The Delphi method was employed to gather expert opinions on the potential trajectories of U.S. governance in the event of a reconfiguration of elites under Trump’s leadership. The method is designed to build consensus among experts through multiple rounds of surveys, each refining the issues and uncertainties identified in the previous round ( Linstone & Turoff, 2002 ). For this study, a panel of 30 senior specialists in political science, governance, and U.S. politics was assembled. Experts were drawn from institutions such as Harvard University, the Council on Foreign Relations, and major think tanks with expertise in U.S. governance and elite theory. Each expert was selected based on their contribution to the study of elite configurations and political transitions.

The Delphi process was conducted in three rounds:

1) Round 1 consisted of open-ended questions exploring the key uncertainties surrounding Trump’s re-election and its potential impact on elite configurations.

2) Round 2 refined the issues identified in the first round, focusing on specific scenarios where Trump’s re-election could lead to a shift from democratic to autocratic governance.

3) Round 3 achieved consensus on the most likely scenarios and their potential implications for U.S. democracy.

Building on the results of the Delphi method, a multiple scenario analysis was conducted to examine the possible outcomes of elite reconfigurations under Trump’s leadership. Multiple scenario analysis allows for the exploration of various combinations of uncertainties, offering distinct but plausible future scenarios. This approach has been widely used in strategic forecasting and future studies, particularly in contexts where the future is highly uncertain ( Schoemaker, 2020 ).

Four key scenarios were developed:

1) Scenario 1: Trump re-elected with a majority in Congress, leading to a complete reconfiguration of U.S. elites and a shift towards authoritarianism.

2) Scenario 2: Trump re-elected but with divided government, resulting in elite fragmentation and continued democratic erosion.

3) Scenario 3: Trump loses the election, but political polarisation continues, leading to elite instability.

4) Scenario 4: Trump loses decisively, and elite consensus is restored, stabilising democratic governance.

Each scenario was developed by mapping the key uncertainties and driving forces identified in the Delphi process, such as the cohesion of Republican elites, the role of the judiciary, and public trust in democratic institutions ( Gerlich, 2024 ).

To quantify the likelihood of each scenario, probabilistic modelling was employed. This involved defining probability distributions for key variables, such as the strength of elite cohesion, the probability of democratic backsliding, and the impact of populist rhetoric on public trust. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate multiple possible outcomes, allowing for a robust assessment of risks and uncertainties ( Kroese et al., 2011 ). This method provides a statistical basis for understanding the potential variability in political outcomes, ensuring that the scenarios developed are grounded in empirical data. Monte Carlo simulation, employed to model the probability of political shifts, involved defining probability distributions for elite cohesion and the likelihood of autocratic shifts, drawing on empirical data to support scenario likelihood assessments ( Kroese et al., 2011 ). This technique ensures that results are both statistically sound and reflective of potential variability in elite dynamics.

The combination of the Delphi method, multiple scenario analysis, and probabilistic modelling provides a comprehensive approach to understanding how elite configurations could shape the future of U.S. governance. The Delphi method, a structured communication technique, is critical for achieving expert consensus on uncertain political trajectories, as validated by Linstone and Turoff’s (2002) foundational work. Additionally, scenario analysis has gained prominence in understanding political uncertainties ( Schoemaker, 2020 ), while probabilistic modelling, particularly Monte Carlo simulations, allows quantitative risk assessment of potential outcomes ( Kroese et al., 2011 ). By drawing on expert consensus and employing rigorous quantitative analysis, this methodology ensures that the conclusions drawn are both robust and reflective of the complex interplay between elites and political transitions.

