TITLE:
A Techno-Economic Approach for Green Transition of an Oil-Exporting Country to a Solar, Hydrogen, and Gas Turbine Economy
AUTHORS:
Mohammed Mohammed, Sue Impey, Pericles Pilidis
KEYWORDS:
Electrolysis, Renewable Energy, Decarbonisation, Solar Photovoltaics
JOURNAL NAME:
Energy and Power Engineering,
Vol.18 No.9,
September
2,
2026
ABSTRACT: This study develops a national-scale techno-economic framework to assess how an oil-exporting country could transition from fossil-fuel dependence toward a solar-hydrogen-gas turbine energy economy by 2050. Unlike previous studies that mainly examine sectoral decarbonisation or renewable deployment in isolation, this work links domestic energy self-sufficiency, hydrogen export replacement, solar PV deployment, electrolyser sizing, hydrogen storage, backup H2CCGT capacity, and capital and operational expenditure within a staged transition pathway. Two scenarios are analysed: first, a winter self-sufficiency scenario designed to meet domestic electricity and hydrogen demand under the most restrictive seasonal conditions; and second, an export scenario in which green hydrogen replaces 2100 PJ∙yr−1 of current fossil-energy exports. The results indicate that by 2050 Libya would require approximately 268 GW of solar PV for domestic winter self-sufficiency and 657 GW for the hydrogen export scenario, corresponding to solar farm areas of approximately 4900 km2 and 12,033 km2, respectively. The export scenario requires approximately 491 GW of electrolyser capacity, 78,614 tonnes of hydrogen storage, and 54 H2CCGT units. The estimated total transition cost is approximately USD 1796.9 billion, including USD 1097 billion CAPEX and USD 699.64 billion OPEX. These findings highlight the scale of infrastructure, investment, and policy coordination required for fossil-fuel-exporting economies to maintain energy revenues while decarbonising domestic and export systems.