Article citationsMore>>

P. M. Jackson, M. D. Fehti and S. Fehti, “Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Law: A Test for Northern Cyprus, 1977-1996,” 2nd International Congress on Cyprus Stud- ies, Gazima?usa, 24-27 November, 1998, pp. 1-24.

has been cited by the following article:

• TITLE: The Effect of Federal Government Size on Long-Term Economic Growth in the United States, 1791-2009

  AUTHORS: Federico Guerrero, Elliott Parker

  KEYWORDS: Long-Term Economic Growth; Federal Government Size; Wagner’s Law; United States; Cointegration; Granger Causality; Vector Autoregression; Vector Error Correction Model

  JOURNAL NAME: Modern Economy, Vol.3 No.8, December 31, 2012

  ABSTRACT: We consider whether there is statistical evidence for a causal relationship between federal government expenditures and growth in real GDP in the United States, using available data going back to 1791. After studying the time-series properties of these variables for stationarity and cointegration, we investigate Granger causality in detail in the context of a Vector Error Correction Model. While we find causal evidence that faster GDP growth leads to faster growth in government spending, we find no evidence supporting the common assertion that a larger government sector leads to slower economic growth.