<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!DOCTYPE article  PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "http://dtd.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en" article-type="research article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">AM</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Applied Mathematics</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2152-7385</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Scientific Research Publishing</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4236/am.2012.36080</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">AM-20080</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Physics&amp;Mathematics</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>
 
 
  A Nonstandard Finite Difference Scheme for SIS Epidemic Model with Delay: Stability and Bifurcation Analysis
 
</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>gus</surname><given-names>Suryanto</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sub>1</sub></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><addr-line>Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail:<email>suryanto@ub.ac.id</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>21</day><month>06</month><year>2012</year></pub-date><volume>03</volume><issue>06</issue><fpage>528</fpage><lpage>534</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>March</day>	<month>22,</month>	<year>2012</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>April</day>	<month>22,</month>	<year>2012</year>	</date><date date-type="accepted"><day>May</day>	<month>5,</month>	<year>2012</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>&#169; Copyright  2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. </copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><license><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>
 
 
  A numerical scheme for a SIS epidemic model with a delay is constructed by applying a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) method. The dynamics of the obtained discrete system is investigated. First we show that the discrete system has equilibria which are exactly the same as those of continuous model. By studying the distribution of the roots of the characteristics equations related to the linearized system, we can provide the stable regions in the appropriate parameter plane. It is shown that the conditions for those equilibria to be asymptotically stable are consistent with the continuous model for any size of numerical time-step. Furthermore, we also establish the existence of Neimark-Sacker bifurcation (also called Hopf bifurcation for map) which is controlled by the time delay. The analytical results are confirmed by some numerical simulations.
 
</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>SIS Epidemic Model with Delay; Stability; Nonstandard Finite Difference Method; Neimark-Sacker (Hopf) Bifurcation</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><body><sec id="s1"><title>1. Introduction</title><p>In this paper we reconsider a SIS epidemic model with maturation delay developed in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref1">1</xref>]:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112504"><label>(1)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\7053ef91-b6d0-4d27-940f-869048f52c2c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Here <img src="5-7400784\395716f1-a5a0-45d5-9382-3be1de9b2db9.jpg" /> is a birth rate function. The size of mature population <img src="5-7400784\b5cfa11b-22a5-4dde-9901-ed2932c9072e.jpg" /> at time <img src="5-7400784\4b53f5ae-a9f1-4b0e-b1b0-b455b2be144f.jpg" /> is divided into susceptible <img src="5-7400784\b6ac3fea-942f-48d4-8ce3-a34dba08a140.jpg" /> and infective <img src="5-7400784\bcda2ac5-4e7a-4886-8e3f-1183e34cbf9b.jpg" /> classes, so that <img src="5-7400784\9fb5a13c-6df5-4715-a6aa-3306dfb3c71d.jpg" />.<img src="5-7400784\4b5e400a-a5cf-4d49-905f-d859938f03eb.jpg" />, <img src="5-7400784\40bfa3a1-e322-4c14-91ed-46ca419de544.jpg" />are the death rates of immature and mature population, respectively. The delay <img src="5-7400784\afccf1ac-8079-4b7d-be0e-953b68b767ec.jpg" /> is considered as the maturation time. The parameter<img src="5-7400784\4a61a571-0cac-47d6-ae76-02e8e1127c7e.jpg" />, <img src="5-7400784\aa802619-be2b-4f2c-bbfc-b797a25bd2b3.jpg" />and <img src="5-7400784\5c3b6bf1-5131-47d5-9959-554092918528.jpg" /> are respectively the constant contact rate, the disease induced death rate constant and the recovery constant rate, respectively.