TITLE:
The Efficiency Structural Trap: Carbon Mix Intensity Dominates Energy Intensity in Fossil-Dependent Systems—Evidence from a Seven-Factor LMDI Decomposition of Côte d’Ivoire (2000-2024)
AUTHORS:
Jean Jacques Kouame, Mohamed Koïta Sako, Sampson Oladapo Oyedele, Sylvain Gnamien, Boko Aka
KEYWORDS:
LMDI Decomposition, Efficiency Structural Trap, Carbon Intensity, Energy Efficiency, Fugitive Emissions, Côte d’Ivoire, Sub-Saharan Africa
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Energy Efficiency,
Vol.15 No.3,
September
10,
2026
ABSTRACT: Studies on energy transition generally treat electrification and energy efficiency as complementary climate levers. In fossil dominated electricity systems, however, electrification and energy efficiency are linked through a common carbon transmission channel, the carbon intensity of electricity generation, which can progressively offset their expected mitigation gains. This study applies a seven-factor LMDI-I decomposition to the energy sector emissions of Côte d’Ivoire over 2000-2024, covering IPCC categories 1.A (fuel combustion) and 1.B (upstream fugitive HC emissions). Data combine the national GHG inventory (IGES, 2000-2022) and ANARE-CI statistics (2023-2024), with inter-source coherence validated at 2eq, +11.4% of total emissions growth). The PSE_index stands at 1.31. Granger causality tests on stationary first-difference series reveal no robust temporal precedence (CI → IE: p = 0.42; n.s.), supporting the interpretation of the EST as a strictly descriptive, policy-oriented indicator. Over the study period, the per-unit climate value of energy savings increased by 69.3%: each unit of energy saved in 2024 avoids more emissions than in 2000, because the aggregate carbon intensity of the energy system is higher. At the system level, however, this gain is more than offset by aggregate energy-system carbonisation, which outpaces efficiency improvements by a factor of 1.31. Counterfactual analysis demonstrates that decarbonising the aggregate energy-system carbon intensity (electricity, transport and upstream hydrocarbons combined) constitutes the most effective mitigation lever. Freezing carbon intensity at its 2000 level would have avoided 10,045 kt CO2eq by 2024, approximately twice the emissions avoided under a scenario of stabilised energy intensity (CF1/CF3 = 2.03). IEA/Ember data confirm that CI increases are common to all sampled African economies except South Africa. These results demonstrate that, without simultaneous decarbonisation of this aggregate carbon-intensity term, the mitigation effectiveness of electrification and energy efficiency policies may be progressively constrained by increasing carbon intensity, independent of their technical performance. This mechanism may extend beyond Côte d’Ivoire to other rapidly electrifying, fossil dependent economies.