TITLE:
A Type of Combination Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Method and PLS
AUTHORS:
Liang Wan, Biao Luo, Hong-Mei Ji, Wei-Wei Yan
KEYWORDS:
PLS; Time Series Method; Combination Forecast Method; Sales Forecasts
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Operations Research,
Vol.2 No.4,
November
30,
2012
ABSTRACT: This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model and Partial least square regression model), after getting the predicted value of cigarette sales from these single models, we then employ the combination forecasting method based on Time Series method and PLS to predict the province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the accuracy of prediction is good which could provide a reliable reference to cigarette sales forecasting in Anhui province and its 17 cities.