TITLE:
Economic Implications of the Iran and Israel Conflict: Evidence from Puntland, Somalia
AUTHORS:
Ahmed Abdullahi Mohamed, Abdirizak Said Mohamed, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, Mohamed Mohamoud Mohamed
KEYWORDS:
Iran-Israel Conflict, Fuel Prices, Food Commodity Prices, Geopolitical Shocks, Puntland Somalia
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.14 No.7,
July
14,
2026
ABSTRACT: This study examines the economic implications of the Iran-Israel conflict on Puntland, Somalia, focusing specifically on changes in fuel prices and selected essential food commodity prices. The study uses a descriptive and analytical research design based on secondary weekly market price data collected from the State Bank of Puntland, international energy reports, and global trade databases between January 2025 and February 2026. The conflict shock period was defined as the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel during 2025-2026, while baseline prices were derived from the pre-escalation period. The findings indicate that petrol and diesel prices increased by 30.77% and 31.25% respectively, during the conflict period. Selected food commodities such as Timirta (Qamar), Xamse Bariis Hindi, and Timirta (Saad) also recorded substantial price increases. The study argues that Puntland’s high dependence on imported fuel and food commodities amplifies the transmission of global oil and shipping shocks into local markets. However, the study recognizes that additional factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, transportation bottlenecks, seasonal demand variations, and import taxes may also contribute to domestic price changes. The study concludes that Puntland remains highly vulnerable to external geopolitical and economic shocks due to its import-dependent economic structure. Since the analysis relies on descriptive secondary data, the findings demonstrate associations rather than direct causal relationships. The study recommends strengthening local production, improving energy diversification, and establishing strategic reserves to reduce future economic vulnerability.