TITLE:
Public Debt and Economic Growth in the CEMAC Zone: A Critical Threshold Analysis: 1990-2024
AUTHORS:
Chuaibou Mounmom, Ntièche Adamou, Nzuko Silapa Jeff Keryl
KEYWORDS:
Public Debt, Economic Growth, PSTR, Critical Threshold, CEMAC
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.16 No.5,
October
21,
2026
ABSTRACT: This work aims to highlight the existence of a critical threshold in the relationship between public debt and economic growth in the CEMAC zone, with a view to updating existing research on the subject and providing the sub-region’s monetary and budgetary authorities with empirical data to reassess the relevance of the community debt ceiling of 70% of GDP. The methodology adopted for our work is quantitative, supported by a hypothetico-deductive approach. It is based on an econometric analysis using panel data covering the six CEMAC countries over the period 1990-2024, using secondary data obtained from the IMF, the World Bank, and the BEAC, which were processed using Stata and R software. A panel smooth transition model (PSTR) was used. It emerges that public debt has a non-linear effect on economic growth in the CEMAC zone, with a critical threshold estimated at 51.3% of GDP (an indicative transition point rather than a precisely delimited value), significantly lower than the current community ceiling. Hence our recommendations concern the review of the multilateral surveillance mechanism, the improvement of the quality of public spending financed by borrowing, the creation of countercyclical fiscal buffers, and the acceleration of economic diversification in the sub-region.