</p><p>In this paper we consider a special class of Equation (1) by assuming that the death rate in each stage prior to the adult stage and the disease induced death are negligible, i.e.<img src="5-7400784\bfa4b2b9-1fbb-46d3-a942-d04b6638a533.jpg" />. Using the Rick function as the birth rate function<img src="5-7400784\f0708eb8-3f96-4ff7-8a94-f9d2157fd0ed.jpg" />, Equation (1) becomes</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112505"><label>(2.a)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\c8f0ffc7-54e6-4536-b90b-49a4b7377a57.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112506"><label>(2.b)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\54be3891-6a30-42e7-9d4e-442146060b7e.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112507"><label>(2.c)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\aec9f4ad-16cb-4ae5-b72f-1221bead038a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Note that Equation (2.c) is decoupled and is called the Nicholson’s blowflies equation which proposed by [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref2">2</xref>]. The dynamics of Equation (2.c) have been studied by many authors; see e.g. [3,4].</p><p>In [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref1">1</xref>], the basic reproduction number for system (2) has been identified as</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112508"><label>. (3)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\74ae65d5-b596-40cf-b36e-598fcb2ca614.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>It has also been shown in [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref1">1</xref>] that <img src="5-7400784\8784d5f7-0ba2-41a3-b58d-ecb154acce46.jpg" /> determines the existence of equilibria as well as their stability properties. They have shown numerically that if the delay <img src="5-7400784\05fbe97c-329f-4f72-a60d-ff981fcd5465.jpg" /> is sufficiently large then the positive solutions of system (2) oscillate about the positive equilibrium. The existence and stability of Hopf bifurcation were established by Wei and Zou [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref5">5</xref>]. In this case, the bifurcation is controlled by parameter p. The bifurcation analysis of system (2) using time delay as the control parameter has been done by Chi, Qu and Wei [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref6">6</xref>].</p><p>For practical purposes, we need to do numerical simulations and therefore we have to transform the continuous model (2) into a discrete system. We expect that the dynamical properties of the discrete system are in accordance with its continuous counterpart (2). Kunnawuttipreechachan [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref7">7</xref>] and the author [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref8">8</xref>] considered the Euler discretization of system (2) and showed that the discrete system has exactly the same equilibria as those of system (2). Using different method of analysis, Kunnawuttipreechachan [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref7">7</xref>] and the author [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref8">8</xref>] derived the sufficient conditions of the numerical step-size for equilibria to be asymptotically stable. It was concluded that the stability conditions of equilibria of the discrete system obtained by the Euler method are consistent with system (2) only if the numerical time-step is relatively small.</p><p>To overcome the dependence of stability condition on the time-step size, we will apply a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme. This method, which is developed by Mickens [9,10], has been applied to various problems; see e.g. [11-16], in which the numerical solutions preserve dynamical properties of the continuous model. We will show that the discrete SIS epidemic model with a delay obtained by the NSFD method maintains the stability properties of equilibria irrespective of the size of numerical time-step. Besides the stability conditions, the existence of bifurcation of the discrete model will also be investigated.