TITLE:
LLM-Driven Probabilistic Reasoning Interventions: Effects on Senior Secondary Students’ Data Literacy and Statistical Thinking
AUTHORS:
Qiang Li, Rui Guo
KEYWORDS:
Generative Artificial Intelligence, Large Language Models, Probabilistic Reasoning, Statistical Thinking, Data Literacy, Mathematics Education, Cognitive Mediation
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Intelligent Learning Systems and Applications,
Vol.18 No.3,
August
4,
2026
ABSTRACT: Against the integration of generative AI into mathematics education, large language models (LLMs) reshape the instructional design of probability and statistics, a core branch of stochastic mathematics focusing on uncertain reasoning. Drawing on statistical cognition theory and computational mathematics pedagogy, this study constructs an LLM-assisted cognitive intervention framework targeting probabilistic reasoning bias correction. This research aims to examine how AI-powered instructional scaffolding mitigates intuitive cognitive biases, improves adolescents’ probabilistic reasoning proficiency, and fosters data literacy. A controlled experimental design was adopted, with 124 Grade 11 students from intact randomly allocated classes split into an LLM intervention group and a conventional lecture control group. Data were collected via pretest-posttest assessments of statistical thinking, probabilistic reasoning error diagnostic tests, and standardized self-report scales, followed by structural equation modeling (SEM) quantitative analysis. Three key findings emerged: First, LLM-supported dynamic questioning, counterexample generation, and personalized error remediation significantly elevated formal stochastic reasoning performance and reduced heuristic misconceptions. Second, the intervention group achieved statistically meaningful gains in statistical perception, probabilistic modeling, and data interpretation relative to the control group. Third, cognitive engagement fully mediates the association between LLM instruction and data literacy growth, with no statistically significant direct effect of LLM intervention on data literacy. This study innovatively embeds generative AI into senior secondary probability teaching, delivers a replicable instructional framework for cultivating student data literacy, and provides empirical and theoretical evidence for AI-enabled mathematics education.