The aim of this study focused on the examination and analysis of potential determinant factors of the key macroeconomic and financial figures of the Greek economy, after the implementation of the second Memorandum in 2012 until mid-2015 (right before the third one). Therefore, the research methodology and hypotheses are presented below, and aim to support the extraction of potential insights into the Greek economy that could indicate determinant or predictive factors of the course/decline of the main macroeconomic and financial figures.

The research methodology of the present study starts with the data collection from the official websites of the European statistics agency, Eurostat ( https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat ), and the Greek statistic agency, Elstat ( https://www.statistics.gr/ ). The referred data include the Greek economy’s most important macroeconomic and financial figures, e.g., GDP, public debt, production, equilibrium of current transactions, government budget, taxes, imports and exports of goods and services, etc., for 2012 until 2014.

Then, the next step of the methodological concept lies in the extraction of statistical coefficients capable of verifying the settled research hypotheses and providing further insights regarding the specific economic features that mostly affected Greece’s GDP, Public Debt, Equilibrium of Current Transactions, and Government Budget, during the second Memorandum. The deployed statistical methods included correlation and simple linear regression (SLR) models.

The final step of the methodology that would lead to the extraction of the research’s main conclusions, refers to the development of an FCM model that provides a static simulation of the main macroeconomic and financial figures of Greece based on specific values of other economic features. In this way, the authors should test potential scenarios of important economic features of the Greek economy, during the 2012 Memorandum and after, and eventually extract valuable insights for the preferred macroeconomic policy that should have been applied.

Moving to the paper’s research hypotheses, it should be mentioned that the present article tends to discover which macroeconomic and financial figures of the Greek economy, during the period of the second Memorandum (2012-2015), have a stronger impact on Greece’s main performance indexes (GDPR, Public Debt, Equilibrium of Current Transactions, Government Budget). By examining the connection between 25 key economic indicators of the Greek economy (such as product taxes, inflation rate, net savings, and foreign residents) and its primary macroeconomic variables (GDP, public debt, current account balance, and government budget) during the 2012 Memorandum, the authors can grasp the overall impact of the Memorandum’s measures on Greece’s economy. This approach allows for an evaluation of the effectiveness of the 2012 Memorandum’s measures. Therefore, the research hypotheses supporting the outlined methodological and research framework are presented below:

Hypothesis 1 (H1): Key economic features, affected by the Memorandum of 2012, significantly impact Greece’s GDPR figure.

Hypothesis 2 (H2): The impact of the affected by 2012 Memorandum Greek features on Public Debt is significant.

Hypothesis 3 (H3): Greece’s Equilibrium of Current Transactions is being significantly affected by the variation of Greek economic features caused by the obtrusion of the 2012 Memorandum.

Hypothesis 4 (H4): A significant effect is provoked to Greece’s Government Budget from Greek economic features afflicted by the Memorandum of 2012.

To support the verification of the research hypotheses, the authors performed 4 simple linear regression (SLR) models, with dependent variables the 4 main macroeconomic and financial figures of the Greek economy: GDP, Public Debt, Equilibrium of Current Transactions, and Government Budget. As independent variables for all of the referred dependent ones, a plethora of financial and macroeconomic indexes were used, like exports, imports, production, product taxes, consumer expenditure, subsidies on products, government expenditure, etc. The authors used the Enter method to automatically exclude any insignificant independent variables and thus, extract the regression models that best fit the dependent variables’ variation. To do this task and ensure the result’s validity and reproducibility, the normality of the variables’ distribution, among other tests, like data directionality and correlation ( Pearson, 1895 ), was verified. In Table 1 , the main descriptive statistics of the study’s variables are presented.

n = 7 observations/years (2009-2015). Source: Created by the authors.

