TITLE:
From Econometrics to E.conometrics: Models, Forecasting, and Conditions of Validity
AUTHORS:
Luciana La Stella
KEYWORDS:
E.conometrics, Economic Forecasting, Economic Epistemology, Artificial Intelligence, Validation, Controlled Epistemological Circularity, Algorithmic Reflexivity, Economic Policy
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.17 No.9,
September
24,
2026
ABSTRACT: The transition from econometrics to e.conometrics proposed by Antonio Simeone, Marco D’Ambra and Paolo Savona on this Journal arises from the need to model economic systems characterised by nonlinearity, interdependence, shocks, emergent behaviour and increasingly rich, high-frequency information. This paper develops the concepts of controlled epistemological circularity, dynamic validity, and algorithmic reflexivity to distinguish forecasting from explanation and intervention. The paper argues that stronger predictive systems must state their uncertainty, applicability conditions, and limitations when informing economic-policy decisions.