</p></sec><sec id="s2"><title>2. Discrete SIS Epidemic Model with Delay</title><p>Using the fact that<img src="5-7400784\8e017d81-04a6-4044-aa4d-fe9e5855b2d4.jpg" />, we will only consider the last two equations of system (2). Using a transformation <img src="5-7400784\0512aaee-3fbd-4b29-918c-0a849581bc8b.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\6e74583a-7474-40b9-ab8a-aaf2b3969c5e.jpg" /> with<img src="5-7400784\d5a8600b-2f8f-442d-8c05-3b91d4475360.jpg" />, Equation (2.b) and (2.c) can be written as</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112509"><label>(4.a)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\29d398e5-2b3a-4300-9537-80cf7909bd1c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112510"><label>(4.b)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\a3ebda09-9cb8-40e2-9603-e7a17769482a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>To discretize system (4) we first consider the step-size of the form <img src="5-7400784\803b3de3-2123-4dbb-b9ba-1a15a1d5946a.jpg" /> where k is a positive integer. Then, applying the forward difference scheme for the derivative and a nonlocal approximation for the right hand sides of system (4) yields a system of difference equations</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112511"><label>(5)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\511c5770-6088-4853-bd8a-f5e535d50c73.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="5-7400784\e3a598ea-ddd5-40f4-8542-56f96226f65a.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\bbf463df-6360-4c4b-a033-ef82779cf509.jpg" /> are numerical approximation of <img src="5-7400784\7d2842f2-464e-4dd4-8667-5c2687e22179.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\231903f7-2b99-43b5-8e1a-95a6574f1a46.jpg" /> <img src="5-7400784\f5c92581-4c27-4a01-8cfb-a68bcecf6e69.jpg" />, respectively. The numerical scheme (5) is a nonstandard because it uses a nonlocal approximation; see Mickens [9,10]. Here we consider initial conditions</p><p>&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;<img src="5-7400784\20151b53-13a8-4a9b-a288-28201dba083e.jpg" />and<img src="5-7400784\77a98473-433b-4ac4-aeb7-fd887b9176cd.jpg" />,(6)</p><p>where<img src="5-7400784\e07a24f2-8260-4933-9cb2-c4bc65d00cf0.jpg" />, for<img src="5-7400784\cc877c81-774e-4299-91cf-fb321dd6035c.jpg" />. It is easy to show that the implicit scheme (5) can be arranged to get its explicit version, i.e.</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112512"><label>(7)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\45c7c608-a57c-4a2f-98c6-4074f6647115.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Direct calculations show that the discrete system (7) has a unique equilibrium: <img src="5-7400784\e39f563c-565c-4a4a-a789-bc9046d2fafa.jpg" />if <img src="5-7400784\869d6305-2b1c-47b1-b81d-0fb89b3dd71e.jpg" /></p><p>and<img src="5-7400784\8855c0b9-da67-47fb-ab38-c37f3729f7de.jpg" />. This equilibrium is called the disease free equilibrium (DFE). On the other hand, if <img src="5-7400784\57164dd3-a0a9-4e5e-964b-b487cf210d31.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\f4c598f1-d211-4904-936b-67f5b3748052.jpg" /> then, in addition to the DFE, there also exists an endemic equilibrium (EE): <img src="5-7400784\072271d3-1fa0-4dcd-a69f-8e76d9ffef1a.jpg" />where</p><p><img src="5-7400784\357e302f-f913-4efc-9f05-cb15bd50d94b.jpg" />and<img src="5-7400784\4c6294f4-77b2-44f9-bf5e-038a9f791e52.jpg" />.</p><p>We observe that those equilibria are exactly the same as those of the continuous system (4); see e.g. [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref7">7</xref>].</p></sec><sec id="s3"><title>3. Stability and Neimark-Sacker Bifurcation Analysis</title><p>It is well known that the stability of equilibrium of a dynamical system depends on the distribution of the zeros of its associated characteristics equation. In this section, the distribution of the roots of the characteristics equation will be analyzed using the following results of Zhang, Zu and Zheng [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref17">17</xref>].</p><p>Theorem 1 (Zhang, Zu and Zheng [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref17">17</xref>]).</p><p>Suppose that <img src="5-7400784\d60ebd4b-748a-45a5-bd6d-a9d94f864345.jpg" /> is a bounded, closed and connected set;</p><p><img src="5-7400784\26ed7323-7bf4-423f-9c34-405da20bbded.jpg" />is continuous in <img src="5-7400784\8bced9e7-1baa-4e22-93e2-860d3b26faf9.