As can be seen from Tables 2 - 5 , the variables of import taxes/duties, travelers from EU countries, equilibrium of primary income, foreign exchange reserves, foreign investment, antidumping taxes, exports, and production of goods were found to impact significantly all of the 4 dependent variables (GDP, Public Debt, Equilibrium of Current Transactions and Government Budget). More specifically, the deployed SLR models had an R² = 1.000, and all of the independent variables included had a significant impact on the dependent variables, with p-values < 0.01 significance level. Therefore, for every 1% increase in import taxes/duties, travelers from EU countries, equilibrium of primary income, foreign exchange reserves, and foreign investment production of goods:

Moreover, for every 1% increase in exports, antidumping taxes, travelers from EU countries, equilibrium of primary income, foreign exchange reserves, foreign investment, Equilibrium of Current Transactions variates by 71.2%, −0.1, 9.5%, 28.8%, −5.3%, and −18.2% accordingly. Thus, the research hypotheses H1-H4 are verified, meaning that specific economic features of the Greek economy during the 2012 Memorandum had a significant impact on Greece’s key macroeconomic and financial figures (GDP, Public Debt, Equilibrium of Current Transactions, and Government Budget).

$\begin{array}{c}GDPt=-0.026ImportTaxest+0.049TravelersEUt\\ -0.062Equil.PrimaryIncomet+0.105ForeignExchangeAvail.t\\ -0.017ForeignInvestt+1.035Productiont+\epsilon t\end{array}$

**Indicate statistical significance at the 99% confidence level. Source: Created by the authors.

$\begin{array}{c}Pub.Debtt=1.473ImportTaxest-0.271TravelersEUt\\ +1.052Equil.PrimaryIncomet+0.153ForeignExchangeAvail.t\\ -1.315ForeignInvestt-0.001Productiont+\epsilon t\end{array}$

**Indicate statistical significance at the 99% confidence level. Source: Created by the authors.

$\begin{array}{c}EquilCurrentTranst=0.712Exportst-0.001AntidumpingTaxest\\ +0.095TravelersEUt+0.288Equil.PrimaryIncomet\\ -0.053ForeignExchangeAvail.t\\ -0.182ForeignInvestt+\epsilon t\end{array}$

**Indicate statistical significance at the 99% confidence level. Source: Created by the authors.

$\begin{array}{c}GovernBudgett=0.431ImportTaxest-0.359TravelersEUt\\ +0.217Equil.PrimaryIncomet\\ -0.069ForeignExchangeAvail.t\\ +0.344ForeignInvestt-1.023Productiont+\epsilon t\end{array}$

**Indicate statistical significance at the 99% confidence level. Source: Created by the authors.

Subsequently, to strengthen the SLR models’ outputs and to extract potential further insights for the Greek economy’s macroeconomic figures course, the authors proceeded to perform an FCM model and 3 discrete scenarios. FCMs are fuzzy graph structures that illustrate causal relationships, allowing for varying degrees of causation between unclear causal elements ( Kosko, 1986 ). As a “soft computing” method, FCMs integrate fuzzy logic with neural networks to model complex systems. Despite their flexibility, the creation of FCMs heavily depends on human expertise and knowledge ( Krimpas et al., 2023 ). FCMs use a parametric pattern of interpretation where static features, representing knowledge, are shaped by defining key attributes like process variables, the nature of positive or negative correlations among them, and the strength of connections between factors. The concept of idea maps underpins FCM research methods, which are implemented through chart and diagram analyses of a system’s elements. These frameworks can simulate processes influenced by numerous variables, with efforts focused on mapping correlation coefficients and the overall structure ( Migkos et al., 2022 ).

In the earlier stages of the analysis, data were gathered on variables within the Greek economy that had a substantial impact on its key indicators, including GDP, Public Debt, Current Account Balance, and the Government Budget. This dataset comprises eight independent variables, which were analyzed to assess their influence and explanatory power regarding the selected dependent variables, ultimately determining the effectiveness of the second Memorandum’s measures. The data underwent further examination using the Pearson correlation coefficient test, yielding 12 statistically significant correlations. Notably, strong correlations were observed at a significance level of 0.01, highlighting the dynamic nature of the four primary explanatory variables of the Greek economy, which share several common independent variables. The variation in the statistical analysis variables revealed a causal relationship between variables with high Pearson correlations (r > 0.8).

