TITLE:
China’s Economic Transformation 2000-2035: Structural Changes, Productivity Changes, and Future Growth Paths
AUTHORS:
Varsha Xueying Liu
KEYWORDS:
China’s Economic Transformation, Structural Change, Total Factor Productivity (TFP), Service-Manufacturing Integration
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Business and Management,
Vol.14 No.3,
May
29,
2026
ABSTRACT: This study systematically analyzes China’s economic transformation, with the empirical analysis covering the 2000-2025 period and the forecast projecting future growth paths from 2026 through 2035, exploring the interactions between structural changes, productivity dynamics, and policy interventions. Using a mixed-methods method that combines descriptive statistical analysis, shift-share decomposition, panel econometric models and other related frameworks (like the Levinsohn-Petrin TFP estimation), and ARIMA forecasting and predicting with case scenario analysis, the research analyzes these sector-based contribution patterns and will investigate these service-manufacturing integration results along with other relevant effects. The findings indicate of three highly critical changes here: first, the investment-driven growth model during years of 1998-2015 had led to 68.3% of GDP growth per worker but created much more structural imbalances that is calling for quite challenging and hard changes; second, service sector productivity has continued to be lagged behind areas like manufacturing, yet more and more service inputs to manufacturing significantly improve when compared to service productivity, and this is suggesting of more and more integration that gives us very good pathways for solving Baumol’s disease; third, housing market policies led to much more distributional consequences and effects that are benefiting so many middle-aged households while disadvantaging lot more and many other younger cohorts. The analysis shows that achieving and attaining of China’s 2035 development objectives definitely needs about 5.77% average annual growth, with service-manufacturing integration, digital-green transformation synergies (the interactive productivity premium generated when digital infrastructure is coupled with renewable energy), and new quality productive forces (advanced productivity driven by technological innovation and data elements) determining our future growth trajectories.