TITLE:
Earthquake Forecasting by Lunar-Solar Dynamics
AUTHORS:
Michael John Leigh Chapman
KEYWORDS:
Earthquake, Hourly Forecasts, Lunar-Solar Dynamics, Historic Correlation
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Earthquake Research,
Vol.15 No.4,
September
17,
2026
ABSTRACT: This paper presents an analysis for earthquakes in 3 regions, including Asia Pacific (AP), Americas (AM) and Europe-Africa (EA), with Asia-Minor and relations with lunar/solar orbit data over the last approximately 17 years, with a view to enabling reliable earthquake forecasts. The evidence indicates a complex relationship between Earth, Moon, and Sun is largely responsible for the timing of earthquakes. The understanding of the lunar and solar orbit as a major influence is key to accurate advance prediction of earthquakes on an hourly basis. The method relies on correlation of historic solar-lunar geo-spatial criteria occurring simultaneously with significant quake events with known location and time of occurrence to within 1 hour, with projections based on expected lunar-solar geo-spatial criteria based on established computations. Results of analyses carried out between July 2023 and June 2024 indicate that for AP about 63% of actual events had effective forecasts, while for AM about 76% of actual events had effective forecasts. The effectiveness for EA was lower at 45%. Although far from foolproof, these techniques represent a step towards providing meaningful real-time short-term forecasts for earthquakes in all parts of the world.