TITLE:
Analysis of the Competitiveness of China’s Agricultural Product Exports to ASEAN and the Influencing Factors—Based on the Decomposition of the CMS Model
AUTHORS:
Chengnan Ruan, Lemin Bei, Yuanyan Zhu
KEYWORDS:
Agricultural Products, China’s Exports to ASEAN, CMS Model, Competitiveness Effect
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.17 No.10,
October
19,
2026
ABSTRACT: Based on the Constant Market Share Model (CMS) and data from ASEAN stats (2006 - 2025), this paper decomposes China’s agricultural product export growth to ASEAN into structural effect, competitiveness effect, and second-order effect, systematically examining the competitive advantages and disadvantages of China’s agricultural products in the ASEAN market. The findings show that: the structural effect is the primary factor driving export fluctuations, with the growth effect dominating; the competitiveness effect is the second most important factor, mainly driven by the specific competitiveness effect, whose absolute contribution expanded continuously over the sample period; the product effect contributes minimally, indicating a low matching degree between China’s export structure and ASEAN’s import structure. By category, animal and plant products are significantly affected by growth and competitiveness effects, while animal/vegetable oils and processed agricultural products show gradually enhancing competitiveness. The paper suggests that China should promote agricultural supply-side structural reform, optimize export structure, and deepen trade cooperation with ASEAN.