jfrm Journal of Financial Risk Management 2167-9541 2167-9533 Scientific Research Publishing 10.4236/jfrm.2025.144026 jfrm-147915 Article Business Economics Determinant Factors of Trade Wu Amelie 1 Westminster School, London, UK

The author declares no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

 15 10 2025 10 2025 14 04 498 511 07 10 2025 08 12 2025 11 12 2025 © 2025 by the authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. 2025 This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ). https://doi.org/10.4236/jfrm.2025.144026

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of GDP per capita growth on trade indicators. Moreover, we would like to investigate whether the developing level of the countries plays a significant role in this relationship. The dataset of 154 countries is derived from the World Bank World Development Indicator. By using regression analysis, the results highlight a positive relationship between GDP per capita growth and trade indicators for developing countries, while we couldn’t capture significant relationship for developed countries, suggesting that the level of development in these countries plays an important role in the relationship. These findings have important insights for policymakers, investors, and managers.

 Trade Export Import FDI GDP per capita growth Regression 1. Introduction

Trade indicators and GDP per capita growth are key macroeconomic parameters, commonly adopted as fundamental measures of a country’s economic performance. Exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow and outflow are used as proxies of trade in this paper. They allow the exchange of goods, capital, and technology across country borders, driving economic development and innovation. At the same time, GDP per capita growth is regarded as an important proxy for a country’s overall economic well-being, reflecting improvements in living standards.

Exploring and understanding the relationship between trade indicators and GDP per capita growth is crucial for economists and policymakers aiming to design effective development strategies. While general economic theories suggest that increased trade and higher investment flows stimulate growth, the resulting empirical findings are controversial, indicating that the relationship may vary across countries at different levels of development ([6]; [19]; [2]; [14]).

Hence, this paper seeks to investigate this relationship through analysing the impact of trade variables on GDP per capita growth in developing and developed countries separately. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the ongoing discussion about trade and development, investigating a broader set of trade-related indicators and disaggregating the analysis between developing and developed countries.

In this way, this paper makes contributions to the existing literature, offering a more comprehensive view on the trade and growth relationship, providing applicable insights on policy decisions. Thus, the findings have implications not only limited to trading policies, but also national economic planning. In addition, most of the existing literature treats countries as a homogeneous group; this paper differs from this literature through distinguishing between developed and developing countries, enabling a more detailed analysis of how GDP per capita growth affects trade. Moreover, this study considers trade from a multitude of dimensions, such as exports, imports, FDI inflows, FDI outflows, and trade, providing a broader insight into trade dynamics. This paper offers the most up-to-date and extensive dataset that presents more robust empirical evidence. These contributions provide important insights for policy makers, investors, and international organizations.

The paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 provides background information on the existing literature, Section 3 highlights the empirical findings, and Section 4 concludes the paper.

 2. Literature Review

Various methodologies have been used to investigate the relationship between many different trade proxies and economic growth such as Granger Causality Test ([21]; [4]), Johansen Cointegration Method ([19]), Regression Analysis ([12]; [7]; [8]; [1]), Time Series Data Analysis ([11]), Panel Data Regression ([2]; [5]; [14]), VECM Model ([13]), ANOVA ([3]), ARDL Model ([20]; [17]), and Error Correction Model ([16]).

The variable used in the literature often varied. With some paper focused on macroeconomic indicators including trade ([6]), GDP per capita growth ([9]), CPI ([7]), exports ([21]), imports ([11]), sustainable development ([14]), FDI ([1]), trade openness ([2]), education attainment ([5]), air-transport passenger ([17]), investment in research and development ([18]), and exchange rate ([16]).

Many studies have focused on various countries and regions such as Asian countries ([6]), East China ([11]), New Zealand ([7]), Japan ([19]), Ghana ([2]), United States ([21]), Croatia ([10]), Latin America ([8]), SAARC countries ([1]), Saudi Arabia ([3]), Central Europe ([13]), Indonesia ([16]), and Northern Europe ([18]).

The relationship between trade, FDI, exports, imports, and economic growth has been widely explored in the literature across countries. For example, [6] and [21] highlight that trade-driven growth varies by region. The Asian economy experienced strong export-led growth, while Western countries saw slower growth due to domestic policy issues. Similarly, [19] shows that trade supports growth in Japan and Korea, while volatility has a negative impact that is most significant in small open economies.

