TITLE:
Forecasting Model of Automobile Loan Based on Conditional Expectation
AUTHORS:
Liang Sun, Derong Tan, Yuqi Nie
KEYWORDS:
Automobile Loan, Conditional Expectation, Throughout Probability Theory
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.1 No.2,
August
27,
2010
ABSTRACT: A double forecasting model based on conditional expectation was proposed through probability distribution of demand of automobile loan. The demand of automobile loan is the sum of all compound variables which indicated that automobile loan was credited to customer occurring in a certain period of time. Probability distribution of automobile loan was acquired using throughout probability theory. In view of such a fact, demand of automobile loan can be viewed as an conditional mathematic expectation. The forecasting model is proposed using growing function. Theoretical analysis and Case study shows that model based on conditional expectation is better than other model available with respect to forecasting demand of automobile loan.