TITLE:
From Unipolar Hegemony to Multipolar Contestation: Middle East Conflicts and the Restructuring of Regional Order, 2021-2026
AUTHORS:
Tao Zhai
KEYWORDS:
Middle East Conflicts, Power Reconfiguration, Resonance Effect, Humanitarian Crisis, “Axis of Resistance”
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.14 No.6,
June
29,
2026
ABSTRACT: After the 2011 Arab Spring, the Middle East plunged into more than a decade of turmoil. The period from 2021 to 2026 witnessed a series of watershed events that fundamentally reshaped the region’s geopolitical landscape. Adopting literature review and historical analysis methods, this study draws on official reports of international organizations, authoritative media coverage, and core academic publications to systematically examine the trajectories of five major conflicts: the May 2021 Israel-Hamas escalation, the Yemen war, the October 2023 Israel-Hamas war and its regional spillover, the collapse of the Syrian regime, and the evolving situation in Iraq. The research reveals a pronounced “resonance effect” in this wave of Middle Eastern conflicts—a phenomenon in which distinct conflicts become mutually reinforcing and escalate through chains of proxies, resource reallocation, and geopolitical linkages. The spillover of the Gaza war directly reduced Iranian aid to Syria, hastening the fall of the Assad regime; the Red Sea crisis systematically disrupted global supply chains; and the superimposed conflicts resulted in approximately 1.5 million deaths and tens of millions of displaced persons—the gravest humanitarian catastrophe of the 21st century. In terms of structural impact, the wars dismantled U.S. unipolar dominance in the region, elevated the roles of Russia and China, and accelerated the formation of a multipolar order. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” suffered a devastating blow, while Saudi Arabia and Türkiye notably expanded their influence. Moreover, the economic transformation of Gulf states was interrupted, and both education and healthcare systems across the region largely collapsed. Although a relative calm has prevailed in the Middle East since late 2025, the three root causes—the unresolved Palestinian question, sectarian hegemonic rivalries, and external intervention—remain entrenched, making the future trajectory highly uncertain.