TITLE:
From Commodity Dependence to Industrial Competitiveness: Rethinking Africa’s Position in the Global Rubber Value Chain
AUTHORS:
Oyeyemi Kale
KEYWORDS:
Natural Rubber, Global Value Chains, Political Economy, Industrial Competitiveness, AfCFTA, Downstream Value Addition, Africa, Industrial Policy
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.17 No.8,
August
28,
2026
ABSTRACT: Africa has emerged as the world’s fastest-growing natural rubber-producing region, yet it continues to capture only a small proportion of the value generated across the global rubber value chain. Despite rising production, most African producers remain concentrated in upstream activities involving raw latex and technically specified rubber exports, while downstream manufacturing, branding, and distribution are dominated by firms outside the continent. This study examines the structural, institutional, and political economic factors constraining Africa’s industrial upgrading within the global rubber value chain and evaluates emerging opportunities created by evolving geopolitical dynamics, sustainability regulations, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The study adopts a qualitative comparative research design supported by descriptive quantitative analysis. Secondary data were compiled from FAOSTAT, the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), the World Bank, African Development Bank, Afreximbank, UNCTAD, OECD, IEA, and other authoritative sources. Drawing on Global Value Chain (GVC) theory and Political Economy theory, the study analyses production trends, value-chain governance, and cross-country institutional differences among major African rubber-producing economies. The findings indicate that Africa’s principal constraint is not production capacity but limited downstream value capture arising from weak industrial coordination, infrastructure deficits, technological capability gaps, fragmented policy frameworks, and concentrated buyer power within global rubber markets. Comparative evidence further shows that Côte d’Ivoire’s recent production expansion reflects stronger institutional support and smallholder integration than the concession-based historical model observed in Liberia, although significant barriers to industrial upgrading remain across the continent. The study argues that AfCFTA, supply-chain diversification, sustainability-driven market restructuring, and targeted development finance provide a strategic opportunity for Africa to transition from commodity dependence toward regional processing and competitive manufacturing. It concludes that a phased industrial strategy prioritising productivity enhancement, traceability systems, technically specified rubber processing, industrial rubber goods, and progressively higher-value manufacturing offers the most commercially viable pathway for improving regional value capture and industrial competitiveness.