Several works emphasize the role of FDI, including [12], who indicate that FDI boosts growth effectively in developing countries. Similarly, [5] suggest the same result, pointing out education, financial systems, and trade openness to be important factors influencing the size of the impact. [8] also show that only countries with strong financial systems experienced higher growth. [4] emphasizes that FDI leads to growth in the United States; in contrast, [20] point out that the relationship only holds in the short-run and FDI harms long-run growth.

It is obvious that trade is an important determinant factor of economic growth. [7] suggests that the majority of New Zealand’s GDP growth can be explained by higher levels of trade, while [9] states that the effect of improved terms of trade is understated by real GDP.

Exports and imports are also essential drivers of economic growth. [11] show that exports drive GDP growth in East China, while [10] find that exports have a weak impact on growth in Croatia. At the same time, [3] suggest that imports also contribute to GDP growth in Saudi Arabia.

In the most recent studies, many papers pay attention to sustainability, including [14] and [15].

An extensive summary of literature is presented in Table 1 below.

 3. Empirical Evidence 3.1. Data

Table A1 presents the various proxies of trade and growth variables from the World Bank World Development Indicator. The dataset belongs to the year 2023 and consists of the data from 154 countries. The 154 countries are ranked according to their GDP per capita level. The top 77 countries with the highest GDP per

Table 1. An extensive summary of literature.

Authors Year Key variables Method Key findings Region/country Time period
Ekholm & Södersten 2002 Trade, GDP per capita growth Descriptive statistics Strong export-led growth in Asia, Western countries, had slower growth. 10 Western/Asia countries 1970-1995
Zestos & Tao 2002 Exports, imports, GDP VECM, Cointegration and Causality Test Strong trade-GDP causality in Canada, weaker in US. Canada, US 1948-1996
Wong 2010 Real GDP per capita, labour, capital, terms of trade, oil price, financial development. Cointegration method Trade supports growth, while volatility harms small open economies. Japan, Korea 1960- 2006
Makki & Somwaru 2004 FDI, trade, domestic investment, human capital, GDP per capita Regression FDI and trade boost economic growth in developing countries. 66 Developing Countries 1971-2000
Li et al. 2010 GDP, Foreign trade, export, import Time-series Exports drive GDP growth in East China. East China 1981-2008
Grimes 2006 Terms of trade, GDP growth, CPI, export, import OLS New Zealand’s GDP growth is largely driven by trade. New Zealand 1960-2004
Kohli 2004 GDP growth, real income growth, cumulative trading gains Theoretical model, descriptive statistics Real GDP often understates true income gains from improved terms of trade. Global 1980-1996
Adu-Gyamfi et al. 2020 GDP, real exchange rate, trade openness, inflation Panel data regression, pooled OLS The relationship with GDP growth is positive for exchange rates, negative for inflation, and negligible for trade openness. Ghana, 32 Sub-Saharan Countries 1998-2017
Kovač et al. 2012 GDP, exports, imports Descriptive analysis Exports had a weak impact on GDP growth. Croatia, European Countries 2001-2010
Hermes & Lensink 2003 FDI, economic growth Regression FDI boosts economic growth only in countries with strong financial systems. 67 Countries 1970-1995
Abbas et al. 2011 FDI, GDP,CPI Regression FDI drives GDP growth. SAARC Countries 2001-2010
Batten & Vo 2009 Growth, FDI, trade openness, education attainment Panel data FDI supports economic growth. 79 Countries 1980-2003
Asheghian 2004 GDP, FDI, DI, TFP Granger Causality Test FDI growth drives US economic growth. US 1960-2000
Michelis & Zestos 2004 Exports, imports, GDP growth Granger causality test, VECM Two-way causality between trade and GDP growth. 6 EU Countries 1951-1997
Ali et al. 2023 Exports, imports, GDP ANOVA Saudi Arabia’s total exports and imports align with GDP. Saudi Arabia 2002-2021
Nguyễn & Phan 2025 FDI, GDP, sustainable development, trade Panel data analysis The relationship with sustainability is positive with exports and FDI, negative with imports, and negligible with economic growth. 64 Developing Countries 1990-2019
Yeboah et al. 2025 GDP, FDI, trade openness ARDL FDI boosts short-term growth but harms it long-term, while trade openness does the opposite. 9 European Countries 1995-2021
Slander-Wostner et al. 2025 Investment in R&D and human capital, growth, trade Regression Human capital and R&D investments together enhance productivity and exports. US, Europe, Asia 2001-2019
Prawoto 2025 GDP, trade taxes, exchange rate, imports ECM Imports rise with GDP, exchange rates, and manufacturing. Indonesia 1989-2023
Rai & Raju 2025 GDP per capita, Air-transport, trade openness ARDL Air transport and trade openness boost economic development. 20 High-Income Nations 1971-2019

