TITLE:
China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicle Development Scenario Analysis Based on Life Time Cost Modelling
AUTHORS:
Xunmin Ou, Qian Zhang, Xu Zhang, Xiliang Zhang
KEYWORDS:
Life Time Cost; New Energy Vehicle; Scenario Analysis; China
JOURNAL NAME:
Low Carbon Economy,
Vol.4 No.2,
May
27,
2013
ABSTRACT: Based on the
analysis on the development trend of vehicle technology, vehicle price, vehicle
fuel economy and fuel supply price, the new energy vehicle (NEV) passenger car
development scale is projected on different scenario with the application of
life time cost model. Three scenarios are set to find electric vehicle (EV) and
fuel cell vehicle (FCV) development potential in future to their pessimistic
and optimistic assumptions in China. The results are demonstrated: 1) NEV
development needs a long time due to high initial cost for vehicle buyer; 2) EV
will develop quickly under if there is quick development of battery technology;
and 3) FCV can only
develop in a large scale in 20 - 30 years even in
the optimistic scenario.