Based on the community participatory climate risk assessment conducted in the 10 wards of Lamu County, the following hazards were identified and prioritized based on their frequency and severity of impact on people and resources (Table 1). In Shella Ward, the prioritized hazards were drought, storms, and pests and diseases. Basuba Ward prioritized drought, livestock diseases, and human-wildlife conflict. Hindi Ward identified drought, human diseases, and crops/livestock pests and diseases. Hongwe Ward prioritized drought, floods, and conflict.

Kiunga Ward prioritized drought, livestock diseases, and rising sea levels. Mkomani Ward prioritized drought, strong winds, and increased pests and diseases. Bahari Ward identified drought, resource-based conflicts, and pests and diseases as the prioritized hazards. Mkunumbi Ward prioritized drought, conflict (resource-based and human-wildlife), and floods. Faza Ward prioritized drought, increase in pests and diseases, and strong winds. Finally, Witu Ward identified drought, human diseases, and crops/livestock’s pesticides and diseases as the prioritized hazards. These prioritized hazards reflect the community’s assessment of the highest levels of vulnerability and risk in their respective wards. The table and map below show a summary of the prioritized hazards and their spatial distribution across.

The hazard Map 1 indicates the community perception risks; sea level rise, floods, storms, drought, resource based-conflicts (human-human and humanwildlife) & pest and diseases at different wards. The prevailing perception within the community denotes that conflicts emanating from resource scarcity exhibit varying degrees of prominence within Lamu Wards. Specifically, the Bahari and Mkunumbi regions are characterized by a notably high prevalence of resource-based conflicts, followed by the Hindi and Hongwe wards, which exhibit a moderate level of conflict occurrence. In contrast, Basuba experiences a similar moderate level of conflict, while Witu, Kiunga, Mkomani, Shella, and Faza wards record a comparatively low incidence of such conflicts. The elevated prevalence of conflicts is primarily attributed to the competition arising from the limited availability of pasture and water resources. Additionally, longstanding rivalries between agro-pastoral communities, alongside cross-border migrations from Garissa and Tana River counties, have contributed to the escalated conflict dynamics. Community insights highlight an escalated influx of pastoralists from the Garissa region into Lamu, largely influenced by the prevailing water crisis in Garissa County.

The scarcity of water resources has prompted pastoralists to migrate to Lamu

in search of sustenance for their livestock, a trend confirmed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA). These migrating nomads often adopt dual roles, engaging in security duties while herding their livestock during daylight hours. The rationale underlying this migration pertains to the perception that Lamu offers enhanced access to water resources due to the availability of abundant open-access boreholes and wells, particularly contrasting with the constrained water availability in Garissa [7] .

The Lamu Port, South Sudan, Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET) project has attracted a substantial influx of people from different parts of Kenya towards Lamu County. The targeted demographic for this migration predominantly comprises non-native residents. Consequently, this phenomenon has engendered an escalated reliance on locally available resources, fueling inter-human conflicts. For example, the discovery of oil reserves in the Lamu area and the operationalization of the LAPSSET corridor, marked by substantial financial investments, have precipitated an escalation in land valuation. This upsurge has in turn facilitated the acquisition of land by external entities owing to their enhanced economic capabilities. The consequent emergence of horizontal socioeconomic disparity between indigenous inhabitants and non-native stakeholders has elicited sentiments of discontent, thereby catalyzing a climate of instability within Kenya’s coastal precinct [6] . Community perception also indicates that conflicts have been worsened by the emergence of hazards originating from the repercussions of climate change, including but not limited to phenomena such as sea level rise, pest and disease outbreaks, storms, floods and periods of drought [14] .

The pastoralist and farming communities have encountered rapid land acquisition and have faced with issues arising from population growth. These challenges encompass the depletion of grazing and agricultural lands, the expansion of urban zones, and the displacement of these communities due to both drought conditions and the intensification of expansive developmental initiatives characterized by the privatization and individualization of communal resources. Persisting and prolonged periods of drought have led to substantial livestock casualties, while excessive precipitation has correlated with an elevated frequency of pest and livestock diseases, including Rift Valley Fever. Owing to escalated drought occurrences and water scarcity, women are compelled to travel longer distances to secure water, thereby subjecting them to both physical fatigue and increased susceptibility to unsafe pathways. Furthermore, the limited freshwater availability in the county and increasingly high rainfall variability especially during the “long” rain season (MAM) have negatively affected the livelihood of these communities hence threatening security.

Figure 6 offers a comprehensive overview of the implications of climatic risks and trends on various assets and resources over time. It serves as a summary of the community’s perception regarding the severity of climate change impacts on their resources, consequently affecting their livelihoods. Notably, the graph

highlights the significant effects experienced on agricultural and livestock farming, which serve as the primary sources of livelihood. Followed closely are the impacts on human health and the existence of common interest groups such as Non-Governmental Organization, Community-Based Organizations (CBOs) and Beach Management Units (BMUs), and youth groups, which directly influence the residents’ livelihoods. However, it is worth mentioning that the effects of these hazards on fishing, a key economic and livelihood activity in Lamu, were not clearly noticeable across the majority of wards based on the data presented. However, existing literature indicates that prolonged droughts and alterations in rainfall patterns have had a profound impact on fishing. These changes have resulted in the extinction of certain fish species and a decline in the overall volume of fish [8] [11] and [15] .

