TITLE:
Case Study: ENSO Events, Rainfall Variability and the Potential of SOI for the Seasonal Precipitation Predictions in Iran
AUTHORS:
Gheiby Abolhasan, Noorafshan Maryam
KEYWORDS:
ENSO; SOI; Rainfall Variability; Seasonal Precipitation Predictions
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.2 No.1,
March
27,
2013
ABSTRACT: The studies in recent
decades show that many natural disasters such as tropical severe storms,
hurricanes development, torrential rain, river flooding, and landslides in some
regions of the world and severe droughts and wildfires in other areas are due
to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This research aims to contribute to an
improved definition of the relation between ENSO and seasonal (autumn and
winter) variability of rainfall over Iran. The results show that during
autumn, the positive phase of SOI is associated with decrease in the rainfall
amount in most part of the country; negative phase of SOI is associated
with a significant increase in the rainfall amount. It is also found that,
during the winter time when positive phase of SOI is dominant, winter
precipitation increases in most areas of the eastern part of the country while
at the same time the decreases in the amount of rainfall in other parts is not
significant. Moreover, with negative phase of SOI in winter season the amount
of rainfall in most areas except south shores of Caspian Sea in the north
decreases, so that the decrease of rainfall amount in the eastern part is statistically
significant.