capita are classified as developed countries, while the bottom 77 countries with the lowest GDP per capita are classified as developing countries. The variables include GDP per capita as a percentage of annual growth (GDP per capita), trade as a percentage of GDP (Trade), imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP (Imports), exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP (Exports), foreign direct investment net inflows as a percentage of GDP (FDI inflow), and foreign direct investment net outflows as a percentage of GDP (FDI outflow).

 3.2. Model

To investigate the relationship between growth and trade indicators, we estimated the following regression model.

Y i = β 0 + β 1 X i + ε i

where Yi is the dependent variable for observation i, which refers to trade, imports, exports, FDI inflow, and FDI outflow. β0 is the constant term, representing the expected value of the dependent variable when the independent variable is zero. β1 is the coefficient for the dependent variable, which includes GDP per capita growth. The coefficient shows how much the dependent variable changes when the independent variable changes by 1 unit. εi is the error term, which represents the difference between the actual value and the predicted value from the model. We estimated the following regression models.

Trade i = β 0 + β 1 GDP per capita growth i + ε i (Model 1)

Imports i = β 0 + β 1 GDP per capita growth i + ε i (Model 2)

Exports i = β 0 + β 1 GDP per capita growth i + ε i (Model 3)

FDI inflow i = β 0 + β 1 GDP per capita growth i + ε i (Model 4)

FDI outflow i = β 0 + β 1 GDP per capita growth i + ε i (Model 5)

 3.3. Descriptive Statistics

Table 2. (a) Descriptive statistics for developing countries; (b) Descriptive statistics for developed countries.

(a)
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
GDP per capita 77 2.51 3.375 −7.35 15.218
Trade 77 77.421 39.468 28.603 284.537
Imports 77 45.31 22.761 17.12 134.515
Exports 77 32.112 21.092 5.271 150.022
FDI inf 77 2.96 3.669 −2.497 18.491
FDI outf 64 0.197 0.598 −2.477 2.589
(b)
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
GDP per capita 77 1.401 2.817 −7.217 8.922
Trade 77 100.459 46.833 24.899 237.216
Imports 77 48.957 22.817 12.475 102.158
Exports 77 51.502 24.926 11.012 135.058
FDI inf 77 1.478 7.287 −33.098 15.643
FDI outf 72 −0.52 7.392 −34.162 6.907

Table 2(a) and Table 2(b) present descriptive statistics for GDP per capita growth and various trade indicators for developing countries and developed countries, respectively. GDP per capita has 77 observations. In developing countries, the mean is 2.51 with a standard deviation of 3.375, while in developed countries, the mean is 1.401 with a standard deviation of 2.817. The values range from a minimum of −7.35 to a maximum of 15.218 in developing countries, and from -7.217 to 8.922 in developed countries.

Trade has 77 observations with a mean of 77.421 for developing countries and 100.459 for developed countries, and a standard deviation of 39.468 for developing and 46.833 for developed. The range for trade spans from 28.603 to 284.537 in developing countries and from 24.899 to 237.216 in developed countries.

Imports are based on 77 observations. In developing countries, the mean value is 45.31 with a standard deviation of 22.761. In developed countries, the mean is slightly higher at 48.957, with a standard deviation of 22.817. The range of import values extends from −17.12 to 134.515 in developing countries and from 12.475 to 102.158 in developed countries.