The consensus from the Delphi method suggests that U.S. elites are currently exhibiting characteristics of a disunited elite configuration, a state that tends to destabilise democratic systems ( Higley & Burton, 2006 ). Many experts highlighted that Trump’s previous presidency catalysed a breakdown of the traditional consensual unity among elites. By undermining long-established democratic norms and installing loyalists in key positions, Trump fostered an environment where personal loyalty took precedence over institutional integrity ( Gerlich, 2024 ). This trend aligns with Diamond’s (2020) broader analysis of global democratic recessions, where similar elite reconfigurations have been key in weakening democratic structures. This breakdown of elite consensus aligns with other studies, such as Körösényi (2020) , who observed similar elite fragmentation under populist leaders like Viktor Orbán in Hungary. Körösényi’s analysis demonstrated that disunited elites contributed to democratic backsliding by weakening institutional safeguards, a pattern currently emerging in the U.S. Bogaards (2021) highlights similar patterns of elite disunity in Hungary, showing how fragmentation can lead to the erosion of democratic norms. Building on these expert insights, probabilistic modelling offers a robust statistical basis for understanding the likelihood of different elite configurations and their implications. The probabilistic model applies 1,000 Monte Carlo iterations to estimate scenario probabilities across multiple dimensions of political and social change, including elite fragmentation, imposed unity elites, and devoid elites within the U.S. political landscape. This extensive simulation provides a comprehensive range of likely outcomes, leveraging input from historical data, expert insights, and existing models in comparative political contexts.

In this extended analysis, the following probabilities are assigned based on cumulative expert evaluations and literature sources ( Körösényi, 2020 ; Higley & Burton, 2006 ):

1) Elite Fragmentation and Democratic Erosion: The likelihood of significant democratic erosion under elite fragmentation remains high at 70%, reflecting the recurrent patterns observed in other fragile democracies ( Gerlich, 2023 ). This high-risk probability underscores how U.S. elite disunity, akin to observed political shifts in Hungary and Turkey, can destabilise long-standing democratic structures, particularly under populist leadership.

2) Devoid Elites and Concentration of Power: The model reveals a 65% probability that devoid elites, characterised by figurehead positions without substantial decision-making influence, will increase under Trump-like leadership. This scenario, derived from similar structures in post-Soviet states, aligns with the findings of Gerlich (2023) , who argued that devoid elites weaken institutional checks and facilitate authoritarian shifts.

3) Imposed Unity Elites and Authoritarian Consolidation: This configuration presents a 60% probability of elite unity being maintained through coercive or politically necessary alignments rather than genuine ideological cohesion. This outcome reflects patterns seen in autocratic contexts, where apparent elite solidarity conceals internal discord, as demonstrated in the political strategies observed in Hungary and Azerbaijan ( Körösényi, 2020 ).

4) Scenario-Based Likelihoods for Key Political Outcomes:

The scenario analysis reveals a high probability of further elite fragmentation if Trump is re-elected. According to the Monte Carlo simulation results, there is a 70% probability that elite fragmentation will lead to significant democratic erosion by 2028. This outcome reflects broader global trends where populist leaders leverage elite disunity to dismantle democratic institutions, as seen in Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ( Esen & Gumuscu, 2016 ). In Turkey, elite fragmentation allowed Erdoğan to consolidate power by weakening democratic norms and concentrating authority within his inner circle, a strategy Trump could replicate if given another term. Building on these expert insights, probabilistic modelling offers a robust statistical basis for understanding the likelihood of different elite configurations and their implications.

These scenario probabilities align with global trends where elite reconfigurations frequently exacerbate instability. For instance, Erdoğan’s consolidation in Turkey and Orbán’s centralisation in Hungary resulted from leveraging elite disunity to weaken opposition forces ( Esen & Gumuscu, 2016 ). The simulation’s high-risk outputs in the U.S. context reveal the potential for a similar trajectory if populist-driven elite dynamics persist.

A critical insight from this study is the increasing presence of devoid elites within the U.S. political system, a concept first explored by Gerlich (2023) in the context of post-Soviet regimes. The Delphi panel identified Trump’s tendency to appoint loyalists with limited decision-making power as indicative of a devoid elite structure. These individuals, while holding formal positions of authority, lack the genuine influence or autonomy to challenge Trump’s agenda, serving more as figureheads than as active participants in governance. The implications of devoid elites are significant. As Gerlich (2023) argued, devoid elites undermine the institutional capacity of democratic systems, making them more vulnerable to autocratic shifts. Kornai (2020) further supports this argument, demonstrating how devoid elites erode the foundations of democratic checks and balances, paving the way for autocratic governance. This study’s findings confirm that Trump’s use of devoid elites weakens the checks and balances within the U.S. government, concentrating real power in the hands of a small group of loyalists. This is similar to Gherghina & Volintiru’s (2021) findings in their analysis of elite structures in Eastern Europe, where devoid elites facilitated the erosion of democratic institutions by allowing autocratic leaders to centralise power without significant resistance.

