Human migration is increasingly driven by environmental changes, particularly in vulnerable regions. Environmental changes are playing an increasingly important role in shaping human migration, particularly in regions highly sensitive to climate variability. Variability in rainfall, rising temperatures, and land degradation are undermining livelihoods, especially in rain-fed farming communities [1][2]. As a result, people are moving in search of better living conditions, adding environmental stressors to the traditional economic, social, and political drivers of migration [3][4]. Globally, climate-related displacement has been observed in regions including South Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, highlighting the widespread implications of environmental stress on human mobility [5].

The Sahel region of Africa exemplifies this crisis, where desertification, prolonged droughts, and declining agricultural productivity drive population movements and reshape rural landscapes [6]. Evidence from countries such as Zambia and Ethiopia shows that migration often serves as a coping mechanism in response to deteriorating environmental conditions and failing agricultural systems [7][8]. In Nigeria, the north-eastern states represent an acute manifestation of these dynamics. Historically reliant on fertile lands and robust agriculture, the region now faces a convergence of environmental stressors and socio-political pressures. Climate extremes are compounded by insecurity from insurgency and armed conflict, collectively disrupting agriculture and displacing millions [9][10].

These migration patterns reshape demographic structures, strain urban infrastructures, and drive unsustainable land use changes [11]. As of 2023, north-eastern Nigeria hosts over 2.3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), predominantly women and children [12]. Despite these challenges, research on the interplay between environmental change, insecurity, and migration in Nigeria remains limited, particularly in the northeast.

Recognition of climate change as a migration driver is growing, yet adaptive policies and effective interventions lag. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [13] warns that climate-related migration may become a defining human security challenge of the 21st century, particularly in fragile states. As land resources dwindle and migration intensifies, pressures on food security, social cohesion, and ecosystem services are likely to increase [14]-[16].

This study addresses a critical knowledge gap by analyzing rainfall, temperature, and socio-economic factors behind migration trends in north-eastern Nigeria, integrating climatic data with household survey insights and migration statistics. The research aims to identify the drivers of mobility and propose evidence-based policy interventions focused on land use planning, climate adaptation, and humanitarian response. Ultimately, the study seeks to support the development of more resilient communities in one of Nigeria’s most vulnerable regions.

1)Rainfall,MaximumandMinimumTemperatureTrends

The results indicate a general decline in rainfall over the study period, with a Sen’s slope value of −0.0442, signifying a low but consistent decrease (Figure 10). This finding aligns with the regional patterns identified by [26]-[28], who reported spatial variability in rainfall, with decreasing trends in the southern and northern zones of Gombe State and an increasing trend in the central region. In Adamawa State, [29] similarly observed a general reduction in rainfall across most of the territory. However, [30][31] presented contrasting evidence of increasing rainfall trends in parts of Borno and Adamawa States from 1970 to 2015, suggesting potential decadal variability and spatial heterogeneity across the sub-region.

Figure 10. Rainfall (1981 to 2021).

The mean annual maximum temperature showed a Sen’s slope value of +0.046, indicating a low but consistent increase over the 40 years (Figure 11). This observation is supported by the findings of [26][28][32], all of whom reported statistically significant increases in maximum temperature in Gombe State. Similar upward trends have been documented in Adamawa by [29][33][34]. These findings confirm that warming conditions are becoming more pronounced in north-eastern Nigeria, consistent with global climate change projections.

Figure 11. Tmax (1981 to 2021).

The mean annual minimum temperature exhibited a slight negative trend, with a Sen’s slope value of −0.005 (Figure 12). This suggests a very mild decline in nighttime temperatures, diverging from previous studies. For instance, [26][35] reported increasing minimum temperatures across Gombe and Adamawa States, while [32] observed a similar upward trend (albeit statistically insignificant) between 1987 and 2016. [34] also found rising minimum temperatures in Borno. The discrepancy observed in this study could be attributed to local microclimatic variations, differences in elevation, vegetation loss, or land cover change effects—factors known to influence nighttime cooling rates.

Figure 12.Tmin (1981 to 2021).

2)MigrationDynamics,Patterns,Drivers,andImpacts

The study on migration dynamics in North-eastern Nigeria highlights a complex landscape shaped by a young, mobile population battling socio-economic vulnerabilities, environmental stress, and persistent insecurity. Most migrants are young, with over 60% possessing formal education, yet many are low-income earners displaced by conflict, as noted by [36]. Migration patterns are primarily internal, with individuals moving to nearby areas that share cultural ties for better access to services, as observed by [37], and resembling global trends identified by [38].