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\54b98b7c-62bc-426d-8cc4-bcda802dcab6.jpg" /> is a parameter. Then as <img src="5-7400784\83517dd6-aa75-49db-8635-f4055a5ca023.jpg" /> varies, the sum of the order of the zeros of <img src="5-7400784\4fc10ef9-d740-4d13-bfa9-ba18819882e0.jpg" /> out of the unit circle:</p><p><img src="5-7400784\fe49abb5-abd5-4b6b-a129-763858cd11e0.jpg" /></p><p>can change only if a zero appears on or crosses the unit circle.</p><sec id="s3_1"><title>3.1. Disease Free Equilibrium</title><p>First we perform a linearization of system (7) about the DFE <img src="5-7400784\e5c8fc08-1acc-4836-ae58-a77d02f069f6.jpg" /> by taking <img src="5-7400784\eae8ee1b-bcc8-43cb-976c-c8675bb1c797.jpg" /> and<img src="5-7400784\e22c567b-5bf7-4371-814a-c5797b41ff11.jpg" />. The linearized system around the DFE is given by</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112513"><label>(8)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\0a89f6fd-bbe5-4a7b-aa94-7552f7729229.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>By introducing new variables</p><p><img src="5-7400784\6c921709-c1a9-44d6-852f-e5ca37962662.jpg" />we can rewrite system (8) in the form</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112514"><label>(9)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\9af96a35-53b6-41df-9116-5bca7965937a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="5-7400784\c56809ce-5334-433f-a6c0-2d33f1df3800.jpg" /> and the constant matrix A is defined by</p><p><img src="5-7400784\df9c9cc9-0bb3-4b53-8151-35c1048b617f.jpg" /></p><p>with<img src="5-7400784\9f7a9f9a-1ef7-41c0-aa68-28a494968065.jpg" />, <img src="5-7400784\c813bb7a-4c44-45c6-8974-09539a47c8c8.jpg" />and <img src="5-7400784\0ec5a2d2-5e4d-4cbe-b218-f520d937f69d.jpg" />. The characteristic equation of matrix A is</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112515"><label>(10)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\83ddb22d-9e19-4b8f-b1ba-5de085716ed9.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="5-7400784\a6480ea2-e8a7-481f-9b58-8ae3f218f4cb.jpg" />.</p><p>Lemma 1. If <img src="5-7400784\5c212063-fc27-45bd-b523-e8b815db115a.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\6c4a5d89-8053-477f-af8e-b22aadf7dd5b.jpg" /> then there exists a <img src="5-7400784\0bf7cde7-d7b7-4d84-9d38-4ca97750027e.jpg" /> such that all roots of Equation (10) have modulus less than one for<img src="5-7400784\21923f91-5d6e-468e-8f62-ddbe9c5cb0ad.jpg" />.</p><p>Proof. The trivial root of Equation (10) is</p><p><img src="5-7400784\4c2116bb-06fc-4110-b621-53005fae7cf0.jpg" />.</p><p>It is clear that if <img src="5-7400784\59cc4e5f-1555-4dfc-bfb3-b26a8002c694.jpg" /> then <img src="5-7400784\ac21e314-312c-48a3-b49f-d93a7e32af31.jpg" /> for all<img src="5-7400784\8dd30636-063f-4133-95a3-a2477d787555.jpg" />. Other roots of Equation (10) are determined by</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112516"><label>. (11)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\35366a7a-b098-4555-948a-f8834401fe9d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>when<img src="5-7400784\c65715e1-ccb5-4942-ada7-b57247e931a9.jpg" />, Equation (11) becomes<img src="5-7400784\1838df46-1492-496f-9a94-9391cc4b9365.jpg" />.</p><p>Hence Equation (11), at<img src="5-7400784\46e27a7a-dee2-449b-9276-46190497d569.jpg" />, has a root <img src="5-7400784\a4b2a719-c2a3-4538-8bb7-ad1b25aa03b0.jpg" /> of multiplicity k and a simple root<img src="5-7400784\ac28ca82-c3e0-4a68-8adb-a1a2f3fe3fd4.jpg" />. Consider the root <img src="5-7400784\1a78961f-1f07-48fc-aca1-195eca37dd0b.jpg" /> such that<img src="5-7400784\8fe1edfe-efbb-4c33-a1ef-14c397011a02.jpg" />. This root depends continuously on<img src="5-7400784\16307ec6-92da-48b9-b4aa-e11d0c00355b.jpg" />. Based on Equation (11) we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112517"><label>(12)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\7c271991-71ac-42bb-b625-29fb320b8448.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>whenever<img src="5-7400784\7ae3ba79-08e8-4599-b176-3b7c403821e2.jpg" />. Consequently all roots of Equation (10) lie in <img src="5-7400784\e42018b4-d932-4953-a3d1-dd19dad41c6e.jpg" /> for all sufficiently small<img src="5-7400784\08dcee90-9d04-4844-9e3e-b533ce51e118.jpg" />, and the existence of the maximal <img src="5-7400784\feb2ac61-27df-4b28-b498-6f928518d1ba.jpg" /> follows.</p><p>Lemma 2. If <img src="5-7400784\c381b20b-6b1f-4ba8-ad2a-fac6924c048d.jpg" /> then Equation (11) has no root with modulus one for all<img src="5-7400784\eef09fe4-3bb4-43de-9b06-b7b3f18c4a30.jpg" />.