Exports are drawn from 77 observations, with developing countries reporting a mean of 32.112 and developed countries a higher mean of 51.502. Standard deviation is measured at 21.092 for developing and 24.926 for developed. The range runs from a minimum of 5.271 for developing and 11.012 for developed to a maximum of 150.022 for developing and 135.058 for developed.

FDI inf has 77 observations. Developing countries record a mean of 2.96, with variability reflected in a standard deviation of 3.669. In contrast, developed countries show a lower mean of 1.478 and a standard deviation of 7.287. The values extend from a minimum of −2.497 to a maximum of 18.491 for developing countries, and from −33.098 to 15.643 for developed countries.

FDI outf has 64 observations for developing countries and 72 observations for developed countries. The mean is 0.197 in developing countries and −0.52 for developed countries, and the standard deviation is at 0.598 for developing and 7.392 for developed. The values range from a minimum of −2.477 for developing and -34.162 for developed to a maximum of 2.589 for developing and 6.907 for developed.

 3.4. Findings

The scatterplot graphics between GDP per capita growth and various trade variables are presented in Figure 1-5.

Scatterplot Figure 1 shows an interesting connection between trade and GDP per capita growth for developing and developed countries in panels a and b, respectively. It is clear that GDP per capita growth positively correlates with trade for developing countries, suggesting that the higher level of GDP per capita growth contributes to a higher level of trade. Interestingly, the relationship between GDP per capita and trade is not so strong for developed countries.

Figure 1. Scatterplot graphics between trade and GDP per capita growth.

Figure 2. Scatterplot graphics between imports and GDP per capita growth.

In Figure 2, we use different proxies of trade as an import. Scatterplot Figure 2 shows a relationship between imports and GDP per capita growth for developing and developed countries in panel a and panel b, respectively. It is clear that GDP per capita growth positively correlates with imports for developing countries, suggesting that the higher level of GDP per capita growth contributes to a higher level of imports. In contrast, there exists a slightly negative relationship between GDP per capita and imports for developed countries.

In relation to imports, we use exports as a different proxy of trade in Figure 3. The scatterplots in panel a (developing countries) and panel b (developed countries) illustrate the relationship between exports and GDP per capita growth. GDP per capita growth appears to be positively correlated with exports for developing countries, while negatively correlating with exports for developed countries. This finding indicates that the higher level of GDP per capita growth contributes to a higher level of exports for developing countries while a lower level of exports for developed countries.

Figure 3. Scatterplot graphics between exports and GDP per capita growth.

Figure 4. Scatterplot graphics between FDI inflow and GDP per capita growth.

In Figure 4, FDI inflow is used as an alternative proxy of trade. Scatterplot Figure 4 shows an association between FDI inflow and GDP per capita growth for developing and developed countries in panel a and panel b, respectively. The correlation between GDP per capita growth and FDI inflow is found to be positive for both developing and developed countries, suggesting that a higher level of GDP per capita growth contributes to a higher level of FDI inflow.

FDI outflow is used as the last proxy of trade in Figure 5. Scatterplot Figure 5 displays the correlation between FDI outflow and GDP per capita growth for developing and developed countries in panel a and panel b, respectively. While the relationship between GDP per capita growth and FDI outflow is slightly positive for developing countries, GDP per capita growth is more positively associated with FDI outflow for developed countries. Overall, these findings show that a higher level of GDP per capita growth contributes to a higher level of FDI outflow for developing countries, and this relationship is strong for developed countries.

Figure 5. Scatterplot graphics between FDI outflow and GDP per capita growth.

Table 3. Regression analysis for developing countries.

(Model 1) (Model 2) (Model 3) (Model 4) (Model 5)
VARIABLES trd exp imp fdii fdio
gdpper 3.021** 1.346* 1.675** 0.183** 0.029
(1.301) (0.718) (0.751) (0.091) (0.021)
Constant 69.839*** 28.733*** 41.106*** 2.500*** 0.112
(4.195) (2.173) (2.998) (0.463) (0.094)
Observations 77 77 77 77 64
R-squared 0.067 0.046 0.062 0.028 0.026

