TITLE:
Decision Analysis on Choice of Conservation Baseline Data for Climate Change Resilient Project Design: Insights from Tumbatu Island in Zanzibar
AUTHORS:
Mkama Thomas Manyama, Sixbert Simon Mwanga, Veronika Gerald Kimario, John Beteri, Elifadhili Shaidi, Boniventure Herman Mchomvu, Martha Michael Masole, Idrisa Yussuf Hamad, Baraka Joel Matulu
KEYWORDS:
Conservation Baseline Data, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Climate Resilience Project, Spatial Non-Stationarity, Tumbatu Island, Zanzibar
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics,
Vol.14 No.10,
October
26,
2026
ABSTRACT: Selecting robust conservation baselines is essential for designing climate-resilient development interventions, but it remains difficult in data-scarce Small Island Developing States (SIDS). This study provides an empirical spatial multi-criteria decision analysis framework that addresses baseline data selection challenges. Tumbatu Island in the Zanzibar Archipelago was used as a case study to prioritize five fundamental baseline-data thematic domains, namely, biophysical and environmental, climate and weather, institutional and governance, socio-economic and livelihood, and ecosystem services, which are considered significant for climate-resilient project design. The framework integrates literature synthesis, participatory focus group discussions (FGDs), key informant interviews (KIIs), and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The study involved a total of eight (8) FGDs sessions and sixty-four (64) KIIs across the four shehias of Gomani, Jongowe, Mtakuja, and Uvivini. We synthesized AHP-derived priority weights with census population figures (total population 4935 across an inhabited land area of 8.98 km2, representing an average density of ~549.5 people/km2). We spatially modelled this using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation in ArcGIS. AHP pairwise comparison yielded high structural consistency (Consistency Ratio, CR = 0.083