</p><p>Proof. Assume <img src="5-7400784\1912754f-6e2f-4135-9ddf-147aee8a2921.jpg" /> with <img src="5-7400784\c242a92e-9e70-465f-a346-7eaea308651c.jpg" /> be a root of Equation (11) when<img src="5-7400784\1ae0a1f4-615e-4c9b-92d7-1fb4a755b4c0.jpg" />. Substituting this root to Equation (11) yields</p><p><img src="5-7400784\f6808d58-d944-482e-91b0-d62510dbb4a3.jpg" />.</p><p>Separating the real and imaginary parts, we have</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112518"><label>(13)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\c2d2a066-800b-48b8-8b16-6b8465f79c09.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>and therefore we get</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112519"><label>. (14)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\19a536e6-fb5f-452b-84c0-6935e00e24ca.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>If <img src="5-7400784\fe41a46e-802f-4fe3-be42-b4be5fc6ac6d.jpg" /> then<img src="5-7400784\4156142a-a877-4696-ade2-6fad88f6cead.jpg" />, which yields a contradiction. This completes the proof.</p><p>If<img src="5-7400784\16f9d620-c79d-4497-a99f-eedcde6e4f65.jpg" />, then the roots <img src="5-7400784\8c1f6e1c-e777-420d-ab22-9c775c319467.jpg" /> of Equation (11) with modulus one satisfy</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112520"><label>(15)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\f9acf927-c181-44f3-8059-aeeef61358db.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Lemma 3. If <img src="5-7400784\5a2987b6-b51c-4b1f-8378-389cc153bbe2.jpg" /> then the roots of Equation (11) satisfy</p><p><img src="5-7400784\2e1460a1-5ec5-435e-888a-5764ab39a66c.jpg" /></p><p>where <img src="5-7400784\6741c54a-8cbb-4c93-a4e3-370a837207a2.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\91aeefa9-affa-4089-b834-c5f0789629f7.jpg" /> satisfy Equation (15).</p><p>Proof. From Equations (11) and (15) we have</p><p><img src="5-7400784\8e87663f-9ec0-4e0f-ba4b-092765ea1298.jpg" /></p><p>where</p><p><img src="5-7400784\93dff9a7-6680-49fa-bed3-cc5279292281.jpg" /></p><p>and</p><p><img src="5-7400784\34ad6f95-7fce-4796-aac8-163fa8ab64fa.jpg" /></p><p>with</p><p><img src="5-7400784\cda0a16e-de21-4d37-8bd7-6206d307c91e.jpg" /></p><p>It is clear that if <img src="5-7400784\e6338f10-2ea7-4ed7-a18a-c23c263369b3.jpg" /> then <img src="5-7400784\1c613380-5a49-47e3-8ce0-2372ab99e6dc.jpg" /> and therefore</p><p><img src="5-7400784\0407c297-6031-4d1f-b260-235c92c644f0.jpg" />.</p><p>Based on Theorem 1 and Lemmas 1-3, we have the following results on stability and bifurcation of system (5) at the DFE.</p><p>Theorem 2.</p><p>1) If <img src="5-7400784\ac9d1917-df30-4346-9d6a-4ca7ded7bca1.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\c7b7fa86-6dc6-45d7-8ab5-d0ced4f6667e.jpg" /> then the DFE is asymptotically stable for all<img src="5-7400784\759be369-af73-4780-8382-14dfa2cbc2dd.jpg" />.</p><p>2) If <img src="5-7400784\73741c19-dae7-4d1c-a2b1-c10e18503e0c.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\1dc9ad67-778b-48d6-a455-46ca31c23dff.jpg" /> then there exists an infinite sequence of time delay parameter <img src="5-7400784\7d9dcbf2-0dc3-40f4-9f82-098b46236e80.jpg" /> such that the DFE is asymptotically stable when <img src="5-7400784\f5cdc722-a5a2-4900-ad52-8a3f4fcf9b6c.jpg" /> and unstable when<img src="5-7400784\c8e44274-5fb0-4a6c-9cbc-6d067115f9c7.jpg" />. Map (7) has a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation at the DFE when<img src="5-7400784\d2e18082-5040-44a5-b2a4-d800a5cb8f1c.jpg" />, <img src="5-7400784\11002ef1-67b0-48ce-a883-808299053189.jpg" />where <img src="5-7400784\d557803d-9045-43b9-9e33-20e82357b818.jpg" /> satisfy Equation (15).</p><p>Proof.</p><p>1) Let <img src="5-7400784\ec80aabc-3a5b-4b04-9ce1-d232525da0e9.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\ae9d18de-608e-4de4-8b06-348ccaeb627a.jpg" /> then it is known from Lemmas 1 and 2 that the characteristic Equation (10) has no root with modulus one for all<img src="5-7400784\87d61025-480a-4231-9f6a-a6d5ccab6265.jpg" />. Applying Theorem 1, all roots of Equation (10) have modulus less than one for all<img src="5-7400784\85ae0ab7-d8e3-45a8-9eca-f20c9d82652a.jpg" />. Thus, conclusion (a) follows.