TITLE:
The Impact and Mechanisms of Different ENSO Types on the Interannual Variability of Summer Dry-Hot Events in Mauritania
AUTHORS:
Eida Savi, Liwei Huo
KEYWORDS:
Probability Index, Mauritania, EP and CP ENSO Types, Dry-Hot Events, Compound Climate Extremes, Interannual Variability, Sahelian Climate
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.14 No.6,
June
15,
2026
ABSTRACT: Understanding the drivers of compound dry-hot extremes is crucial for climate risk assessment in the Sahel, a region highly vulnerable to hydroclimatic variability. This study investigates the interannual variability and mechanisms of summer (June-September, JJAS) compound dry-hot events over Mauritania during 1979-2025, with particular focus on the distinct roles of preceding spring Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) ENSO types. A Probability Index (PI), derived from the joint probability density function of temperature and precipitation, is employed to characterize compound events. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis reveals two dominant modes: EOF1 (51.29% variance) exhibits a spatially coherent country-wide pattern in which negative PI anomalies correspond to more severe compound dry-hot conditions, while EOF2 (16.51%) displays a pronounced north-south dipole. Further analysis establishes that PC1 is significantly correlated with the EP ENSO index (r = 0.55, p p