The main drivers are conflict, terrorism, and climate change, particularly the impacts of insurgency and the shrinking of Lake Chad, as emphasized by [39]. While humanitarian agencies like the government, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA), and other non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have provided vital assistance, migrants face challenges such as loss of family connections and food insecurity, reflecting the push-pull dynamics discussed by [40][41]. They also encounter social issues like loneliness and discrimination, with young males often leading migration trends [36]. Environmentally, migration has resulted in pollution and unregulated development at destinations, while causing the abandonment of farmland at origins, consistent with the findings of [42]. Therefore, while migration can provide new opportunities and adaptation strategies, it simultaneously exposes deep vulnerabilities. The findings call for sustainable interventions, including strengthening education and vocational training, improving social protection, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, and better urban planning to transform migration into a choice rather than a last resort for survival.

3)RelationshipbetweenClimateChangeandMigration

The relationship between climate variability and migration was explored using Spearman’s rank correlation analysis, complemented by insights from existing qualitative and survey-based literature. While the statistical analysis provides useful contextual signals, the findings are interpreted cautiously, recognizing that migration decisions are shaped by multiple interacting social, economic, and security-related factors.

The analysis revealed a strong negative correlation between net migration and annual rainfall (p = −0.80), suggesting that periods of higher rainfall may be associated with reduced outward migration. This pattern is consistent with qualitative evidence showing that adequate rainfall supports agricultural productivity and livelihood stability, thereby reducing the need for mobility [43]. However, the lack of statistical significance (p = 0.20) indicates that rainfall alone cannot be considered a decisive driver of migration. Rather, rainfall variability appears to influence migration indirectly by affecting livelihood security, as also emphasized by [44], who showed that households often adopt migration as a coping strategy when environmental stress interacts with economic vulnerability.

Similarly, moderate positive correlations were observed between net migration and both maximum and minimum temperatures (p = 0.40), suggesting a possible association between rising thermal stress and increased migration. Nonetheless, these relationships were not statistically significant (p = 0.60), limiting their explanatory power. This finding aligns with [45], which reported that temperature variations did not significantly influence migration decisions in Somalia, largely due to local adaptive capacities and non-climatic constraints.

Qualitative and comparative studies further highlight that climate factors do not operate in isolation. While [46] documented cases in the Global South where rising temperatures have contributed to both voluntary and forced migration, other studies emphasize context-specific responses shaped by governance, economic opportunities, and social networks [47][48]. [49] similarly observed that migrants may consider climatic similarity when selecting destinations, underscoring the nuanced role of climate as a conditioning rather than a determining factor.

Overall, the findings suggest that climate variability in north-eastern Nigeria functions primarily as a risk amplifier, increasing vulnerability and pressure on livelihoods, rather than acting as a direct trigger of migration. Consequently, qualitative insights and survey-based evidence are essential for understanding how households perceive and respond to climatic stress, while correlation results should be interpreted as indicative patterns rather than causal relationships.

This study examines climate trends in north-eastern Nigeria from 1981 to 2021 and finds a clear shift toward lower rainfall and higher temperatures. Although these changes may seem small from year to year, their long-term effects are serious. Reduced rainfall and rising heat are drying soils and shrinking water resources, which threatens food security and the livelihoods of communities that depend on rain-fed farming.

The study also shows that climate change influences migration, but it is not the main reason people move. Instead, economic hardship, insecurity, and the search for education and better opportunities remain the strongest drivers of migration. Climate change mainly increases vulnerability, making these economic and social pressures harder to manage and more likely to push people to relocate.

Growing pressure on limited land and water resources is increasing social tensions and local conflicts, while also limiting people’s ability to adapt or move safely. Therefore, policies should not focus solely on climate adaptation. Effective responses must combine climate strategies with economic development, social protection, and youth empowerment to reduce forced migration.

A key limitation of this study is the lack of detailed migration data at the state and local levels. National statistics may miss important local and cross-border movement patterns. Future studies should utilize more detailed migration data and qualitative methods to gain a deeper understanding of how households make migration decisions. Strong climate monitoring systems and evidence-based policies will be essential for reducing displacement risks and supporting long-term stability in the region.

The work is part of the Doctoral Research Program on Climate Change and Human Habitat of the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) at the Federal University of Technology Minna, Niger State, Nigeria, sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).