<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!DOCTYPE article  PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "http://dtd.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en" article-type="research article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">TEL</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Theoretical Economics Letters</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2162-2078</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Scientific Research Publishing</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4236/tel.2012.22031</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">TEL-19292</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Business&amp;Economics</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>
 
 
  The Role of Money: Credible Asset or Numeraire?
 
</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>asayuki</surname><given-names>Otaki</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sub>1</sub></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><addr-line>Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail:<email>ohtaki@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>23</day><month>05</month><year>2012</year></pub-date><volume>02</volume><issue>02</issue><fpage>180</fpage><lpage>182</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>December</day>	<month>29,</month>	<year>2011</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>January</day>	<month>28,</month>	<year>2012</year>	</date><date date-type="accepted"><day>February</day>	<month>6,</month>	<year>2012</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>&#169; Copyright  2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. </copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><license><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>
 
 
  It is well known that money is neutral if 1) people hold the extraneous belief that it is an only numeraire and does not possess intrinstic value, and 2) new money is injected into an economy as its own interest in the OLG model under perfect information (Lucas [1] Theorem (2)). We find that whenever 1) is not satisfied and money is rationally held to have substance value, money becomes non-neutral even if we use the same model as Lucas [1].
 
</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Neutrality of Money; Credibility of Money; Multiplicity of Rational Expectation Equilibrium</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><body><sec id="s1"><title>1. Introduction</title><p>This article shows that the multiplicity of rational beliefs concerning the value of money decides whether money is neutral under perfect information structure in the twoperiod OLG model. The result is kept intact even if new money injected into the economy is subject to the model of Lucas [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.19292-ref1">1</xref>]. This result contrasts with Otani [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.19292-ref2">2</xref>] and Otaki [3-5].</p><p>Even if the nominal rate of interest on money increases (i.e., money supply increases), people can consistently believe that the purchasing power of money (the inverse of the next period price level) is retained.1 Then the real interest rate becomes higher, and thereby matching the supply, and the demand for money increases.</p><p>From assumptions concerning the utility function, this situation also implies the reduction of current consumption and leisure. Thus, the monetary expansion increases current total output, and hence, money becomes nonneutral.</p><p>We must note that the attained equilibrium is stationary in the sense that values of real endogenous variables such as current/future consumption and leisure are entirely time-independent. This assertion holds, since once the real interest rate is heightened by an increase of the nominal interest rate (increment of nominal money supply per capita), one may expect that the change in the inflation rate will equal that of the nominal interest rate; the heightend real interest rate is kept intact, and thus, the equilibrium becomes self-enforcing and stationary.</p><p>The rest of paper is organaized as follows. In Section 2, we construct the same model as Lucas [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.19292-ref1">1</xref>], except for the formation of rational expectation concerning the value of money, and proves the non-neutrality of money. A welfare economics implication is also analyzed. Section 3 contains brief concluding remarks.