TITLE:
Possible Trajectories of Agricultural Cropping Systems in China from 2011 to 2050
AUTHORS:
Junfang Zhao, Jianping Guo
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change; Agriculture in China; Northern Boundary of Cropping System
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.2 No.3,
September
26,
2013
ABSTRACT: Predicting the possible impacts of future climate change on
cropping systems can provide important theoretical support for reforming
cropping system and adjusting the distribution of agricultural production in
the future. The study was based on the daily data of future B2 climate scenario
(2011-2050) and baseline climate condition (1961-1990) from high resolution
regional climate model PRECIS (~50 km grid interval). According to climatic divisions of cropping systems in China,
the active accumulated temperature stably passing the daily average temperature
of 0°C, the extreme minimum temperature and the termination date passing the
daily average temperature of 20°C which were justified by dominance as a limitation
of different cropping systems in zero-grade zone were investigated. In
addition, the possible trajectories of different cropping systems in China from
2011 to 2050 were also analyzed and assessed. Under the projected future B2
climate scenario, from 2011 to 2050, the northern boundaries of double cropping
area and triple cropping area would move northward markedly. The most of the
present double cropping area would be replaced by the different triple cropping
patterns, while current double cropping area would shift towards areas
presently dominated by single cropping systems. Thus the shift of multiple
cropping areas would lead to a significant decrease of single cropping area.
Compared with China’s land area, the percentage cover of single cropping area
and double cropping area would decrease slowly, while percentage cover of
triple cropping area would gradually increase.