It is evident that certain local responses to the conflict have demonstrated limited effectiveness and sustainability (Figure 7). Specifically, initiatives like alternative livelihood programs and migration to newer farmland have proven to be less reliable in achieving the desired outcomes. Conversely, the community identified a cluster of local responses that stand out as exceptionally effective and sustainable. These include reconciliation efforts, awareness creation campaigns, the establishment of peace dialogue committees, and the active engagement of the community in reporting incidents while advocating for an increase in surveillance or policing. These initiatives promised in attaining the community adaptation goals, which primarily encompass peaceful coexistence, the establishment of rescue centers, and the safeguarding of livelihoods and property within our community.

The analysis of monthly climatological spatial rainfall patterns for Lamu County reveals non-uniformity in the distribution of precipitation from January to December (Figure 8). Throughout this temporal span, distinct some parts of the county experience varying levels of rainfall intensity. During January, more rainfall (180 - 200 mm) is observed in the northwestern parts of the county, surpassing that in other areas. Transitioning into February, there is a shift in the distribution, with rainfall becoming prominent in the eastern and northeastern portions of the county. As the calendar progresses to March, April, and August, a marked convergence of rainfall is evident in the central and southern parts. Conversely, May and July exhibit an altered pattern, with precipitation primarily favoring the central areas, while the remainder of the months display a relatively even distribution of rainfall. Notably, a departure from this regularity is observed in the northeastern extremities of the county, bordering with Somalia (20 - 40 mm). This heterogeneity rainfall distribution across the county was also confirmed by the community perception.

The insights drawn from Figure 9 for the climatological temperature analysis, spanning from 1991 to 2020, indicates a spatial gradient of temperature variation across the county, characterized by a progressive shift from “warm” to relative “cooler” moving from west to east. For example, the western Wards of Witu, Mkunumbi, Hongwe, Bahari, Mkomani, Hindi, and Shella exhibit a higher level of warmth, and the eastern side consisting of Kiunga, Basuba, and Faza Wards, have a lower temperature. However, the central region covering the Islands (Shella and Mkomani) wards have a transitional moderate temperature variation.

According to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification, Lamu county is categorized as having a climate that falls between Tropical Monsoon and Arid Steppe Hot climates [16] . The county experiences a bimodal rainfall pattern with an annual precipitation of 540 mm, (KMD). The rainfall in the area is influenced by the NE and SE Monsoon winds, with the main rainy season occurring from late March to early June, followed by a decrease in rainfall from August to September. The short rainy season takes place October to December, with a rapid decline in precipitation during January and February Figure 10 (right) and a mean temperature of 28˚C (map left). Between December and early March, Lamu county experiences a mostly dry weather system known as the Northeast monsoon (NEM). As March and April arrive, a transition phase occurs, during which the wind shifts in a direction from east to south. This brings in maritime air from the Indian Ocean, resulting in substantial rainfall referred to as the “long rains.” This rainy period extends from mid-April to the conclusion of June. Moving into July and August, the South-Easterly Monsoon (SEM) takes over, stabilizing the weather and ushering in cooler temperatures. From September to December, the dominance of the northeast monsoon returns, leading to the onset of the “short rains” between October and December. The pattern of rainfall is significantly impacted by the Monsoon winds Figure 1. Temperatures closely follow the rainfall patterns. While the temperature range spans from 23˚C to 32˚C across the county, the highest temperatures arise from January to March, while the coldest months between July and August.

The March-April-May (MAM) “long rain” seasonal trend depicted in the graph Figure 11 (left) for Lamu county from 1981 to 2022 reveals a concerning pattern of a linearly decreasing trend in rainfall. For a coastal community heavily reliant on agriculture and pastoralism, this negative trend in decreasing rainfall poses significant challenges. Reduced precipitation during the long rain season usually results in a prolonged drought, water scarcity, and diminished pastureland, leading to decreased agricultural yields and livestock productivity. The declining trend may also disrupt traditional farming and pastoral practices, impacting

food security, income generation, and overall community well-being. The October-November-December (OND) “short rain” seasonal trend displayed in the graph Figure 11 (right) for the same period demonstrates a positive and encouraging pattern of a linearly increasing trend in rainfall. This upward trend in precipitation has a good significant benefit for a coastal community who depends on agriculture and pastoralism. With increasing rainfall during the short rain season, there is a higher likelihood of improved water availability for crop irrigation and livestock watering, leading to enhanced agricultural yields and better pasture conditions. The surplus water can also help replenish groundwater reserves, which is crucial for sustaining the community’s water supply during the drier months. Additionally, the increase in rainfall can foster an environment conducive to diversifying crops, promoting better farming practices, and enhancing the resilience of the community’s agricultural and pastoral livelihoods.

The temporal monthly variation of the sea level anomaly, as depicted in the graph (Figure 12) highlights the alternating impacts of positive and negative anomalies on coastal areas and communities throughout the year. During the months with positive sea level anomalies (January, February, March, April, June,

July, August, September, and October), coastal regions experience elevated sea levels, leading to increased risks of coastal erosion, flooding, and salinization of freshwater sources. These challenges can threaten infrastructure, disrupt livelihoods, and trigger displacement in low-lying areas. On the other hand, during the months with negative sea level anomalies (May, November, and December), coastal areas face lower-than-average sea levels, potentially causing shallow water conditions and impacting navigation and access to jetty’s and landing sites.

Figure 13 shows the mean sea level rise for Lamu county between 2008 to 2100. It indicates an increasing trend. This projection has the possibility of some regions being submerged in future. This will cause some communities to be homeless, arable land, livelihood and properties destroyed, especially places along the coastline starting from Mkunumbi all the way to Ishakani. Currently the sea level in Lamu is at 0.12 m according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5.