TITLE:
Species Abundance and Ecological Niche Modelling of Mondia whitei in Ntcheu, Malawi
AUTHORS:
James Mandela Mbeya, Thomson Msiska, Willard Mbewe
KEYWORDS:
Mondia whitei, Species Distribution Modeling, Climate Change, Habitat Suitability, Conservation
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Access Library Journal,
Vol.13 No.9,
September
24,
2026
ABSTRACT: Mondia whitei, a medicinal plant of significant cultural and economic importance in Malawi, faces increasing threats due to overharvesting, habitat degradation, and climate change. Despite its high demand in traditional medicine, limited research has been conducted on its abundance, distribution, and habitat suitability in Malawi. This study assessed the population dynamics of Mondia whitei in Lizulu and Zuze, Ntcheu, and modelled its ecological niche with MaxEnt to predict current and future distribution patterns under climatic change scenarios. Abundance and density were higher in Zuze than in Lizulu, suggesting that localized environmental conditions and, potentially, differing harvesting pressures are associated with the species’ status at each site. The species distribution model (SDM) identified potential evapotranspiration (PET), isothermality (Bio3), and temperature seasonality (Bio4) as the variables contributing most to habitat suitability. Climate projections for 2055 under the HadGEM2-ES global climate model (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) suggest an expansion of climatically suitable habitat, particularly in Dedza and Ntcheu, offering potential opportunities for conservation and sustainable harvesting, though this projection carries the limitations discussed below.