</p></sec><sec id="s2"><title>2. The Model</title><sec id="s2_1"><title>2.1. The Structure of the Model</title><p>We use essentially the same model as Lucas [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.19292-ref1">1</xref>], excluding uncertainty. In every period a unit individual is born and lives two periods. Each individual has an indentical utility function<img src="11-1500098\19115c35-2725-403d-a12c-95c433583496.jpg" />:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22747"><label>(1)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\b05ca457-2fb6-4272-8814-a3062697c8d6.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="11-1500098\fa79652b-7626-4de8-a07f-e15fa67e0fc6.jpg" /> and <img src="11-1500098\273dfc2d-f431-42b5-997a-b533743683a5.jpg" /> are the current and future consumption level, and <img src="11-1500098\6d93ad1f-f0a2-4e61-8342-ef538e093cd5.jpg" /> denotes the hours worked per individual.</p><p>Furthermore, <img src="11-1500098\fda2cd2b-6060-4390-8f09-0753307ea1e9.jpg" />and <img src="11-1500098\9de430c8-aa59-4425-9c99-778355ab3d9d.jpg" /> satisfy the following properties:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22748"><label>(2)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\814dbabd-75e3-47d0-a115-0032aeea874c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22749"><label>(3)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\d26e9774-0d79-4268-a7b9-1adadbddd39e.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22750"><label>(4)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\76c0b2ce-ece8-4fa7-81cf-e73de717d97c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22751"><label>(5)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\88949cf6-3f18-4d9f-89f6-44bf03d0528a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula></sec><sec id="s2_2"><title>2.2. The Maximization Problem of Representative Individual</title><p>Each individual maximizes his/her lifetime utility <img src="11-1500098\fa0e50b6-6565-4b6c-a89e-d4619ad05ab3.jpg" /> subject to the following budget constraint:</p><p><img src="11-1500098\625c50b7-b222-489b-a0ac-a54a263b61b6.jpg" /></p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22752"><label>(6)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\d2f068b5-00ff-450b-9fda-7a3d31bf7989.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22753"><label>(7)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\faf2d706-69cf-4011-8756-c1d0b4bbb0de.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>where <img src="11-1500098\47fd14ca-11d3-4b86-bf82-a7173bde9fd6.jpg" /> denotes the increment of money supply per capita. <img src="11-1500098\beade154-d0c0-4316-9e9b-772a5615ad17.jpg" />is the inverse of the real interest rate.</p><p>The Kuhn-Tucker condition implies that the optimal decision <img src="11-1500098\7a6efd76-0c14-44f8-9a61-8c563072da46.jpg" /> satisfies</p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22754"><label>(8)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\dba49403-a0b2-4b01-9f6b-eaee3e10bb4a.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22755"><label>, (9)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\08210a99-c7e8-4397-ae9c-be6471b76aa4.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22756"><label>(10)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\c0f69260-945e-4b5a-93af-5891538e98fc.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula></sec><sec id="s2_3"><title>2.3. Market Equilibrium</title><p>There are two markets in the above model: the money market and good market. By Walras’ law, we can neglect the equilibrium condition for the good market. The money market equilibrium condition is</p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22757"><label>(11)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\209ce7ca-d8cf-41ef-84d0-40a766632239.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Instead of the quatity-theoretic equilibrium price function imposed by Lucas [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.19292-ref1">1</xref>], let us assume that money is credible in the sense of Otaki [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.19292-ref5">5</xref>]—That is, the rational expectation concerning the current purchasing power of money <img src="11-1500098\5c501a03-8862-4a5f-add9-363282e5b559.jpg" /> is not purturbed by an increse of<img src="11-1500098\9761846b-3815-4833-998c-40da689a8d83.jpg" />:</p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22758"><label>(12)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\61d4088c-95e9-40b6-9261-82d157a45217.