5.jpg" /> in formula (31) we must use formula (114) when <img src="3-2340054\efc409d9-6eb7-49ce-b6af-95e07d99c7ec.jpg" /> is the Dirac’s delta, that is we must use the following formula:</p><p><img src="3-2340054\9968e77f-0bd6-4500-bf49-53e611687639.jpg" /></p><p>(115)</p>Appendix B<p>In this Appendix we give some details about the derivation of formulae (60), (61) and (62), (63). Let us recall that formula (59) defines<img src="3-2340054\fd0c13c6-fe14-486c-ac7e-c728ddd44cf8.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\970bbb0c-b759-4b35-992e-49de5967cad3.jpg" />, <img src="3-2340054\af387dbb-a20d-472c-8159-36d5b441bef8.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\6e700148-c0f3-4fda-8fea-abdaaad60e95.jpg" />.</p><p>It is easy to see that the function <img src="3-2340054\df9786cd-b0bf-441f-bb11-dcbf98b2a57d.jpg" /> of (57) satisfies the equation:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78934"><label>(116)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\3909b3a4-98bd-48c6-93ca-36bd6fc7b81a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>with the initial condition:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78935"><label>(117)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\93c5a05b-f2f4-4490-8d34-69fec6716c4a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>For<img src="3-2340054\c199262a-00b7-4a79-a359-05145d4c3ec5.jpg" />, let <img src="3-2340054\ed815ab7-6fe8-4ba5-8598-a6df33bcce56.jpg" />,<img src="3-2340054\bb264f1b-d1ef-4c9c-bfb5-c46c88151888.jpg" />.</p><p>Using Equations (116), (117) when <img src="3-2340054\14af50e5-950f-439b-8eff-eaf44735e784.jpg" /> we have that <img src="3-2340054\24faee91-2019-48e0-8ada-d33ed0d6400a.jpg" /> satisfies the equation:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78936"><label>(118)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\f3d81f24-82ae-4c8e-9b3c-8de1845e6640.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>with the initial condition:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78937"><label>(119)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\4e5482b5-b68c-4379-8c49-0e6ae960ef06.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>For <img src="3-2340054\77d108fa-9aaa-4d6f-8c02-667a404ac450.jpg" /> the equations satisfied by <img src="3-2340054\ed5baf93-c35c-475a-8c93-431b26d44db3.jpg" /> are obtained deriving j times with respect to k Equations (116), (117) and setting <img src="3-2340054\87b5453d-15ac-40d9-a4b8-b919a979b8d4.jpg" /> in the resulting equations. We have:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78938"><label>(120)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\d0fdd854-2aa5-40cb-9461-20f862c51ccb.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>with the initial condition:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.28679-formula78939"><label>(121)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="3-2340054\d7ecb291-82c3-4cc6-af40-8fecc9e40a94.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where we define<img src="3-2340054\e296202d-79cc-4519-bfc5-4aaa11051027.jpg" />.</p><p>Integrating with respect to v when <img src="3-2340054\4df484ac-9a9a-46cb-965c-35cada9d7d71.jpg" /> Equations (118), (119) and (120), (121) we obtain respectively Equations (60), (61) and (62), (63).</p></sec></body><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="scirp.28679-ref1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">R. Szmytkowki and S. 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