TITLE:
Reverse Backlash under Polarization: Panel Evidence on U.S. Immigration Attitudes across Two Elections, 2016 and 2024
AUTHORS:
Espina-Baeza Imanol, Lasala-Blanco Narayani
KEYWORDS:
Reverse Backlash, Polarization, Anti-immigration Attitudes, Public Opinion
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Political Science,
Vol.16 No.3,
June
2,
2026
ABSTRACT: Do voters with negative attitudes toward undocumented immigrants moderate their views once a candidate or a party running on an anti-immigrant platform wins? Using American National Election Studies (ANES) panel data spanning the 2016 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections, we assess reverse-backlash hypotheses. We find limited post-election moderation among Republicans who expressed the most negative pre-election views, while Democrats and Independents become modestly more negative after Trump’s election. Over 2016-2024, within-person moderation is evident: individuals with initially more negative views tend to become less negative by 2024. These shifts coincide with salient elite rhetoric and policy change; we interpret them as associations consistent with reverse-backlash dynamics.