The probabilistic modelling also suggests that an imposed unity elite configuration is likely to emerge under Trump’s re-election. In this scenario ( Table 1 ), elites publicly display loyalty to Trump, but there is little ideological cohesion or genuine consensus. This facade of unity creates the appearance of stability, masking the deeper divisions and elite discontent that threaten the democratic system ( Gerlich, 2023 ). The Delphi experts noted that Trump’s dominance within the Republican Party already exhibits characteristics of imposed unity, where many elites support him publicly out of political necessity rather than ideological alignment. This elite configuration poses a significant risk to U.S. democracy. Magyar (2016) explains that imposed unity within elite groups, as seen in Hungary, often creates the illusion of stability while masking deeper elite discontent, which can hasten the transition to authoritarianism.

The Monte Carlo simulation indicates a 60% probability that the U.S. will experience significant autocratic tendencies by 2030 if an imposed unity elite configuration persists. This is consistent with the findings of Acemoglu and Robinson (2019) , who have argued that elite unity, when coerced or imposed, can accelerate the shift towards authoritarianism by eliminating meaningful dissent and concentrating power. The scenario analysis also resonates with studies on authoritarian regimes, such as in Azerbaijan, where imposed unity among elites helped maintain the appearance of governance while concealing the centralisation of power ( Gerlich, 2023 ).

The scenarios developed in this study resonate with patterns observed in other countries undergoing elite reconfigurations. In Turkey, Erdoğan’s consolidation of power followed a trajectory similar to what is currently unfolding in the U.S. under Trump. By strategically appointing loyalists and sidelining dissenters, Erdoğan was able to transition Turkey from a fragile democracy to an increasingly autocratic regime ( Esen & Gumuscu, 2016 ). Similarly, in Azerbaijan, devoid elites have played a critical role in maintaining the facade of governance while real power remains concentrated among a small group of elites ( Gerlich, 2023 ). These parallels suggest that the U.S. could follow a similar path if Trump is re-elected and continues to reconfigure the elite structure in his favour. Tilly (2021) argues that elite reconfigurations are often central to democratic decline, particularly when elites fail to maintain consensus. Furthermore, the U.S. elite configuration could also follow the trajectory observed in Hungary, where Orbán used elite fragmentation to centralise power while maintaining the veneer of democratic legitimacy. Körösényi (2020) documented how devoid elites in Hungary allowed Orbán to gradually erode democratic institutions, concentrating power while preserving the appearance of democratic governance. The presence of devoid elites in both Hungary and Azerbaijan provides a useful comparative framework for understanding how elite reconfigurations in the U.S. could similarly lead to the erosion of democratic norms ( Table 2 ).

The potential global impact of elite reconfigurations in the U.S. cannot be understated. As highlighted in the Delphi and multi-scenario analysis, a shift in U.S. governance could exacerbate global instability, particularly if the U.S. moves towards autocracy under Trump’s leadership ( Gerlich, 2024 ). A weakened U.S. democracy would embolden autocratic regimes globally, destabilising democratic norms and increasing nationalism. This reflects the broader global trend towards populism and autocracy, as observed in countries like Brazil, India, and Hungary ( Levitsky & Ziblatt, 2018 ).

Additionally, a shift in U.S. governance could have profound implications for international power balances. The decline of U.S. democratic leadership would create opportunities for China and Russia to expand their influence, particularly in regions where U.S. leadership has historically been strong, such as Europe and the Middle East. Zakaria (2021) suggests that the rise of populism and nationalism globally is often reinforced by elite reconfigurations in influential democratic states. The global consequences of elite reconfigurations in the U.S. could, therefore, trigger further instability, polarisation, and conflict between democratic and autocratic states ( Levitsky & Ziblatt, 2018 ). As Verovšek (2020) notes, elite-driven changes in key democratic states often influence global geopolitical alignments, particularly in regions with fragile democratic institutions. The findings underscore the increased likelihood of democratic erosion in the U.S. should elite disunity and imposed unity configurations persist, with probabilistic analysis indicating a 70% risk of significant democratic backsliding by 2028.