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>The general equilibrium of markets is attained by five equations: (8), (9), (10), (11), and (12). Endogenous variables are<img src="11-1500098\139dd760-4cc4-428e-bcc9-126b4a07bd33.jpg" />.</p><p>The partial equilibrium of labor <img src="11-1500098\b87d0616-b9b9-439f-ac16-d7381dfe4888.jpg" /> and the younggeneration’s consumption <img src="11-1500098\9fa59bca-e5df-4955-9569-e32eed86b34b.jpg" /> is illustrated by <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref>. The downward sloping curve <img src="11-1500098\41ad3491-6c0f-46d5-8852-0d610576d8e0.jpg" /> is the locus of Equation (8), which is easily derived from Assumption (3).</p><p>The upward sloping curve <img src="11-1500098\56e567e6-d2b1-4b4e-9924-fe5fc8da97af.jpg" /> is the locus of Equation (10), which is combined with Equation (9). The procedure is as follows: Substituting Equation (9) into (10), we obtain</p><p><img src="11-1500098\a4d4944e-f47d-4dea-b59e-4ed1b5e23fe5.jpg" /></p><p>Differentiating both sides of the above equation,</p><p><img src="11-1500098\1dea65f7-a877-43d6-8cb9-8ed1226612e0.jpg" /></p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22759"><label>(13)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\e2917dc2-92e6-4f61-b398-9c4997f54bbd.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22760"><label>(14)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\81586a0a-9f53-4a25-be8f-59fcccea5f1f.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>holds. Hence Curve <img src="11-1500098\7799a815-1ace-43dc-abbf-b15b4da39fcb.jpg" /> is upward sloping for any fixed<img src="11-1500098\016ce97c-1aab-42d9-bea5-b5be44cccde6.jpg" />. When the money market equibrates, the equilibrium consumption of younger generation and output is determined at the intersection of Curves <img src="11-1500098\e8ad52a4-94c6-4878-b731-15aab25cae03.jpg" /> and <img src="11-1500098\d51c8b7b-2c27-47d8-8e60-2a1aa0b49f59.jpg" /> (Point<img src="11-1500098\a93af231-8c33-4fa0-9bb1-a05b3e67f3a5.jpg" />).</p><p>Whenever money is credible, it is facile to depict the property of money market equilibrium. From Equations (11) and (12), we obtain</p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22761"><label>(15)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\9bcf598b-bfed-4a18-b647-48175d3ea46c.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Since <img src="11-1500098\9842a407-6331-462d-bb46-2967583af4f7.jpg" /> is an increasing function of <img src="11-1500098\5b2b8e18-830c-485c-b4bf-51a54c6c85ac.jpg" /> from Assumption (4), Equations (14) and (15) imply that Curve <img src="11-1500098\6fd900ec-2b42-40ce-80cd-812099cf132b.jpg" /> shifts toward the south-east, like Curve<img src="11-1500098\afbbb28d-f873-4776-b995-95619e2e0aac.jpg" />, by an increase of<img src="11-1500098\c42c6658-9b3e-4687-b15e-c7dfc1dcaf65.jpg" />. Thus, the economy moves from Point <img src="11-1500098\6f235461-18f9-4f3e-96e0-24dd85a3e530.jpg" /> to<img src="11-1500098\6e45e083-64e7-44b1-939c-32a36dea36a4.jpg" />.</p><p>Accordingly, as long as money is credible, a monetary</p><p>expansion increases the output <img src="11-1500098\6597f13f-8194-4aca-ab44-dbdc307936e2.jpg" /> and future consumption<img src="11-1500098\67b445df-58af-4450-9268-af47ceeb5ba0.jpg" />, and decreses the younger-generation’s consumption<img src="11-1500098\ffd8ee7c-cfaa-4a54-8d69-942245a9b044.jpg" />. To sum up:</p><p>Theorem 1. If money is a credible asset, it becomes non-neutral to the real economy. An accelaration of monetary growth hightens the real interest of money, and hence, stimulates future consumption and output/labor supply, economizes current consumption.</p><p>Next we shall show that the equilibrium above depicted is a stationary rational expectation equilibrium. Suppose that the economy is located at Point <img src="11-1500098\cd2f7f17-029d-4fd4-98a4-b37b35cd23cc.jpg" /> by an increase of<img src="11-1500098\09a3a4dc-5d50-49cb-ab5c-4bfadca49a9a.jpg" />, and individuals believe that the higher equilibrium real interest rate <img src="11-1500098\ea62d55a-b084-4b30-ada1-c93ac90510b0.jpg" /> prevails thereafter.</p><p>Then by the definition of <img src="11-1500098\dac4b0f1-ef3f-48ca-80a3-672d646a22c8.jpg" /> (Equation (7)),</p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22762"><label>(16)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\d7401fc3-3481-42d7-af48-6b1dbcb4d0f9.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>holds. That is, individuals consider that the change in the equilibrium inflation rate is equal the acceleration rate of monetary growth because there is no substantial change in the economic environment after period<img src="11-1500098\78ebce2a-5f1e-4128-bac5-2e8ed4af5817.jpg" />. Since <img src="11-1500098\57c02fe0-ec12-489a-a49c-47312f54bf59.jpg" /> and<img src="11-1500098\d9ae5837-38be-497c-958a-769265157b59.jpg" />,</p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22763"><label>(17)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\191d099c-697e-4d88-9635-f95b1619a087.