TITLE:
Co-Integration Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in the Countries of the East African Community
AUTHORS:
Alliance Murhula Safari, Serge Ngendakumana, Stany Vwima Ngezirabona
KEYWORDS:
Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, Sustainable Development
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Environmental Protection,
Vol.17 No.6,
June
26,
2026
ABSTRACT: This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in East African Community (EAC) countries between 1992 and 2020, in response to climate commitments including the Paris Agreement. Using an ARDL model, the study captures the short- and long-term effects of variables specifically the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the energy consumption, and the industrialization. The results show an inverted U-shaped relationship: CO2 emissions increase with economic growth up to a certain threshold and then decrease beyond that income level. In the short term, an economic growth increases emissions in some countries but in the long term, it is positively correlated with increased emissions. This study highlights the need for sustainable policies that maintain suitable agricultural and industrial practices while enabling economic growth that matches well with climate goals.