TITLE:
Long-Term Electricity Demand in Côte d’Ivoire: End-Use Scenario Modelling, Sensitivity Analysis and Retrospective Evaluation
AUTHORS:
Aka Jacques Adon, N’da Amoin Edith Julie Kouadio, Arona Diedhiou, Yacouba Moumouni, Xavier Bouo-Bella, Saleye Yahaya, Yao Tchetche, Aka Boko
KEYWORDS:
Electricity Demand Forecasting, MAED-2, Scenario Analysis, Retrospective Evaluation, Côte D’Ivoire, Energy Planning
JOURNAL NAME:
Smart Grid and Renewable Energy,
Vol.17 No.10,
October
29,
2026
ABSTRACT: Reliable long-term electricity-demand projections are essential for power-system expansion in rapidly electrifying economies. This study presents long-term electricity-demand projections for Côte d’Ivoire over the 2013-2045 period. The Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2), developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was used to assess electricity demand under alternative socio-economic and technological development scenarios, with 2013 as the base year. Four scenarios Low (LS), Reference (RS), High (HS), and Optimistic (OS) were considered. By 2045, projected electricity demand reaches 77755.1 GWh under LS, 112978.9 GWh under RS, 176554.3 GWh under HS, and 295542.7 GWh under OS, corresponding to endpoint-implied compound annual growth rates of 8.19%, 9.46%, 11.00%, and 12.80%, respectively. The scenario pathways were retrospectively compared with reported electricity statistics over 2013-2024. Reported electricity supplied to the domestic distribution network remained below the low-growth pathway throughout the post-2013 comparison period. Over 2020-2024, the mean absolute percentage error between the scenario pathways and observed supply ranged from 23.1% (LS) to 61.4% (OS), and the supply observed in 2024 corresponded to the level reached by LS around 2021.