TITLE:
Evaluating the NFL Draft, 2000-2010, Using Two Different Draft Pick Trade Value Charts
AUTHORS:
William Davis High, Paul Martin Sommers
KEYWORDS:
National Football League (NFL), NFL Draft, Draft Pick Values
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.14 No.6,
June
29,
2026
ABSTRACT: The authors use data on Day 1 National Football League (NFL) draft trades between 2000 and 2010 to assess how well (or poorly) two different NFL draft pick trade value charts explain weighted career approximate values of these drafted players, all of whom have completed their NFL careers. One chart, devised in the early 1990s by then-Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson, enjoys widespread use and appears at Pro-Football-Reference.com. The alternate chart assigns more value to players picked after the first round of the seven-round draft. Simple regression analysis shows that the latter chart does a vastly superior job of predicting the eventual success of players exchanged on Day 1 of the annual NFL draft.