TITLE:
Using Cumulative Growth Prediction Model to Study the Variation Law of Waterflooding Volumetric Sweep Efficiency
AUTHORS:
Enhui Sun, Qin Peng
KEYWORDS:
Waterflooding Volumetric Sweep Efficiency, Cumulative Growth Prediction Model, Production Years, Water Content, Zhang Jinqing’s Waterflooding Curve
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Power and Energy Engineering,
Vol.14 No.10,
October
28,
2026
ABSTRACT: In the evaluation system for oil and gas field development, the waterflooding volumetric sweep efficiency is a crucial parameter that reflects the balanced development status of oilfield waterflooding and the impact of reservoir heterogeneity on development. To enhance the reliability of predicting waterflooding volumetric sweep efficiency, two cumulative growth prediction models, namely the HCZ model and the Hubbert model are selected. Through dimensionless mathematical transformation, dimensionless correlation equations for waterflooding volumetric sweep efficiency of the two models are derived, and standardized prediction charts are established. Combined with Zhang Jinqing’s waterflooding curve, a quantitative relationship between waterflooding volumetric sweep efficiency and oilfield production years is established, thereby predicting the variation pattern of waterflooding volumetric sweep efficiency. Based on production data from Oilfield C shows that the adaptability of the HCZ model is significantly better than that of the Hubbert model, making it more suitable for quantitative prediction of waterflooding volumetric sweep efficiency in this type of reservoir. The research indicates that when development years less than 15a, when the water content is less than 90%, Ev exhibits an upward-curving increase; when development years is greater than 15a and the water content is greater than 90%, Ev shows a gradual increase. The available unswept areas within the reservoir significantly decrease, and the growth trend of waterflooding volumetric sweep efficiency gradually slows down, entering a phase of steady growth. This method reflects the waterflooding development status in different production stages of the oilfield and is practical for predicting and evaluating development indicators in the later stages of oilfield production.