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>also holds. Combining Equation (17) with (16), we finally obtain</p><disp-formula id="scirp.19292-formula22764"><label>(18)</label><graphic position="anchor" xlink:href="11-1500098\c1283c56-2424-4d11-9ba2-101075a05d32.jpg"  xlink:type="simple"/></disp-formula><p>Thus, the equilibrium consumption of an old individual <img src="11-1500098\16f02cf3-a665-4233-8a63-c082e169311c.jpg" /> is time-independent.</p><p>It is clear from Equations (8) and (14) that the rest of the two endogenous variables <img src="11-1500098\a11cefd1-0d91-43ce-82f4-3563145bd19a.jpg" /> are also timeindependent. Consequently, the equilibrium illustrated by Point <img src="11-1500098\f5a783fc-5705-4842-a9f1-983f62851155.jpg" /> is stationary in the sense that every equilibrium value of endgenous variables is time-independent. One can thus affirm Theorem 2. The rational expectation equilibrium defined by Equations (8)-(10), (12), and (16) is stationary (i.e., time-independent). Hence the heightned real interest rate caused by an increase of the nominal interest on money <img src="11-1500098\8919c713-4902-4966-981c-ca93a5234a66.jpg" /> permanently affects the real variables.</p></sec><sec id="s2_4"><title>2.4. A Welfare Implication of the Model</title><p>By Theorem 1, a monetary expansion (an increase in<img src="11-1500098\800f5598-b683-45f4-8522-914faef9c6bf.jpg" />) stimulates the equilibrium real GDP <img src="11-1500098\67ee97e7-7fbc-4314-9c4f-8c3fe1ae6310.jpg" /> through the rise of the real rate of interest. We here consider its welfare economics implication. Let the Lagrangean of individual decision <img src="11-1500098\07a11cc9-41a2-4367-81cf-9c2b568b9e93.jpg" /> that is evaluated at the equilibrium value.</p><p>Then, using the envelop theorem, we obtain</p><p><img src="11-1500098\db45f6e9-48a8-4ef9-9c7a-103113dfeeb3.jpg" /></p><p>where <img src="11-1500098\8ea3aa65-2df4-46aa-bdd7-2cfcb4b2fa1a.jpg" /> is the Lagrangean multiplier. Accordingly, a monetary expansion improves the economic welfare since it makes future goods cheaper.</p></sec></sec><sec id="s3"><title>3. Concluding Remarks</title><p>This paper shows that money is non-neutral as long as it is credible even if we obey the money-supply rule proposed by Lucas [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="scirp.19292-ref1">1</xref>]. A monetary expansion (an accelaration of the money growth rate) surely hightens the real rate of interest of money whenever people believe that money is credible. The effect of intertempral substitution leads them to work more to prepare for more future consumption, and thus, the aggregate products increases. It also implies that the economic welfare is improved by a monetary expansion.</p></sec><sec id="s4"><title>REFERENCES</title></sec><sec id="s5"><title>NOTES</title></sec></body><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="scirp.19292-ref1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">R. E. Lucas Jr., “Expecations and the Neutrality of Money,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1972, pp. 103-124. doi:10.1016/0022-0531(72)90142-1</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.19292-ref2"><label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">K. Otani, “Rational Expectations and Non-Nuetrality of Money,” Weltwirschaftliches, Vol. 121, 1985, pp. 207- 216. </mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.19292-ref3"><label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">M. Otaki, “The Dynamically Extended Keynesian Cross and the Welfare-Improving Fiscal Policy,” Economics Letters, Vol. 96, No. 1, 2007, pp. 23-29.  
doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2006.12.005</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.19292-ref4"><label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">M. Otaki, “A Welfare Economic Foundation for the Full-Employment Policy,” Economics Letters, Vol. 102, No. 1, 2009, pp. 1-3. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2008.08.003</mixed-citation></ref><ref id="scirp.19292-ref5"><label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">M. Otaki, “A Pure Theory of Aggregate Price Determination,” Theoretical Economics Letters, Vol. 1, No. 3, 2011, pp. 122-128. doi:10.4236/tel.2011.13026</mixed-citation></ref></ref-list></back></article>