TITLE:
Methodology and Equations of Mineral Production Forecast—Part I. Crude Oil in the UK and Gold in Nevada, USA. Prediction of Late Stages of Production
AUTHORS:
Sergio Pérez Rodríguez
KEYWORDS:
Mineral; Mining; Oil; Gas; Montecarlo Simulation
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Geology,
Vol.3 No.5,
September
5,
2013
ABSTRACT: The equations of mineral production forecast link
the change in time of mineral reserves with the production and the ratio of
reserves to production. These equations allow us to model the development of the mineral resources evaluated at any
scale. Probabilistic bidimensional charts made from montecarlo simulations
provide intervals of confidence for the forecasts. The set of equations is devised and presented for a variety of
applications to the oil and gas industry, as well to the production of any
other mineral resource, either metals or non metals, whose ore deposit volumes
and production might be quantified. The cases studied in the UK and USA are at
late stages of production, periods for
what the equations are most suitable to be applied without further adjustments.
Experimental design allows the diagnosis of the likely values of the variables
pertaining to the
equations, in order to achieve the results provided by conventional production
forecasts or to explore other scenarios of investigation. The method can be
practical to evaluate commitments of production of mineral resources with time,
to support strategic plans for companies, corporations, countries or regions
based on those evaluations, for the screening and ranking of mineral assets
based on their production potential and many other tasks where the prediction
of future volumes of mineral production is required.