Reports on heat conditions leading to well-above-average temperatures are currently impacting many parts of Western Europe, North America, North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. For example, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) recorded a temperature of 46.0˚C in early July 2025 in southern Spain, with nearly identical temperatures in Portugal, Italy, and Greece [1]. It was also reported that 40% of meteorological stations in Europe had recorded temperatures exceeding 40˚C [2]. In Bahrain, April 2025 marked a record since records began in 1902. The highest temperature recorded in June 2025, at Durrat Al Bahrain, was 48.5˚C (on 16^th June), establishing a record in Bahrain’s history as the highest temperature recorded for June [3].

Although many factors contribute to these high temperature records, there is significant concern that the intense military bombing in Gaza by Israelis (since 7^th October 2023) and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict (since 24th February 2022), along with the extensive U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities using 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) - GBU-57 (each weighing 13 tons delivered by 145 US-Israeli military aircraft), had a contribution. Additionally, the mutual rocket bombardment between Israel and Iran, which lasted for 12 days, involved thousands of explosions on both sides. Iran launched around 550 ballistic missiles at Israel during the conflict, while Israel launched about 1700 ballistic missiles at Iran (International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2025). These four military conflicts are expected to result in the release of heat and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exacerbating global warming [4][5]. The approximate amount of TNT exploded is 700 million tones.

This paper is devoted to proving the influence of military action for the climate due to the formation of CO₂ in the atmosphere resulting from TNT explosions. We presented useful approximate calculations excluding the change caused by debris and areolas from bombing on the atmospheric albedo (due to reflection and absorption of solar radiation with microparticles). This process takes place from eruption of volcano where they are not only absorbers and reflectors, but also, they can be nuclei of condensation and hence change the climate.

First, we must know that carbon dioxide (CO₂) is formed in bomb explosions as a result of the rapid combustion (oxidation) of carbon-rich organic compounds present in the explosive TNT. These compounds react with oxygen (present inside the explosive or in the air) to form various gases (Nitrogen N₂, Carbon Monoxide CO, and water vapor H₂O—which is a global warming gas), including carbon dioxide, in addition to releasing a huge amount of energy as a result of the sudden rapid reaction and the release of enormous heat in a very short time [6].

Our calculations estimate that the amount of CO₂ Equivalent released from the bombs (exothermic or heat-releasing interactions) from these military strikes is approximately one billion tons (10⁹ tons), while the reported current amount of CO₂ in our atmosphere (excluding emissions from war) is 53 billion tons (5.3 × 10¹⁰ tons). This means that the CO₂ emissions resulting from these four wars represent 1.8%, which may indicate that the global temperature has increased by nearly 2%, raising Earth’s temperature from 15.0˚C to 15.3˚C [5][7]. This 0.3˚C increase is equivalent to the heat released from the explosion of 2,000 atomic bombs, as a 1˚C increase in Earth’s temperature is equivalent to 100,000 nuclear bombs [8]. In fact, the previous calculations are only valid if we do not include other radiative forces and assuming linear relation, which is not the real case. Section III shows more approximate calculation which will lead to the conclusion that the increase in the global temperature (ΔT) due to these four wars will be only 0.0013˚C (13 mK).

While the immediate emissions from individual bombardments might seem small compared to global emissions, the cumulative impact of ongoing conflicts, combined with emissions from military activities worldwide, contributes to the overall rise in global temperatures and aggravates global warming and subsequently climate change. Unfortunately, military emissions are often not included in annual national climate reporting or the IPCC National Climate Report [4][5].

According to some sources, raising the Earth’s temperature by 1˚C requires approximately 5 Exa-joules (5 × 10¹⁸ J) of energy. This amount of energy is often compared to the energy released by multiple atomic bombs. It was reported that the Earth’s current rate of heat accumulation is equivalent to the energy of 4 or 5 Hiroshima atomic bombs detonating every second [9]. Knowing that the “Little Boy” (Hiroshima) bomb releases approximately 6.3 × 10¹³ Joules and the “Fat Man” (Nagasaki) bomb releases approximately 8.4 × 10¹³ Joules, we conclude that a 1˚C increase in Earth’s temperature is equivalent to the heat liberated from the explosion of 100,000 nuclear bombs [5][10].

When heat is accumulated more in the atmosphere (global warming)—due to bombing tons of TNT—the climate change gets more predominance (Entropy). The accumulated heat in the atmosphere leads to increased disorder or randomness in the Earth’s climate system, which is related to the concept of Entropy for the following reasons:

1)Increased Energy Dispersal: As the atmosphere traps more heat (greenhouse gas effect), energy is distributed more unevenly across different parts of the planet. This enhanced energy dispersal results in more frequent and intense weather events, such as storms, droughts, and floods, increasing the overall randomness or “extreme weather events”—i.e., an increase in entropy—in the climate system [18].

2)Disruption of Climate Equilibrium: The Earth’s climate tends to stabilize in a balanced state. However, additional heat input disturbs this balance, pushing the system toward a new, less predictable state with a higher degree of disorder [19].

3)Enhanced Climate Variability: More accumulated heat amplifies natural climate fluctuations, making weather patterns less predictable and more chaotic, which is a hallmark of increased Entropy [5].

4)Irreversible Changes: Climate impacts like melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and altered ecosystems are largely irreversible processes that contribute to long-term increases in entropy, representing a move toward greater disorder [20].

Conflicts such as those in Gaza, the Israel-Iran mutual bombing, the U.S. strike on nuclear facilities in Iran, and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict do minimally contribute to global warming by releasing significant amounts of GHG, primarily CO₂, from fuel use, explosives, and especially from the massive reconstruction efforts required after destruction [4][5]. These emissions are substantial compared to the annual emissions of many individual countries.

These conflicts do not directly cause a measurable increase in global atmospheric temperature. The heat released may be localized and dissipates. The impact on global warming derives from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions over time, which contributes to the overall warming trend caused by human activities worldwide [5].

The true climate impact of war extends beyond direct emissions, encompassing environmental degradation, resource depletion, and diverting attention and resources from climate action. However, in terms of immediate, direct atmospheric temperature increase, the effect is negligible.

As heat builds up in the atmosphere, the increased energy and instability lead to more complex, unpredictable, and disordered climate behaviors—manifesting as an increase in the entropy of the Earth’s climate system [14].

In order to avoid limiting the scope and generalizability of these findings, we will, in another paper, consider other military activities and not these four specific conflicts.