TITLE:
A Mixed Model Approach to Forecasting CO2 Emissions from Sudan’s Energy Sector
AUTHORS:
Maria H. Mohamed, Altaiyb Omer Ahmed Mohmmed, Mohammedelameen Eissa Qurashi, Mubarak H. Elhafian
KEYWORDS:
ARCH, ARIMA, Dioxide Emissions, Energy Sector
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Data Analysis and Information Processing,
Vol.14 No.2,
May
30,
2026
ABSTRACT: The study models annual (1970-2023) percentages of energy-related CO2 emissions in Sudan using ARIMA for the mean process and ARCH for conditional variance. After differencing to attain stationarity, several ARIMA ranks are compared; residual heteroskedasticity motivates an ARCH extension. The authors finally adopt an ARCH (2) specification and generate 10-year forecasts. They conclude that the ARCH (2) model better captures volatility and yields more reliable predictions than the tested ARIMA alternatives.