The arrow’s direction indicates the nature of the relationship between variables, with its thickness corresponding to the strength of the correlation. Blue arrows represent positive correlations, while orange arrows denote negative ones. This concept map was generated using the MentalModeler (2024) software. The use of fuzzy cognitive mapping in this dynamic environment improves the study’s capacity for evaluation and explanation.

After constructing and illustrating the fuzzy cognitive representation map ( Figure 3 ), the authors moved on to develop and analyze three scenarios using FCM to depict the response of key indicators of the Greek economy during the 2012 Memorandum. Before running the state forecast scenarios, the correlation levels between variables were defined, with 1 as the maximum value and −1 as the minimum for all variables in the sample. The selection of the three Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) scenarios is based on exploring a range of policy priorities and their potential impacts on Greece’s economy under the 2012 Memorandum.

Each scenario is designed to represent a distinct fiscal approach:

1) Broad Economic Stimulation (Scenario 1): This scenario simulates an across-the-board increase in economic features, aiming to assess the effects of stimulating various sectors simultaneously. It reflects a policy priority focused on promoting growth through increased economic activity, testing the feasibility of a comprehensive fiscal expansion during a crisis.

2) Comprehensive Contraction (Scenario 2): This scenario models a reduction in key economic features, representing an austerity-driven approach aimed at reducing public debt and controlling budget deficits. This helps explore the trade-offs involved in aggressive fiscal contraction and the potential risks of such measures on economic performance and stability.

3) Selective Adjustment (Scenario 3): In this scenario, certain features are increased while others are decreased to simulate a balanced approach. This reflects a mixed strategy, where policymakers selectively promote growth sectors while tightening other areas. It tests the effectiveness of a more nuanced, targeted approach to achieve a stable balance between debt reduction and economic stimulation.

These scenarios allow the study to provide insights into how each approach impacts Greece’s key economic indicators. By comparing these distinct fiscal strategies, the study aims to inform policymakers on the trade-offs and potential outcomes of various policy combinations, supporting more effective decision-making in economic crisis contexts.

In the first scenario (as seen in Figure 4 ), the authors seek to discern the effect of a 20% increase in all of the selected economic features (import taxes/duties, travelers from EU countries, equilibrium of primary income, foreign exchange reserves, and foreign investment production of goods, exports and antidumping taxes) on the main macroeconomic and financial figures of GDP, Public Debt, Equilibrium of Current Transactions and Government Budget. GDP increased by 4%, the Government Budget decreased by 9%, the Equilibrium of Current Transactions decreased by 8%, and Public Debt decreased by 7%. Although all of the selected features were increased in this scenario, the GDP only increased by 4% and the Public Debt decreased by 7%. This indicates that a more diverse strategy should be implemented to achieve more balanced results for the main macroeconomic figures.

In the second scenario (as seen in Figure 5 ), the authors seek to discern the effect of a 20% decrease in all of the selected economic features (import taxes/duties, travelers from EU countries, equilibrium of primary income, foreign exchange reserves, and foreign investment production of goods, exports and antidumping taxes) on the main macroeconomic and financial figures of GDP, Public Debt, Equilibrium of Current Transactions and Government Budget. GDP increased by 27%, the Government Budget decreased by 47%, the Equilibrium of Current Transactions decreased by 40%, and Public Debt decreased by 31%. Such a scenario seems quite unlikely to be applied since a decrease of nearly 50% in the Government Budget could not be a viable solution.

In the third scenario (as seen in Figure 6 ), the authors seek to discern the effect of a 20% increase in import taxes/duties, equilibrium of primary income, foreign exchange reserves, production of goods and exports, and a 20% decrease in foreign investment, travelers from EU countries and antidumping taxes, on the main macroeconomic and financial figures of GDP, Public Debt, Equilibrium of Current Transactions and Government Budget. GDP increased by 10%, the Government Budget decreased by 20%, the Equilibrium of Current Transactions decreased by 18%, and Public Debt decreased by 12%. This scenario features the desired results of a significant GDP increase and Public Debt decrease during the 2012 Memorandum, while in the meantime, the Government Budget and Equilibrium of Current Transactions face a tolerable decrease of 20% and 18%.