Robust standard errors in parentheses; ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table 3 presents the results of 5 different regression models for developing countries. The dependent variables are trade, exports, imports, FDI inflow, and FDI outflow. Each column corresponds to distinct model which an explanatory variable as GDP per capita growth. If the results are statistically significant at 1% level, we indicated by (***), the 5% level (**) and the 10% level (*). The sign in front of the vertical coefficients suggests whether GDP per capita growth has a statistically positive or negative impact on the dependent variable. “-” represents negative impact, while “+” represents positive impact on the dependent variable. We use a single variable regression model may rise concern about potential omitted variable bias. However, our primary objective at this stage was to identify the direct relationship between dependent variable and independent variable. In future analysis, we plan to introduce addition control variable to test the validity of our results. According to models 1 - 4, GDP per capita growth is positively associated with trade, exports, imports, and FDI inflow. In model 5, the relationship between GDP per capita growth and FDI outflow is statistically insignificant. The result supports the positive effect of GDP per capita growth on trade for developing countries, suggesting that the higher level of GDP per capita growth contributes to high level of trade, exports, imports, and FDI inflow. The result is robust based on many different proxies of trade.

Table 4. Regression analysis for developed countries.

(Model 1) (Model 2) (Model 3) (Model 4) (Model 5)
VARIABLES trd exp imp fdii fdio
gdpper −1.868 −1.476 −0.392 0.595 0.497
(2.421) (1.369) (1.088) (0.431) (0.346)
Constant 103.075*** 53.568*** 49.506*** 0.644 −1.193
(6.931) (3.800) (3.208) (1.305) (1.229)
Observations 77 77 77 77 72
R-squared 0.013 0.028 0.002 0.053 0.037

Robust standard errors in parentheses; ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table 4 displays the outcomes of 5 different regression models for developed countries, where the dependent variables are trade, exports, imports, FDI inflow, and FDI outflow. Each column corresponds to a separate model in which GDP per capita growth is the explanatory variable. The sign in front of the vertical coefficients indicates whether GDP per capita growth has a statistically positive or negative effect on the dependent variable. The findings emphasize that GDP per capita growth does not exert a statistically significant impact on proxies of trade in developed countries. This contrasts with the results for developing countries, where GDP per capita growth plays a more decisive role in shaping trade. The developing level of the countries has a significant effect on these relationships. For growing economies undergoing development, there exists a higher demand for imports of goods, capital, and investment. At the same time, as they expand, their export capacity also increases. Therefore, there is a stronger relationship between trade and GDP per capita growth for the developing countries. On the other hand, developing economies, with their relatively stable export capacity and low reliance on imports from abroad, show no significant relationship.

 4. Conclusion

The paper investigates the effect of GDP per capita growth on trade, imports, exports, and FDI, with a particular focus on the development level of countries in shaping this relationship. By employing scatterplots and regression analysis, the findings indicate that GDP per capita growth is a significant driver of trade, exports, imports, and FDI in developing countries. In contrast, the relationship was found to be statistically insignificant for developed countries.

Future studies could include additional economic or institutional factors to gain a more comprehensive understanding of what drives trade. In addition, they could focus on specific regions to gain a more detailed view of the relationship. Sustainability could also be assessed as an important factor. Moreover, future studies could investigate how external shocks, such as the Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, influence the trade and growth relationship. Future research could employ Granger Causality Test and instrumental variable techniques to identify the direction of causality more accurately. We also suggest that future research could further explore regional variations.

 Acknowledgements

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. Abdullah Yalaman for his invaluable support and guidance throughout the course of this research. His expertise and knowledge helped strengthen the framework of this study.

 Appendix

Table A1. Data definition.

Indicator Variable Definition Source
GDP per capita GDP per capita (annual % growth) Gross domestic product is the total income earned through the production of goods and services in an economic territory during an accounting period. The core indicator has been divided by the general population to achieve a per capita estimate. WDI World Bank
Trade Trade (% of GDP) Trade is the sum of exports and imports of goods and services. WDI World Bank
Imports Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) Imports include goods transferred and services provided from non-residents to residents. WDI World Bank
Exports Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) Exports include goods transferred and services provided from residents to non-residents. WDI World Bank
FDI inflow Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP) Foreign direct investment are the net inflows of investment to acquire a lasting management interest in an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor. WDI World Bank
FDI outflow Foreign direct investment, net outflows (% of GDP) This series shows net outflows of investment from the reporting economy to the rest of the world, and is divided by GDP. WDI World Bank
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