TITLE:
ROC Analysis in Radiotherapy: A TCP Model-Based Test
AUTHORS:
Mairon M. Santos, Ubiraci P. C. Neves
KEYWORDS:
Prostate Cancer; Radiotherapy; Tumour Control Probability; Hypothesis Test; ROC Curve; Dawson-Hillen Model; Monte Carlo Simulation
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Applied Sciences,
Vol.3 No.2,
June
20,
2013
ABSTRACT: Several mathematical models have been proposed to describe the
dynamics of irradiated cancer cells and to evaluate the tumour control
probability (TCP). In this article, we propose a TCP model-based statistical
test for predicting the outcome of a radiation treatment. We determine the
foresight capability of prostate tumour erradication (cure) from Monte Carlo simulations of the Dawson-Hillen TCP model.
We construct the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the test from
the probability distributions of the fraction of remaining tumour cells for
simulated experiments that evolve either to cure or non-cure. Simulations show
that a similar procedure may be applicable to clinical data. Results suggest
that the evaluation of tumour sizes after the treatment has started may be used
for short-term prognosis.