The common opinion is that increasing CO₂-concentration in the atmosphere is the main reason for increasing mean global temperature [1] [2] [3] [4], and the Anthropogenic Heat Flux (AHF) will not cause global warming, but there are reports saying AHF must be considered [5] and there are reports saying heating from CO₂ is much less than expected [6]. To find out the relation between increasing CO₂-concentration and increasing temperature historical data will be analysed, mainly from ice core examination. An important question will be whether a part of AHF will accumulate in Earth climate system and thus become a reason for global warming.

Information of temperature and CO₂-koncentration in air from Vostok ice core examination [7] [8] and other similar examinations are important for understanding of global warming. In the Vostok ice core examination a period of 420,000 years from now has been analysed with high resolution.

As can be seen from Figure 1 maximum temperature and maximum CO₂-concentration occurs at −325,000, −240,000, −125,000 years from now. Time for minimum temperatures and minimum CO₂-concentration are timepoints when temperature and CO₂-concentration start to increase towards the following maximum point. ΔT is the difference between maximum and minimum values for temperture and ΔCO₂ is the difference between maximum and minimum values for CO₂-concentration.

The relation ΔT/ΔCO₂ is close to 0.12 ˚C/ppm for the three periods including maximum points for temperature and CO₂-concentration during 420,000 years (Table 1). This relation is very clear.

If this relation is applied to actual time, from 1970 until today, when the CO₂-concentration has increased from 320 to 420 ppm according to the Keeling curve [9] and the global surface temperature has increased 1.0˚C according to NASA GISS [10], there will be two different ways to use the relation ΔT/ΔCO₂ = 0.12.

1) increasing CO₂-concentration will increase temperature;

2) increasing temperature will increase CO₂-concentration.

The first case will give an expected temperature increase of 12˚C but temperature increase is only 1.0˚C, fortunately, so there is no support for this case.

The second case will give an expected increase of CO₂-concentration 8 ppm but the increase is in fact 100 ppm, so there is no support for this case either. The experience from 420,000 years will not explain the situation we have today. The reason for this is an important difference compared to 420,000 years before. Now we are several billions of people using our cars, heating our buildings, working in industries using fossil energy for production. Figure 1 demonstrate that ΔT/ΔCO₂ = 0.12 applied for 420,000 years but that is not the case now. We know that using fossil energy will bring CO₂ to the athmospere but if ΔT/ΔCO₂ = 0.12 not will apply now, why global warming?

Using fossil energy will also release heat to the Earth climate system. A part of that energy will accumulate in the athmospere and that will incresae the global mean temperature. Figures 2-4 demonstrates that process. Figure 2 demonstrates global temperature before the industrial era. When Sun energy is stable, then Earth global mean surface temperature is stable. From day to day the same pattern will be repeated.

Figure 2 represents the normal situation for a stable climate. Temperature will increase T₀ → T₁ during 12 hours of sunshine, but will go back to T₀ after 12 hours darkness (Table 2). Day 2 will be a repetition of Day 1.

Figure 3 represents the situation when Sun energy (A) plus a small energy supplement (a) occurs during 12 hours. Temperature will increase to T₁ + Δt after 12 hours, but will go back to T₀ after12 hours more (Table 3). Day 2 will be a repetition of Day 1. Mean temperature is still stable.

Figure 4 represents the situation when sun energy (A) and the energy supplement are 2a equally distributed over 24 hours. Temperature will increase after 12 hours during Day 1 to T₁ + Δt, but after 24 hours Day 1 temperature will be T₀ + Δt (Table 4).

This temperature will also be the start temperature of Day 2. This means that the energy amount 1b is accumulated in the climate system. After Day 2 accumulated energy is 2b. Every Day with energy amount of 2a introduced in the system will increase accumulated energy with the amount of 1b and temperature of one more step Δt.

According to Figure 4, 25% of all fossil energy used by mankind will accumulate into the Earth climate system if the energy consumption is fairly equal over 24 hours. Earth surface temperature is not stable, it is increasing continuously. Fossil energy consumption is mainly related to buildings (heating and air condition), transport (cars, airflights etc.) and industrial production. According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy, accumulated world energy consumption 1971-2018, was 3,800,378 TWh and 89% of fossil origin. Then 850,000 TWh is accumulated in the troposphere resulting in a global temperature increase of 0.8˚C which is a major part of the observed global temperature increase.

The author declares no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

Lindgren, M. (2021) Anthropogenic Heat Flux Will Affect Global Warming. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 11, 563-568. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2021.113034