TITLE:
Overachievers and Underachievers in the FIFA World Cup, 1994-2022
AUTHORS:
Paul M. Sommers
KEYWORDS:
FIFA World Cup, Soccer, World Cup Predicted Points
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.14 No.8,
August
27,
2026
ABSTRACT: A regression model is used to predict points (countries are awarded 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, and 0 points for a loss) in the men’s FIFA World Cup between 1994 and 2022. Key predictor variables include population size of the 248 country-tournament observations and their GDP per capita in their year of participation. Both variables are statistically significant. Predicted point totals are then compared to actual points to compile a list of overachievers and underachievers over the last eight World Cup tournaments.