TITLE:
Comparative Skill of Numerical Weather Forecasts in Eastern Amazonia
AUTHORS:
Bergson Cavalcanti de Moraes, Douglas Batista da Silva Ferreira, Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho, Juarez Ventura de Oliveira, Everaldo Barreiros de Souza, Pedro Pereira Ferreira Júnior, Renata Kelen Cardoso Câmara, Edson José P. da Rocha, João Batista M. Ribeiro
KEYWORDS:
Meteorological Models; Mean Error; Root Mean Square Error; Precipitation; Eastern Amazonia
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.3 No.3,
July
8,
2013
ABSTRACT: The present study evaluates the performance of three numerical weather forecasting models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (BRAMS) and ETA Regional Model (ETA), by means of the Mean Error (ME) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), during the most rainy four months period (January to April 2012) on Eastern Amazonia. The models displayed errors of superestimation and underestimation with respect to the observed precipitation, mainly over center-north of Pará and all of Amapá, where the precipitation is higher. Among the analyzed models, GFS shows the best performance, except during January and March, when the model to underestimated precipitation, possibly due to the anomalously high values recorded.