</p><p>2) Let <img src="5-7400784\f12384ba-8048-46bb-8874-e6bc0356295c.jpg" /> and<img src="5-7400784\ac87ed77-0b52-44be-b0d9-cf0c0da80d19.jpg" />. It is known from Lemma 1 that if <img src="5-7400784\f8dc71e4-b50f-4bd2-8a7b-ce152b9baa07.jpg" /> then one of roots of characteristics Equation (10) has modulus less than one for all<img src="5-7400784\e3e21bc7-2a9f-4596-bf60-ec5729a31b74.jpg" />. Other roots of Equation (10) satisfy Equation (11). From Lemmas 1 and 3 we know that all roots of Equation (11) have modulus less than one when<img src="5-7400784\ff73bc2c-9a21-4371-a0fe-1b49693bbd68.jpg" />, and Equation (11) has at least a couple of roots with modulus greater than one when<img src="5-7400784\56bf63e4-27e1-414b-b121-333647ea5eb3.jpg" />. Hence conclusion (b) follows.</p></sec><sec id="s3_2"><title>3.2. Endemic Equilibrium</title><p>The linearization of system (7) around the EE <img src="5-7400784\e2300d6e-2257-437a-8ad4-c4b9f5c21ae1.jpg" /> is performed by substituting <img src="5-7400784\f1d082ea-6b70-42b8-8c20-9e3ec7f13fa9.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\578f57c0-ba65-4770-a357-2bb82ae4c4ad.jpg" /> into system (7) to get</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112521"><label>(16)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\375b2aee-b9b2-4bfb-97b9-eec146ba3c51.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where</p><p><img src="5-7400784\e445f439-641d-46b5-9bb0-312e3fb6270e.jpg" />,</p><p><img src="5-7400784\5b2c81c6-c6e3-4085-81df-1a370bfe2c58.jpg" />,</p><p><img src="5-7400784\3bd03c25-13a4-4aa5-a467-95c4108df387.jpg" />,</p><p><img src="5-7400784\0d590dec-d481-43f9-a6ae-98c996702594.jpg" /></p><p>and</p><p><img src="5-7400784\e5c63147-b572-4f9d-afb5-11d75f749df7.jpg" />.</p><p>Using the same transformation as in the DFE, i.e.<img src="5-7400784\23b44554-e448-487e-8121-dfb1872b784c.jpg" />, system (16) can be written as</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112522"><label>(17)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\06920925-315a-4bba-bcf8-31f73a575c9d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where<img src="5-7400784\d9186832-45b8-4ff4-890e-6e5126da9098.jpg" />. The constant matrix B in Equation (17) is</p><p><img src="5-7400784\fa4b3de0-6a05-48ea-8bf0-4a5ee5ba2e7c.jpg" />.</p><p>It is easy to show that the characteristic equation of matrix B is</p><disp-formula id="scirp.20080-formula112523"><label>(18)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="5-7400784\fee3c66e-146d-48a3-8912-6ce382cae28d.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="5-7400784\cdaf4f99-b0d9-490c-950f-b7152f93b70e.jpg" /> Clearly this characteristic equation has a trivial root</p><p><img src="5-7400784\05b44a88-daac-437e-a7f9-ef81ba81969d.jpg" /></p><p>and other roots are determined by<img src="5-7400784\61940741-07fa-440e-817a-796252ec7069.jpg" />. Direct calculations show that if <img src="5-7400784\9c20bcf5-9ddf-4deb-a9c4-0483c9de2dda.jpg" /> then <img src="5-7400784\10c3e6f6-6496-41ec-a76c-231ba2e45cf7.jpg" /> for all<img src="5-7400784\95e94cff-c9d3-41aa-b3d3-0a17df705378.jpg" />. Since <img src="5-7400784\ab6935ce-a843-4d53-9ca4-3a2d0178225a.jpg" /> and<img src="5-7400784\1c7d1b04-dbc5-48f6-a676-2de9c8925a38.jpg" />, <img src="5-7400784\378fdb56-787c-46fa-859b-c33e74288e06.jpg" />is exactly the same as in Equation (11) and therefore the distribution of its roots is exactly the same as described by Lemmas 1-3. Hence we directly have the following results.</p><p>Lemma 4. If <img src="5-7400784\365787a0-4f2c-443a-a62a-15ec5c42dcb8.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\a465ced9-a791-4ca6-962a-46061827ced9.jpg" /> then there exists a <img src="5-7400784\0ee40385-f6b3-49eb-806f-c61ea2698d53.jpg" /> such that all roots of Equation (18) have modulus less than one for<img src="5-7400784\a5997c3d-8242-4b9d-9a0b-81dc882784c4.jpg" />.</p><p>Lemma 5. If <img src="5-7400784\4ab94da3-29d9-4893-89ca-2cfede98b275.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\cd969a61-2869-4fab-aa65-34e0755f410e.jpg" /> then Equation (18) has no root with modulus one for all<img src="5-7400784\b03d51e7-666a-4c35-80d3-59dc9f12267d.jpg" />.</p><p>Lemma 6. If <img src="5-7400784\23eb8c1d-a10b-49e2-a8f8-cb80ce8bf76e.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\940c4ecc-17d3-4009-957c-a4951d1f6a59.jpg" /> then the modulus of trivial root of Equation (18), i.e.<img src="5-7400784\c5ac903a-5d40-4117-b266-9f33a1b605bf.jpg" />, is less than one for all <img src="5-7400784\6de043e6-61f1-42f0-86fb-b75f36efd50b.jpg" /> and other roots satisfy</p><p><img src="5-7400784\96da0aa1-278a-4498-ad2b-2ac5bdc2b561.jpg" /></p><p>where <img src="5-7400784\9bb7b828-ff24-45ae-a608-4dc71c5208a7.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\e7d0877b-7351-45ff-83d9-5ecc9e19a3a3.jpg" /> satisfy Equation (15).</p><p>Theorem 3.</p><p>1) If <img src="5-7400784\a69d3610-9cf0-422a-bdc6-7c4c47bc2291.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\cba2ad49-b9b0-4167-b531-beef5284af5b.jpg" /> then the EE is asymptotically stable for all<img src="5-7400784\575a147c-f694-4fe4-be0a-4cce995d79d9.jpg" />.</p><p>2) If <img src="5-7400784\2e89cb6e-3d90-4c7c-9532-8c45016c2878.jpg" /> and <img src="5-7400784\2571f19c-a677-4464-8d9b-6554590c2472.jpg" /> then there exists an infinite sequence of time delay parameter <img src="5-7400784\c972411f-50bb-437c-8677-1330a5d3cb66.jpg" /> such that the EE is asymptotically stable when <img src="5-7400784\100d2f56-b477-44cc-8ad9-c3651ac9b474.jpg" /> and unstable when<img src="5-7400784\60c88077-98e8-49a6-b222-f069f52977a9.jpg" />. System (7) has a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation at the EE when<img src="5-7400784\ed5f36d9-ab24-4873-b219-d6cd551ec7fe.jpg" />, <img src="5-7400784\d4a78ca8-c758-471c-a852-731528caa274.jpg" />where <img src="5-7400784\317176f0-0065-46ae-b1b5-82938bd99a9d.jpg" /> satisfy Equation (15).</p><p>Theorems 2.1 and 3.1 give the sufficient conditions for DFE and EE to be asymptotically stable, respectively. Unlike the discrete system obtained by the Euler method where the stability conditions for equilibria depend on the size of time-step h, the proposed discrete system (7) has stability conditions which are consistent with the stability conditions for equilibria of continuous system (4) for any size of time step h; see [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref7">7</xref>] for the stability properties of the continuous system. In addition, Theorems 2.2 and 3.2 show the existence of bifurcation controlled by the time delay<img src="5-7400784\c172367e-fd3b-4891-ba01-6023f2e4c2fa.jpg" />.</p></sec></sec><sec id="s4"><title>4. Numerical Simulations</title><p>To confirm our previous theoretical analysis, in this section we present some numerical simulations using nonstandard finite difference scheme (7) with time – step h = 0.1 (or k = 10). For the simulations we adopt parameters used by [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.20080-ref7">7</xref>], i.e.<img src="5-7400784\c74afef0-39fc-4702-a4f2-0ffef95e1c5a.jpg" />, <img src="5-7400784\7dbca9ba-5ebf-4a87-a402-cbeb361f149a.jpg" />and<img src="5-7400784\2927d488-828b-43db-8d33-9de71ddd62b0.jpg" />. For the simulations of DFE and EE scenarios we use <img src="5-7400784\f2d8d4b6-a310-4887-aced-b6b68389c2be.jpg" /> and<img src="5-7400784\6fd95a92-591d-4245-9ba6-a5a26d79742c.jpg" />, respectively.</p><sec id="s4_1"><title>4.1. Disease Free Equilibrium (R<sub>0</sub> &lt; 1)</title><p>For simulations of the DFE scenario we use a constant contact rate <img src="5-7400784\6ea44090-3ddd-4c4f-98cb-feccbc1a7352.jpg" /> and vary the value of p. Using this constant contact rate we have that<img src="5-7400784\c6735f5e-d3b2-44d0-9ced-d1942806fcda.jpg" />. First we choose <img src="5-7400784\f942c1da-6a9b-4e30-a48f-093e1d562ba9.jpg" /> and therefore the conditions for the DFE to be stable are satisfied, i.e.<img src="5-7400784\56d9d743-3b33-4be7-b58d-c836a2afe390.jpg" />. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref> shows the numerical solutions using <img src="5-7400784\e14f47f7-fc87-4854-842d-fca8bcb0c9b3.jpg" /> and<img src="5-7400784\0eccf23c-814a-4a6c-a119-579fabdb5e26.jpg" />. It is indicated that the numerical solutions are convergent to the DFE (0.0, 0.9523) for any<img src="5-7400784\f229af21-492e-44a2-81d0-6cd04ffe2f96.jpg" />. On the other hand, if we take <img src="5-7400784\2add5994-3646-4fed-8bc5-a2867536f76d.jpg" /> (i.e.,<img src="5-7400784\cdfeb2ce-2867-4590-b391-893e86855f6b.jpg" />) and other parameters are the same as used in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref> then according to the previous analysis the DFE is unstable and the system undergoes a periodic solution of bifurcation. In this case the bifurcation point is<img src="5-7400784\3e246e1b-4429-4dd1-83ae-cce269ac85a8.jpg" />. Such behavior is shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Figure 2</xref>. Indeed, if <img src="5-7400784\07477a1a-6148-4c56-a54b-1846224849e1.jpg" /> then the numerical solution converges to the DFE (0.0, 1.3064). On the contrary, the numerical solution, especially N(t), changes its stability from asymptotic stable to periodic behavior when<img src="5-7400784\5aa6642c-b2e5-4837-ba33-5f6af78cc41a.jpg" />.</p></sec><sec id="s4_2"><title>4.2. Endemic Equilibrium (R<sub>0</sub> &gt; 1)</title><p>For the EE scenario we use <img src="5-7400784\4bbec956-41af-4b4d-9154-93515132e923.jpg" /> such that R<sub>0</sub> = 2.3810 &gt; 1. Figures 3(a) and (b) show the numerical solutions for <img src="5-7400784\91c998f9-63f4-46b7-b067-e523d9b86537.jpg" /> <img src="5-7400784\7a8204d7-8882-4974-8f06-554200b7f92f.jpg" /> (i.e<img src="5-7400784\932dd922-d7ec-41af-ac0c-919e577ac28a.jpg" />), using <img src="5-7400784\a2846482-689e-4cbe-8499-6be3ecabb406.jpg" /> and<img src="5-7400784\dfbd5813-d399-4880-9fc0-f6bc512c237a.jpg" />, respectively. These results indicate that if <img src="5-7400784\fd8a8bfa-3264-490e-810f-81eb119a789e.jpg" /> then the EE (0.5524, 0.9523) is asymptotically stable irrespective of<img src="5-7400784\f7151f76-f0cb-4d63-aec0-21ad3ef4b45d.jpg" />.</p><p>Next we take the same parameters as used in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">Figure 3</xref> but with<img src="5-7400784\f8f891dd-2b55-4cf2-835b-b34688161224.jpg" />, i.e.<img src="5-7400784\e096d259-3006-4155-ac6f-58937c67c912.jpg" />. Theorem 3 predicts that a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation will occur. From Equation (15) we find that the critical delay (bifurcation point) is</p><p><img src="5-7400784\befc90da-cdec-4dbf-9f57-dfc4d56e4282.jpg" />. This prediction is confirmed by our numerical solutions; see <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig4">Figure 4</xref>. It is clearly seen that if we change the time delay from <img src="5-7400784\58886227-c8c9-4281-8086-387a73a6781f.jpg" /> to τ = 1.70 &gt;<img src="5-7400784\74a06429-579d-4470-b55c-d35261d032a8.jpg" />, then the behavior of numerical solutions changes from a solution converging to the EE (0.7577, 1.3064) to a solution which oscillates periodically about the EE.</p><p>Finally we compare the numerical solutions obtained by Euler method with those obtained by our NSFD method. We found that Euler method with a relatively big numerical time-step (h) may produce unrealistic negative and unbounded solutions. However, using the same or even bigger numerical time-step, NSFD method always gives positive and bounded solution. Depending on the parameters used in the simulations, the solution will be periodic or convergent to a correct equilibrium point. For example, in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig5">Figure 5</xref> we plot the results of Euler method and NSFD method for the EE scenario using h = 0.25. It is seen from <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig5">Figure 5</xref>(a) that the</p><p>number of infectives tends to negative infinity (notice that the graph is shown in logarithmic scaled). Using the same value of h the solution of NSFD method oscillates about the EE; see <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig5">Figure 5</xref>(b).</p></sec></sec><sec id="s5"><title>5. Conclusion</title><p>In this paper we have introduced a discrete delayed SIS epidemic model obtained by a nonstandard finite difference method. Unlike the Euler method, the proposed scheme reproduces exactly the same equilibria as well as their stability conditions as those of continuous model, i.e. if <img src="5-7400784\cf986a7e-9d63-469a-a0df-1fb580f87165.jpg" /> then the delay does not affect the stability of the equilibria. However, in the case of<img src="5-7400784\3ea19f44-7d6b-4484-b0f8-3768454867c1.jpg" />, the stability of equilibria changes when the delay passes a critical value. Here the discrete SIS model with a delay has periodic solutions when the stability is lost. In other words, a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation occurs. It is also shown that our numerical simulations have confirmed our analytical findings.</p></sec><sec id="s6"><title>6. Acknowledgements</title><p>This research is supported by Direktorat Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat, Direktorat Jenderal Pendidikan Tinggi Indonesia (Penelitian Unggulan Perguruan Tinggi—Fundamental) via DIPA Brawijaya University No. 0636/023-04.2.16/15/2012. 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